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Post by 79sg on Aug 17, 2016 10:13:23 GMT -6
That is somewhat correct but that is making the assumption that these "high earners" will have stable and long term employment.
Cisco Systems just laid off 20% of its global workforce today so....................
Anyhow, thanks for playing along. I'm sure I'm wrong on this one.
Full disclosure: I rent and gladly so.
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Post by ragan on Aug 17, 2016 10:26:56 GMT -6
That is somewhat correct but that is making the assumption that these "high earners" will have stable and long term employment. Cisco Systems just laid off 20% of its global workforce today so.................... Anyhow, thanks for playing along. I'm sure I'm wrong on this one. Full disclosure: I rent and gladly so. heheh. I'm not sure you're wrong at all! Just pointing out a few things on the other side of the coin. Rates obviously do play a role in all these corporations around here's hiring/firing habits. I think Seattle's just a little unique, for the aforementioned reasons. Except for the collapsing of the fake housing market of 2007/2008/2009, we didn't actually get hit very hard by the recession. The market was flooded with foreclosures and short sales, yes. But employment and general spending was relatively sturdy around here. People snatched up the cheap properties (myself included) and the market corrected, more or less. Took a few years of course. And if you bought at the top (I have friends who did) it was indeed devastating. Lots of mortgages underwater for a few years. People had to sit tight if they could, or short sell if they couldn't. I have friends who exercised both of those options. But broadly, the economy handled the shakeup well here. Very different from the situation in the rust belt, the south, etc. |
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Post by johneppstein on Aug 17, 2016 11:55:06 GMT -6
Full disclosure: I rent and gladly so. Well, that works fine unless your landlord suddenly slaps you with a triple rent increase. This has pretty much torn apart everything I've been woreking on building for the last 9 or 10 years. My life is a wreck right now. |
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Post by Bob Olhsson on Aug 17, 2016 12:34:02 GMT -6
Seattle has high paying local jobs. Nashville doesn't.
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Post by drbill on Aug 17, 2016 12:52:47 GMT -6
Re: Seattle, the Bay Area, LA or ? ? ? Bubble Correction :
Believe it. Or eventually suffer the catestrophic consequences. I'm watching it start in LA - and that area has been fueled by Chinese inflows of HUGE amounts cash for green cards and residency - and the softening is still happening.....waiting to hear a pop.
There's a couple great docs on Netflix that are pointed exactly in this direction. One is "Boom Bust Boom" The fact is, we're bubbled, and there are a LOT of factors that play into it. One of the most fascinating things is that as long as the bubble continues to grow, it actually kind of creates it's own economy and it makes the bubble continue to grow even bigger and bigger and bigger....until..... But it's built on a facade, and that can't last forever. How many double 6 figure incomes are out there, and how solid will their jobs be when the economy falls apart, or we get a new administration, or ? - which as 79sg pointed out always happens. Always. Hold on. :-)
BTW, I'm NOT renting, own my home outright. Paid for primarily with Chinese money that purchased my LA home for stupid money (at least stupid from a US middle income perspective). My new home has gone up 20% in two years cause I bought it in a depressed real estate economy. My old LA home was most certainly in a bubble 2.5 years ago when I sold it and has remained stagnant. Not even up 0.5 %.
