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Post by Ward on Mar 12, 2020 11:33:55 GMT -6
Thus far:
NBA - remainder of season
NHL - cancelation looks imminent
NAB - canceled. Just got the email
AIR - all air travel between US and EU canceled. So that's a monkey wrench in a lot of people's work
WARD'S TRIP TO NASHVILLE THIS WEEK . . . traveling companion canceled it
Anything else?
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Post by svart on Mar 12, 2020 11:42:41 GMT -6
MLS
MLB too.
Most college playoffs.
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Post by EmRR on Mar 12, 2020 11:50:12 GMT -6
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Post by geoff738 on Mar 12, 2020 13:21:16 GMT -6
Juno awards up here in Canada.
But I think we can anticipate anything where the gathering is above a few hundred people is going to be cancelled or postponed. Parades, conventions etc.
Wondering what will happen at sub 500 people venues. Will they be shut down or artists touring at that level be cancelling? Will travel restrictions make that happen even if the artists are not cancelling directly?
I just have the feeling we’re not at the end of the beginning of this yet. Hopefully I m wrong.
Cheers,
Geoff
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Post by EmRR on Mar 12, 2020 13:33:43 GMT -6
Juno awards up here in Canada. But I think we can anticipate anything where the gathering is above a few hundred people is going to be cancelled or postponed. Parades, conventions etc. Wondering what will happen at sub 500 people venues. Will they be shut down or artists touring at that level be cancelling? Will travel restrictions make that happen even if the artists are not cancelling directly? I just have the feeling we’re not at the end of the beginning of this yet. Hopefully I m wrong. Cheers, Geoff Several clients touring in the 100-300 capacity range are seeing tours canceled. |
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Post by geoff738 on Mar 12, 2020 13:49:16 GMT -6
When is the Stones tour set to start? I wonder how long until it gets postponed?
Cheers,
Geoff
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Post by geoff738 on Mar 12, 2020 13:50:44 GMT -6
Juno awards up here in Canada. But I think we can anticipate anything where the gathering is above a few hundred people is going to be cancelled or postponed. Parades, conventions etc. Wondering what will happen at sub 500 people venues. Will they be shut down or artists touring at that level be cancelling? Will travel restrictions make that happen even if the artists are not cancelling directly? I just have the feeling we’re not at the end of the beginning of this yet. Hopefully I m wrong. Cheers, Geoff Several clients touring in the 100-300 capacity range are seeing tours canceled. I feel for those acts. Touring is how they’re able to survive. And for the venues and their staff. This is going to be tough on them too. Cheers, Geoff |
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Post by svart on Mar 12, 2020 14:12:36 GMT -6
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Post by geoff738 on Mar 12, 2020 14:19:05 GMT -6
Not music related but they just shut down the schools here until early April. I have a teenager I need to find things to do. Other than video games. Ugh.
Cheers,
Geoff
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Post by rowmat on Mar 12, 2020 14:41:25 GMT -6
Melbourne Grand Prix has been cancelled for this weekend. All the teams are already here except McLaren which had cancelled because a team member was infected.
UPDATE: Melbourne Grand Prix is now going ahead but without spectators. It will be televised only.
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Post by EmRR on Mar 12, 2020 14:56:00 GMT -6
Not music related but they just shut down the schools here until early April. I have a teenager I need to find things to do. Other than video games. Ugh. Cheers, Geoff Yeah, I expect a flood of K-12 school closings in coming days, that's gonna be a huge burden with no good path for many (most?) parents in the US. |
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Post by Tbone81 on Mar 12, 2020 15:01:28 GMT -6
Not music related but they just shut down the schools here until early April. I have a teenager I need to find things to do. Other than video games. Ugh. Cheers, Geoff What area are you in? I'm fearing the same thing here in Oregon. The last thing I need is for my teenager to sit home all day alone pretending to do school work. |
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Post by rowmat on Mar 12, 2020 15:14:56 GMT -6
Get used to cancellations. Cancellations are about to become the new norm.
The issue is that 10% - 15% of those who become infected require ICU hospitalization for two to three weeks.
Around 5% will require mechanical ventilation.
