Post by mrholmes on Mar 13, 2020 18:04:25 GMT -6
The global infection rate for COVID-19 is predicted between 40-70%.
Angela Merkel has stated up to 70% of Germany's population is likely to get it.
If 50% of the global population get it that is around 3.75 Billion.
If the mortality rate is say 3.5% then that's around 135 Million deaths.
The current Italian morbidity rate is around 6% mainly because of the combination of age and overwhelmed hospitals unable to provide essential care for all critical patients.
Without medical intervention expect the morbidity rate to climb to over 10%.
This will likely be the norm for poor countries with non existant or under resourced healthcare systems and even First World healthcare systems that have collapsed under sheer numbers.
Now add to that deaths of indirectly related causes (coronary, cancer, other diseases etc) which are due to overburdened hospitals and ER depts that are completely overwhelmed by COVID-19 and have no capacity left.
Add to that a breakdown in supply chains, food shortages and civil unrest, war even?
We are now looking at a potential death rates of well over 10%. - 15%? 20%? Who knows.
Even a morbidity rate of 10% equates to 375 Million based on a 50% global infection rate which to put into context is greater than the entire population of the United States.
I may sound like the Grim Reaper but this is just the math and it's no time to be complacent.
The mortality rate is always high at the beginning because the number of all infected people is too small in the beginning.
From china, we know it's in the end about 0,5%.