Covid vsccine

I thought the decision by the CDC in May to stop tracking break through cases for vaccinated individuals unless they led to hospitalization was a bit odd.  Seems like it may not have been the best idea after all:

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-30/cdc-scaled-back-hunt-for-breakthrough-cases-just-as-the-delta-variant-grew


"“When I saw CDC was going to stop tracking vaccinated people who get infected, my heart sank,” said Charity Dean, who helped lead California’s response to Covid as the state health department’s assistant director. “We lost our shot at being able to characterize how this variant is moving through the population and how new variants might emerge.”

“The more data you have, the better decisions you can make. So why would they knowingly turn away data which historically has been really important to have?” said Michael Kinch, director of the Center for Research Innovation in Business at Washington University in St. Louis. “For an administration that said they’ll be driven by the science, it makes no scientific sense.”

The virus is spreading and mutating primarily amongst the unvaccinated, due in large part to prematurely-relaxed masking and social distancing guidelines.  That advanced spread, when combined with the vaccinated population, is likelier to create mutated versions of the virus that are more infectious to vaccinated and unvaccinated folks alike.  And, vaccine-resistant strains like Delta can be transmitted by the vaccinated, even if that vaccinated person doesn't experience any symptoms his/herself.

In other words, the irresponsibility of folks unwilling to get vaccinated who, at the same time, are taking advantage of the relaxed restrictions by re-entering public life without taking any personal responsibility, are creating vaccine-resistant strains of the virus that impact all of us.  Without putting too fine a point on it, the selfish actions of a certain segment of society are prolonging this pandemic through irresponsible behavior and selfishness.

That's what is going on. 🤦🏻‍♂️

I read that paper earlier today.  It's exactly what I'm describing above.  The issue is a combination of unvaxx'd people hitting the streets again and prematurely-relaxed masking/social distancing guidelines.  In particular, the combination of the two is creating very specifically vaccine-resistant strains that are transmitting rapidly. I'm not sharing my own hypothetical; i'm summarizing the findings of the paper cited in the article you posted.  

Did you read the paper itself, or just the article that mentions it?

Regarding the P-town outbreak: zero deaths. Just under half of the vaccinated folks who tested positive were asymptomatic. Two of the four hospitalized breakthrough cases had underlying conditions. But again: zero deaths.

Meanwhile, 97% of hospitalizations and 99.5% of deaths in the US are amongst the unvaccinated. So i wonder what the "39% effective" is in regards to. If you have a link, I'd love to see it.

You're correct. There were two primary endpoints to the efficacy studies - one was reducing COVID19, the other was reducing severe COVID19. Reduction of infections was never a target. The vaccine is there to reduce disease... it's similar to the distinction between being HIV positive and having AIDS.

There was a study about 20 years ago that looked at vaccination and the measles in Europe. Unsurprisingly vaccinated people in highly vaccinated populations were the least likely to get it, and on the other end unvaccinated people in highly unvaccinated populations were the most likely to get it. But, vaccinated people in unvaccinated populations were more likely to get it than unvaccinated people in highly vaccinated populations.

I don't think there's a feasible way to snuff out the virus. I think the original variant could possibly have been contained, but since you're dealing with selective pressure that increases transmissibility, each successive wave requires the percentage of recovered / vaccinated people has to be higher and higher to prevent reinfection. You end up chasing your tail, especially if the increase in transmissibility is coupled with decreased vaccination efficacy.

On the other hand, all the data out of every country shows that having the vaccine gives protection against both symptomatic illness and even more protection against hospitalization. That's a good thing, and that needs to be the news.

One thing about the recent CDC paper about the outbreak - the outbreak was 85% male. The paper notes


Those large public gatherings were, apparently, Bear Week. So, like with most / all observational studies, there's a very real risk of bias and confounding because of uncontrolled aspects. So, we should take the authors at their word!

- This is *not* sufficient to draw conclusions about the vaccine efficacy
- There's an aspect of detection bias
- This may be confounded by population bias

Push back against irresponsible reporting and media narratives - both from the media AND the CDC!

eradication of the virus through vaccines was never the goal. The goal was/is to reduce deaths and hospitalization. The virus was always going to mutate. People are blaming the unvaccinated on the delta variant but there were already like 6 different strains of the virus before any vaccine was even available. This is evolution at its finest.

We have to learn to live with COVID, period. We need to stop blaming each other, and we need to stop making decisions based on fear. We need better messaging from the higher ups and we need decisions that balance public health with the economy and with the diseases of despair. We’re so single minded focused on COVID that almost no one is talking about child abuse, suicide, drug addiction, depression, anxiety etc. These are serious things that are ruining people’s lives and killing people.

And Let’s not forget that the vast majority of people dying have sever comorbidities, obesity being one of the most prevalent. It’s sad that literally no mainstream voices are telling people to get healthy. If now isn’t the time to take your personal health seriously when is?

(A) Giving zero credit for natural immunity is junk science and politically motivated. (B) Saying someone doesn’t read well is low and unnecessary.

Can we not disagree without insulting one another?

If you’re ok with accepting everything you’ve been told because..”science”…then fine. We don’t have to agree but what I’m not going to let slide is junk science hiding behind political motives. Painting unvaccinated people with a broad stroke giving no consideration to those that have recovered from covid is irresponsible. For example, the band The Offspring just fired their drummer because he won’t take the vaccine. He’s already had covid AND he took years to recover from a case of guillian barre from another vaccine! Why on earth would he risk that again?

I think there are a lot of people that SHOULD get vaccinated. I think there is a smaller group that SHOULD NOT. All I’m asking for is respect and consideration for that group. It does not work for everyone and a 100% vaccine approach to ending a pandemic has plenty of flaws to it.

There are serious, well qualified doctors and scientists that have these concerns. Is it a minority view? Sure! But let’s not pretend like I’m pulling this out of thin air.

If you’re interested in productive discussion then I’ll gladly engage…if you just want to hurl personal insults then you can kindly take a hike.