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Post by 79sg on Aug 17, 2016 13:35:07 GMT -6
yes, 79sg is renting (that's me  ). I am fortunate in that I can buy a home and not have a mortgage today if I were to choose to do so. It's simply that there are times when one must pick their poison so to speak. I can spend some money on rent which leaves me freedom to stay or go as well as being patient and waiting for the moment when you hear that popping sound (which we will). I participate on this board as I've been a musician and recording music since I was 9 years old (a long time ago now). I play, write and record every day but could never figure out a way to support my family (not complaining). Played in lots of bands over the years. Have a nice studio with great equipment which is primarily for my son now that he is 21 and attempting to make his way in the industry (fingers crossed). I have been a money manager for 25 years and soon to be a co-manager in a new hedge fund. This is not and should not be construed as solicitation, it is not. I am just sharing my experience and possible knowledge on a subject that is far away from music. Believe me it is also quite boring compared to music as well. Actually, most things are. Now that you know a bit of my background anytime I post about gear and such you'll know that you shouldn't listen to my opinions about that either! All in good fun. As Frank Zappa said: “Information is not knowledge. Knowledge is not wisdom. Wisdom is not truth. Truth is not beauty. Beauty is not love. Love is not music. Music is THE BEST.” ― Frank Zappa |
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Post by jcoutu1 on Aug 17, 2016 13:44:41 GMT -6
yes, 79sg is renting (that's me ). I am fortunate in that I can buy a home and not have a mortgage today if I were to choose to do so. It's simply that there are times when one must pick their poison so to speak. I can spend some money on rent which leaves me freedom to stay or go as well as being patient and waiting for the moment when you hear that popping sound (which we will). I participate on this board as I've been a musician and recording music since I was 9 years old (a long time ago now). I play, write and record every day but could never figure out a way to support my family (not complaining). Played in lots of bands over the years. Have a nice studio with great equipment which is primarily for my son now that he is 21 and attempting to make his way in the industry (fingers crossed). I have been a money manager for 25 years and soon to be a co-manager in a new hedge fund. This is not and should not be construed as solicitation, it is not. I am just sharing my experience and possible knowledge on a subject that is far away from music. Believe me it is also quite boring compared to music as well. Actually, most things are. Now that you know a bit of my background anytime I post about gear and such you'll know that you shouldn't listen to my opinions about that either! All in good fun. As Frank Zappa said: “Information is not knowledge. Knowledge is not wisdom. Wisdom is not truth. Truth is not beauty. Beauty is not love. Love is not music. Music is THE BEST.” ― Frank Zappa ...how do I get into managing hedge funds? |
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Post by 79sg on Aug 17, 2016 13:53:13 GMT -6
My advice is don't. Seriously. It is beyond highly stressful. At least with music, once the project is done and paid for. It is done and paid for. Next (hopefully, I get it). In my primary occupation it never ends, 24/7 unless I fire the client or they fire me or one of us dies. So far I am still here Like the music industry (and the vast majority quite frankly), my industry has changed a lot. Nothing like when I got started. |
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Post by ragan on Aug 17, 2016 14:02:27 GMT -6
For the record, I'm not leveraging everything I've got into real estate speculation. I don't borrow against my own house or use that equity to invest. No way. Way too risky.
I buy one house at a time and remodel it by myself. Usually takes 6 months to a year and then I sell it. Appreciation is a great bonus but most of the value I add is just labor and taste. My wife and her mother (a longtime interior designer) have excellent eyes for trends/styles and I can build things. Run the comps, figure out who your buyer is likely to be and decide how much it makes sense to spend.
Mostly I'm just getting paid for my labor. Appreciation is the gravy for my business model, not the meat.
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Post by drbill on Aug 17, 2016 14:17:42 GMT -6
For the record, I'm not leveraging everything I've got into real estate speculation. I don't borrow against my own house or use that equity to invest. No way. Way too risky. I buy one house at a time and remodel it by myself. Usually takes 6 months to a year and then I sell it. Appreciation is a great bonus but most of the value I add is just labor and taste. My wife and her mother (a longtime interior designer) have excellent eyes for trends/styles and I can build things. Run the comps, figure out who your buyer is likely to be and decide how much it makes sense to spend. Mostly I'm just getting paid for my labor. Appreciation is the gravy for my business model, not the meat. That works if the bubble continues. If not, you can loose your shirt. I know several guys in So Cal (contractors who could do the work themselves) who were doing the same thing who ate it big. Best of luck to you. Even if the market is stagnant, you can make good to great money if you choose the right properties, but if the market shifts even 10%.....watch out. |
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Post by 79sg on Aug 17, 2016 14:38:43 GMT -6
Last comment on this, I promise. The risk isn't the one you can calculate, it's the one you can't. The risk ( or perceived reduced risk) here isn't that you flip one property at a time, it's probably the ones around you that are carrying 5-8+ properties and there's lots of them out there, everywhere. They will slash prices and try to unload the minute the property is not profitable or they cannot command enough rent to cover expenses. Now if you are paying cash for the property that helps reduce risk a bit (lower carrying costs) but if you are leveraged on that property, that's a totally different story. The problem with liquidity is it doesn't slowly decline / go away it simply vanishes, fact.