The relatively mild symptoms many have is actually something to be extremely concerned about. Those with little or no symptoms are very efficient at silently spreading the virus around infecting those who are far more vulnerable to becoming extremely ill.
Few understand the exponential function. Expect to see massive spikes in infection rates in the US, Canada, UK, Australia etc over the next 7 - 14 days. And even those figures will be understated because of the lack of testing.
The other issue is permanent lung damage which is becoming apparent in survivors who had extreme pneumonia. This is NOT just another 'Flu'.
The only option is to avoid gatherings, enclosed spaces and maintain safe distances from others. So yes, school closures are going to happen everywhere across the globe and possibly for months rather than weeks especially in countries now heading into the 'normal' winter flu season.
If drastic and immediate measures are not taken the infection rate will rapidly overwhelm the hospital system and the death toll will likely exceed 10% which is where Northern Italy is heading now.
Italy does have 1st world medical care contrary to some reports. I lived and worked in the Lombardy region of Italy for 16 weeks in the late 1990's where the current crisis is playing out.
Patients in their 40's are also now appearing with severe symptoms.
Due to hospitals and staff being overwhelmed (many staff are also becoming infected) the system is on the verge of collapse. Because of insufficient numbers of mechanical ventilators required to treat the rapidly skyrocketing influx of patients with extreme bilateral pneumonia, patients over 60 are not being treated and are being left to die.
It's not a case of stopping it, most will eventually become infected with COVID-19 as part of the seasonal flu cycle. The issue is to do everything possible to slow the current rate of infection sufficiently to prevent the health system collapsing and also 'maybe' allow enough time to develop a vaccine which is still likely a year or more away.
Complacency is not an option unless you want to repeat what is currently playing out in Northern Italy in your own neck of the woods.
See attached graph.
Attachments:
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Post by geoff738 on Mar 12, 2020 15:29:46 GMT -6
Not music related but they just shut down the schools here until early April. I have a teenager I need to find things to do. Other than video games. Ugh. Cheers, Geoff What area are you in? I'm fearing the same thing here in Oregon. The last thing I need is for my teenager to sit home all day alone pretending to do school work. Toronto. We have relatively few confirmed cases, and no deaths so far. And yet they’re still taking this step. Mind you we were among the hardest hit areas with SARS, so being perhaps overly cautious isn’t a bad thing. Plus my kid takes public transit to school, in an area with some homeless and folks with mental health issues who may not have the wherewithal to take appropriate sanitation steps or self isolate. So avoiding that is good. Cheers, Geoff |
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Post by geoff738 on Mar 12, 2020 15:32:16 GMT -6
That graph of Italy is kinda terrifying. If that can happen in a country with a robust health system, imagine the possibilities in relatively poor countries.
Cheers,
Geoff
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Post by rowmat on Mar 12, 2020 15:39:57 GMT -6
That graph of Italy is kinda terrifying. If that can happen in a country with a robust health system, imagine the possibilities in relatively poor countries. Cheers, Geoff If you look at 2/23/2020 the graph appears to be flatlining. 14 days later it's heading off scale. This is why people don't understand the ramifications of exponential growth until it's too late. The only option is for people to self isolate in order to slow the infection rate enough so the entire health system doesn't collapse and is able treat those who would die without ICU hospitalization and mechanical ventilation.
Poor countries (especially those with closely populated slums) will most likely be decimated but with little publicized stats due to little or no testing.
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Post by geoff738 on Mar 12, 2020 17:33:34 GMT -6
That graph of Italy is kinda terrifying. If that can happen in a country with a robust health system, imagine the possibilities in relatively poor countries. Cheers, Geoff If you look at 2/23/2020 the graph appears to be flatlining. 14 days later it's heading off scale. This is why people don't understand the ramifications of exponential growth until it's too late. The only option is for people to self isolate in order to slow the infection rate enough so the entire health system doesn't collapse and is able treat those who would die without ICU hospitalization and mechanical ventilation.
Poor countries (especially those with closely populated slums) will most likely be decimated but with little publicized stats due to little or no testing.
