COVID-19 cancelations

Forgive, but please do not encourage complacency.

That 40-70% will get it eventually is probably true.

The final mortality will depend on how quickly that happens. The slower the better. It keeps the healthcare system from being overrun and gives us time to develop treatment regimes and herd immunity!

We do not want a Spanish flu type of even with 2-3% case fatality rate.

7.7 billion people times 70% and 0.5% CFR is 27 million dead. I know it can be managed less than that.

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

No, it isn’t. I’ve listened to epidemiologist after epidemiologist (calmly) lay out the detailed, data-based reasons this is a big deal.

I don’t consume sensationalist media.

Nah it’s gonna be fine.

If you look at Lombardy region they have over 850 official cases per million people. That’s what makes it dangerous, the concentrated surge on healthcare systems.

I am extremely critical of the CDC handling of the test kits. They had one job and they failed. I also think the government did a bad job in a social media age of getting the word out. “Flatten the curve” and #flattenthecurve should have been a thing since February 1. Then when it was time to implement strict isolation actions it would have been a question of “when” not “why”.

But that being said I have been very pleased with the speed that we moved once community spread was identified. We are doing well. I am cautiously optimistic that we in the US will avoid a Lombardy type situation. The only place I’m really concerned about is Washington state / Seattle.

I am very concerned for my friends and coworkers in Switzerland, Spain, and France.

Has the media overblown this some - absolutely - and I agree we need to avoid hysteria in our response.  BUt it is now a pandemic with no current effective treatment beyond supportive care which will significantly stress medical resources.  Few weeks ago I was enjoying being semi-retired and wiring up the console - now I'm back to practicing Emergency Medicine full time in the Seattle area and my return to music is once again on the back burner for a while.  Practice good personal hygiene, stay home if mildly ill and follow reputable sources like CDC for guidance as our response continues to evolve.  Be appropriately cautious if in higher risk groups ( says the over 65yo doc working the ER) - but life goes on.  To quote Hill Street Blues - "Lets be careful out there"

Some of you may have seen my posts in the other thread, but from my perspective, as a front line hospital worker the response on a macro level has been...uh...strange to say the least. I feel like the CDC has done a shit job of handling this. The creation of guidelines, both for community and medical response, the dissemination of information...all of it, has been poor. At least on my end. The guidelines we get change, day by day, sometimes hour by hour. What are we supposed to do with that? Pandemic out breaks are not new. The CDC knows (supposedly) how to handle these situations. But it feels like they're tripping over themselves trying to create solutions. Ever heard the phrase "the faster you go, the slower you get"? Because that describes the situation in many ways. It was like the common sense shit that should've been done at the beginning (rigorous screening of travelers from Asia, focused travel restrictions, psa's about public hygiene, hand washing etc) was dropped and now everyone is playing catch up, which is contributing to a certain sense of panic.

I don't follow the media much, so I'm pretty in the dark when it comes to response from this presidential administration, etc etc. But is sound as if they did a shit job too.

I've spent a lot of time on the phone with friends and relatives, trying to calm nerves. It's important to use common sense, wash your hands, practice good hygiene, avoid certain public situations and be diligent with self care and self screening. But also, don't panic, don't horde toilet paper, be reasonable. This virus won't cripple our infrastructure...stupid people on the other hand...well who knows.

I've been in a lot of emergency situations. It's part of my day job in the hospital. I've been in situations where I'm responsible for critical roles, and if I fuck up people can die. There's a certain speed and calmness you need to navigate with in that type of situation. You DO NOT rush, you don't go as fast as you CAN. You operate at a quick, deliberate pace. The danger is in going too quick, not too slow. Better to make wise, critical decisions at a slower pace than to rush (which leads to critical mistakes). That's how it works on the micro level, and that's how it how it should have been handled on the macro with the CDC etc. On the front lines it feels like their response was very haphazard.

That being said, the on-the-ground response from healthcare workers has been one of an over abundance of caution. We will continue to get better and more efficient at treating this. The challenges to the healthcare system are real, but are being sorted out.

And here's some good, anecdotal, things we're finding. The virus doesn't seem to really be effecting pediatric patients, infants, or neonates (not sure about older teenagers). I'm hoping that stays true. Also, we're not seeing cases of people infected with Both influenza AND COVID. The two viruses don't seem to cohort well together. That's a huge relief as well.

Anyway, rant over.

Slightly off topic - day off so I thought I'd relax, run signal through board - all distorted (fine 2 days ago). Had a brief power outage last night, board on surge protector turned off but not unplugged - now have multiple bus sends not working or overloading - guess I'm in for some troubleshooting after Covid 19 dies down. 😡

I certainly agree that neither side has a monopoly on lame, partisan tribalism and yes, there were some characterizations from the left that were unfair.  But that's what he was tossing out to the base at the rally, the hoax idea.  I listened to it unedited.  You could make a case that he's kind of connecting the criticism of his administration's handling of it as the 'hoax' more than the outbreak itself but it's left strategically vague.  And for my part, when someone is in the middle of actively mischaracterizing (the charitable word for it) numbers and various other other aspects of something, it's pretty hard to give them the benefit of the doubt when they try to ride the line on inflammatory accusations. Whichever way you choose to interpret it though, it's the same play out of the same playbook as always, ie, this makes me look bad therefore it's a hoax.     

It's neither here nor there for the most part.  It's not the cause of any of this, just something that makes it needlessly worse.  An outbreak like this doesn't care about demagogic bullshittery regardless of what side it's coming from.  If I had my way, I'd have leadership mostly keep their mouths shut other than to say 'listen to the proven experts and do what they recommend'.  

He may be confusing the CDC with the Pandemic Response Team, which this administration disbanded in 2018.  

The CDC was slated to have an ~80% cut in global disease outbreak prevention money but that isn't directly attributable to this administration, the money was just running out.  Congress allocated more so those cuts never happened.  The Pandemic Response Team being axed did happen.  

Yup this virus is all Mitch McConnel’s fault. Should have known better than to even say anything. I am truly sorry I did, I won’t be talking about it any more.