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Post by ragan on Aug 17, 2016 14:43:48 GMT -6
For the record, I'm not leveraging everything I've got into real estate speculation. I don't borrow against my own house or use that equity to invest. No way. Way too risky. I buy one house at a time and remodel it by myself. Usually takes 6 months to a year and then I sell it. Appreciation is a great bonus but most of the value I add is just labor and taste. My wife and her mother (a longtime interior designer) have excellent eyes for trends/styles and I can build things. Run the comps, figure out who your buyer is likely to be and decide how much it makes sense to spend. Mostly I'm just getting paid for my labor. Appreciation is the gravy for my business model, not the meat. That works if the bubble continues. If not, you can loose your shirt. I know several guys in So Cal (contractors who could do the work themselves) who were doing the same thing who ate it big. Best of luck to you. Even if the market is stagnant, you can make good to great money if you choose the right properties, but if the market shifts even 10%.....watch out. Yeah, if you over-extend yourself you can get hosed easily. I don't know how long I'll do it, but I'm pretty cautious. Again, I'd never rely on appreciation to make profit. It's the design/remodeling itself that increases the home's worth. Not guaranteed of course but much more predictable and still viable even in a non-frothy market. If something went sideways while I was working on a house, I'd be much more likely to hang onto it and rent it out for some years than to try and sell it in a crappy market. |
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Post by ragan on Aug 17, 2016 14:48:41 GMT -6
Last comment on this, I promise. The risk isn't the one you can calculate, it's the one you can't. The risk ( or perceived reduced risk) here isn't that you flip one property at a time, it's probably the ones around you that are carrying 5-8+ properties and there's lots of them out there, everywhere. They will slash prices and try to unload the minute the property is not profitable or they cannot command enough rent to cover expenses. Now if you are paying cash for the property that helps reduce risk a bit (lower carrying costs) but if you are leveraged on that property, that's a totally different story. The problem with liquidity is it doesn't slowly decline / go away it simply vanishes, fact. You're right. There would have to be a huge/fast shift in demographic trends here to alter the market that dramatically. There's just not enough inventory to meet the demand right now. Hasn't been for several years. And these prices have flushed a lot of people out of the bushes to sell too. Just too much growth here. Who knows though. Huge shifts DO happen. Look at 2008. I GOTTA GET BACK TO WORK AND GET THIS PLACE LISTED! |
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Post by ragan on Aug 17, 2016 15:23:57 GMT -6
Last comment from me on this:
I'm in a position where this makes sense. My wife has a PhD and a career/paycheck. We (through luck) bought well on our first house and have accumulated equity more than we could have hoped. We also have a 2 year old and this line of work gives me flexibility of scheduling and between my flexibility and her non-9-to-5 professor schedule we can get by with very little extra childcare. For the moment, it's working.
Johneppstein, I hope this conversational tangent wasn't super annoying. Sorry the rug got pulled out from under you and I hope you find a workable arrangement, Nashville or elsewhere.
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Post by johneppstein on Aug 17, 2016 21:50:25 GMT -6
Last comment from me on this: I'm in a position where this makes sense. My wife has a PhD and a career/paycheck. We (through luck) bought well on our first house and have accumulated equity more than we could have hoped. We also have a 2 year old and this line of work gives me flexibility of scheduling and between my flexibility and her non-9-to-5 professor schedule we can get by with very little extra childcare. For the moment, it's working. Johneppstein, I hope this conversational tangent wasn't super annoying. Sorry the rug got pulled out from under you and I hope you find a workable arrangement, Nashville or elsewhere. No problem, it was interesting. Now if anybody has any additional help or advise I'd appreciate it. |
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Post by johneppstein on Aug 18, 2016 22:50:23 GMT -6
I have a couple more questions, relating to objections my music partner has to relocating -
First, what's the weather like in the winter? He's complaining about snow.
Second, he has medical issues (he was having small heart attacks a year or so back and had a stent installed in one of his cardiac arteries and has been on medication since. His medication paid for by a San Francisco city program, as he has no money.) Is there any sort of program in Nashville that would cover his prescriptions and provide a modest stipend for basic living expenses?
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Post by Bob Olhsson on Aug 19, 2016 17:03:45 GMT -6
I've only seen a few days of snow. It is hot as hell in the summer.
Tennessee refused to accept Medicaid expansion while SF has the most generous public health program in the country. There is a low cost program at Vanderbilt University sort of like Kaiser only with no benefits elsewhere. A friend of mine set it up to help recording engineers. Ellen an I both went on Medicare before he got it going.