That’s my fear, that this takes hold in a poorer country with a less robust health system. Although given that it is mostly contained to the elderly and those with compromised immune systems it may be a generation that is lost, and beyond the immediate death toll the societal impacts of that are incalculable and will last many years if not decades. If this comes to pass it will be incredibly destabilizing. Heres hoping this turns a corner soon. Cheers, Geoff |
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Post by bowie on Mar 12, 2020 17:38:23 GMT -6
Was in physical therapy today and heard calls coming in of people canceling over COV concerns, saying they'd resume when things settle down. This isn't at a hospital, just an office that never has more than 10 people in it. There are 9 cases in my state, meaning these folks canceling would rather live in disabling pain and forego treatment rather than risk exposure to something 9 of 7,000,000 local people have. Seems insane to me but everyone's got to make their own priorities. For me, the therapy is far more important than the fraction of a percent of risk.
I do understand I'm relatively lucky that it's low risk where I live. They moved the presidential debates out of Phoenix this year, which I'm glad for because the extra incoming travel certainly wouldn't be a good thing as far as the virus goes.
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Post by ragan on Mar 12, 2020 18:08:55 GMT -6
I'm in Seattle and as of this afternoon there are 270 cases and 29 deaths, though of course there are undoubtedly many, many more total cases than that, testing just isn't readily available. My wife and I are extremely lucky that we can both do what we do remotely (she teaches at the university I'm enrolled in). All classes have moved to online only. It's honestly pretty workable for us. Zoom lectures let us all participate in more or less the same way we do in person. I actually love the fact that I can go back and watch again and pause/repeat difficult material. My son is in kindergarten and his school is cancelled for at least 6 weeks. We can easily handle that (my little girl is 2 so someone is always here with her anyways). My mom is here a couple days a week to help with the kids. We're extremely lucky to be in the position to take this in stride. For others this is going to be a huge challenge. Coming up with extended, improvised childcare on the spot is not something most people can do. Not every job can be done remotely and there is gonna be some bad economic fallout (I mean besides the imploded stock market). But I'm a science-minded dude. If I wanna know about carbon fiber wings I'll ask my buddy the material science engineer. If I wanna know about the spread of infectious disease I'll ask an epidemiologist. Seems like this is something that has to be taken seriously even if you yourself aren't at a great deal of risk. I've taken enough math and statistical analysis to understand that there are points beyond which a given function is going to spin out of control and sitting back and hoping you don't hit one of those points seems like a pretty bad strategy.
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Post by rowmat on Mar 12, 2020 18:31:19 GMT -6
The economic fallout will be huge. For example schools, kindergartens and childcare centers close requiring one working parent to cease work and stay at home with the kids. The second parent is stood down from work either due to virus lockdown, ie maybe someone at work got infected or supply chain shortages and lack of inventory causing the business to lay off staff. Even assuming one or both parents have sick and/or vacation leave how long could they last on that? Two weeks? A month? How about three months? What about six months? Supposing the couple have a $250,000 mortgage, a car loan, credit card debt etc. After they have used up their sick leave and/or vacation what then? Who's going to pay the bank, finance company, credit card company? What about utilities, property tax, FOOD, medication, clothes etc? You can see where this is going cant you. Will the banks offer a moratorium on mortgage repayments for six months? Maybe. But what about those who are already mortgaged to the hilt? Then there's the renters. Who will pay their rent for six months if they have no work? After this I can see the banks foreclosing on people's homes like they did post the 2008 GFC. And this doesn't even take into account crashing real estate prices. Will the banks also implement withdrawal limits? What about 'bail ins'? (confiscation of depositer's accounts)
Also many businesses will close and never reopen after this.
Families in lock-down, bored screaming children, debt stress, uncertainty about the future, possibly hungry and sick. It's potentially a time bomb situation for neighborhood conflict.
It ain't going to be pretty.
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Post by geoff738 on Mar 12, 2020 19:12:56 GMT -6
And how is food going to get from producers to the public? Factories, farmers, grocery stores, warehouses. What happens if one of the employees tests positive at any stage of the food chain? Just one. That’s scary to me. But supply chains of just about everything are possibly impacted. The impacts will trickle down to just about everything.
And this isn’t even particularly virulent. I am not downplaying it’s significance. It’s serious, and deadly to certain segments of the population. But it’s not deadly in the way the plague was. But if we can’t handle this, how are we going to handle something more virulent down the road? That scares me more in some ways than the current situation does. I’m trying not to be alarmist. SARS killed over 40 people here. And the economic situation was bad. Our tourist economy basically collapsed. Restaurants were hard hit, hotels etc. And this has now killed more people just in Italy than SARS did worldwide.
So taking some comfort that this has largely been contained here for now. But realizing too that things are evolving rapidly. Not sure we’ve done enough, soon enough.
Geoff
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Post by rowmat on Mar 12, 2020 19:56:34 GMT -6
The global infection rate for COVID-19 is predicted between 40-70%. Angela Merkel has stated up to 70% of Germany's population is likely to get it.
If 50% of the global population get it that is around 3.75 Billion. If the mortality rate is say 3.5% then that's around 135 Million deaths.
The current Italian morbidity rate is around 6% mainly because of the combination of age and overwhelmed hospitals unable to provide essential care for all critical patients.
Without medical intervention expect the morbidity rate to climb to over 10%.
This will likely be the norm for poor countries with non existant or under resourced healthcare systems and even First World healthcare systems that have collapsed under sheer numbers.
Now add to that deaths of indirectly related causes (coronary, cancer, other diseases etc) which are due to overburdened hospitals and ER depts that are completely overwhelmed by COVID-19 and have no capacity left.
Add to that a breakdown in supply chains, food shortages and civil unrest, war even? We are now looking at a potential death rates of well over 10%. - 15%? 20%? Who knows. Even a morbidity rate of 10% equates to 375 Million based on a 50% global infection rate which to put into context is greater than the entire population of the United States.
I may sound like the Grim Reaper but this is just the math and it's no time to be complacent.
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Post by EmRR on Mar 13, 2020 7:09:29 GMT -6
A key takeaway is that we all want to slow progress so there's a chance of flattening the curve, allowing more people to get treatment. Ideally, we want to get sick AFTER the main wave once it's slowed down. We don't know if this is going to be a 'new norm' illness or if it will fade away.
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Post by matt@IAA on Mar 13, 2020 17:26:03 GMT -6
My other job besides IAA involves preparing geopolitical reports. I first included this in a report to our management around Jan 20. I only mention this because I have been following it very closely for a while now.
I think the actual, typical fatality rate will likely be well south of 1% when it is all said and done. The reason is that there are likely a non negligible amount of asymptomatic carriers. For flu that is anywhere between 10-50% of total infections!
The other thing is that you’re going to observe the more severe end an outbreak. Again comparing to influenza only ~50% of people seek medical attention. Even if this is more severe, there’s still a significant portion of people who aren’t going to be measured or tested.
So feel better about that! Unless you are over 60 even if you get this you have a 99%+ chance of being just fine after a rough couple of days plus 2 weeks of recovery. And even if you’re 70+ it’s better than 90%.
What to NOT feel good about. In Wuhan those numbers were very different. 3%+ mortality. Outside of Hubei province it was ~0.5%. The difference is the breakdown of the healthcare system. Northern Italy is probably going to be more like Hubei, sadly.
Something to consider. The incubation period is ~4 days so even if you are testing perfectly everyone you’re still behind the curve by 4 days. With exponential growth this is nuts. A ballpark would be every confirmed cases reflects 8 more already out there. Each observed / confirmed death probably represents 1000+ cases for the same reasons.
So FLATTEN THE CURVE. wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. If you’re sick stay away from people. Keep 6’ spacing whenever possible. It is all gonna be ok.
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Post by mrholmes on Mar 13, 2020 17:59:02 GMT -6
My father is an MD 30+ years experience. It is a sad thing that journalists reproduce incorrect quotes from research. In the end, someone is not entirely off - WRONG NEWS and sometimes FAKE NEWS. I don't understand the hysteria. Like any new virus this will last for about 5 years till 70% have been influenced. And like with any other influenza most people will not die. I like numbers.... gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6To me its more a problem of modern media than anything else. It's time to calm down the voices. It's time to ask people who know research in and out. |
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