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Post by rob61 on Aug 20, 2016 9:11:22 GMT -6
Re: Seattle, the Bay Area, LA or ? ? ? Bubble Correction : Believe it. Or eventually suffer the catestrophic consequences. I'm watching it start in LA - and that area has been fueled by Chinese inflows of HUGE amounts cash for green cards and residency - and the softening is still happening.....waiting to hear a pop. There's a couple great docs on Netflix that are pointed exactly in this direction. One is "Boom Bust Boom" The fact is, we're bubbled, and there are a LOT of factors that play into it. One of the most fascinating things is that as long as the bubble continues to grow, it actually kind of creates it's own economy and it makes the bubble continue to grow even bigger and bigger and bigger....until..... But it's built on a facade, and that can't last forever. How many double 6 figure incomes are out there, and how solid will their jobs be when the economy falls apart, or we get a new administration, or ? - which as 79sg pointed out always happens. Always. Hold on. :-) BTW, I'm NOT renting, own my home outright. Paid for primarily with Chinese money that purchased my LA home for stupid money (at least stupid from a US middle income perspective). My new home has gone up 20% in two years cause I bought it in a depressed real estate economy. My old LA home was most certainly in a bubble 2.5 years ago when I sold it and has remained stagnant. Not even up 0.5 %. Impeccable timing... you must be a musician |
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Post by johneppstein on Aug 20, 2016 10:11:28 GMT -6
I've only seen a few days of snow. It is hot as hell in the summer. Tennessee refused to accept Medicaid expansion while SF has the most generous public health program in the country. There is a low cost program at Vanderbilt University sort of like Kaiser only with no benefits elsewhere. A friend of mine set it up to help recording engineers. Ellen an I both went on Medicare before he got it going. How low cost is "low cost" Bob (my music partner) has zero money. Also, is there Kaiser there (I'm on Kaiser via Medicare.) |
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Post by Bob Olhsson on Aug 20, 2016 10:51:09 GMT -6
No Kaiser here but Vanderbilt is superb. Low cost probably isn't that low with no Medicaid expansion. I'll see if I can find out more details.
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Post by johneppstein on Aug 23, 2016 13:48:15 GMT -6
I don't know what the prices are now, but when I moved to Nashville and bought a house (2006) I lived in East Nashville. Call Cindy Evans. She'll give you a good idea of the prices. She's back in town but she's really hard to get ahold of. I called the office a couple times yesterday but she did not return my call. I just tried today and got the automated system. Tried her cell, got voicemail. |
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Post by swurveman on Aug 23, 2016 14:15:19 GMT -6
I don't know what the prices are now, but when I moved to Nashville and bought a house (2006) I lived in East Nashville. Call Cindy Evans. She'll give you a good idea of the prices. She's back in town but she's really hard to get ahold of. I called the office a couple times yesterday but she did not return my call. I just tried today and got the automated system. Tried her cell, got voicemail. Sorry. When she was my realtor she was very punctual, but that was seven years ago. I hope she can help you. |
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Post by johneppstein on Aug 23, 2016 14:25:44 GMT -6
She's back in town but she's really hard to get ahold of. I called the office a couple times yesterday but she did not return my call. I just tried today and got the automated system. Tried her cell, got voicemail. Sorry. When she was my realtor she was very punctual, but that was seven years ago. I hope she can help you. She just now called me. She appears to be quite busy. Thanks! |
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Post by johneppstein on Sept 1, 2016 14:03:39 GMT -6
Well, I'm flying in Sunday n ight to look around for 3 days. Flying back out Thursday. Should be interesting...
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Post by keymod on Sept 1, 2016 15:06:47 GMT -6
Good luck with your search
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). I am fortunate in that I can buy a home and not have a mortgage today if I were to choose to do so. It's simply that there are times when one must pick their poison so to speak. I can spend some money on rent which leaves me freedom to stay or go as well as being patient and waiting for the moment when you hear that popping sound (which we will). I participate on this board as I've been a musician and recording music since I was 9 years old (a long time ago now). I play, write and record every day but could never figure out a way to support my family (not complaining). Played in lots of bands over the years. Have a nice studio with great equipment which is primarily for my son now that he is 21 and attempting to make his way in the industry (fingers crossed). I have been a money manager for 25 years and soon to be a co-manager in a new hedge fund. This is not and should not be construed as solicitation, it is not. I am just sharing my experience and possible knowledge on a subject that is far away from music. Believe me it is also quite boring compared to music as well. Actually, most things are. Now that you know a bit of my background anytime I post about gear and such you'll know that you shouldn't listen to my opinions about that either! 
