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Post by johneppstein on Aug 15, 2016 13:00:52 GMT -6
My living situation has become untenable due to rampant inflation of rental rates. My old landlord died and his heirs have discovered that my place in not covered under rent control and have tripled the rent from$2000/month to $6000. I need to move.
I was thinking about relocating to the Nashville area. I understand that "gentrification" has set in there as well, but I can't imagine that it could be as bad as SF. (And SF has to be one of the worst places in the US for country music...)
What I'd really like to do is find a house where I could live and set up my modest (tape based) studio for about $100,000 cash. It needn't be anything fancy, not remodeled or anything like that. Is this doable? Or have markets passed that by? What are properties going for out there?
Conversely, what are rentals going for for, say, a 3 bedroom house with a decent sized living room? I've been looking around here in the $2000 -$3000 range and finding listings but the competition is so intense even quite a few miles out of town that I haven't been able to find anything that isn't gone almost as soon as it's listed.
I need room for myself, my music partner, a modest live room big enought for a 5 or 6 piece band, and a control room big enough to accommodate a Studer 24 track, an MCI 2 track, 32 channel console, and about 3 racks of gear.
Can anyone help, offer suggestions, guidance, anything?
Thanks!
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Post by NoFilterChuck on Aug 15, 2016 13:22:46 GMT -6
when you say "here", do you mean Nashville? or your current location of _____?
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Post by johneppstein on Aug 15, 2016 13:52:26 GMT -6
when you say "here", do you mean Nashville? or your current location of _____? In the phrase " I've been looking around here in the $2000 -$3000 range" by "here" I mean San Francisco Bay Area. (Thjere's nothing in the city proper in that range that's adequate.) |
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Post by NoFilterChuck on Aug 15, 2016 14:02:39 GMT -6
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Post by NoFilterChuck on Aug 15, 2016 14:08:34 GMT -6
Sacremento isn't very far from San Francisco, and it's way cheaper. You might get lucky making a short move vs. a trek across the country.
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Post by johneppstein on Aug 15, 2016 14:11:13 GMT -6
I sure do! Oh BOY do I know that! It's utterly insane. That's why I figure that even though everybody's complaining about prices going up out there (Nashville) it's GOTTA be better than here! And a lot friendlier to the music I do, too! |
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Post by NoFilterChuck on Aug 15, 2016 14:13:06 GMT -6
Yeah, those prices are powered by all of the tech companies that are based out of there. it's insane really. i'm here in NYC, so i'm in the same boat. San Fran is #1, NYC is #2 in that list. But the music scene here is pretty amazing regardless of style. Good luck on your hunt!
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Post by johneppstein on Aug 15, 2016 14:14:41 GMT -6
Sacremento isn't very far from San Francisco, and it's way cheaper. You might get lucky making a short move vs. a trek across the country. Yeah, I know. My roadie's moving to Sac. But it's kind of a drag out there and it's really hot in the summer. If I'm gonna be some place hot it should at least be interesting. |
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Post by swurveman on Aug 15, 2016 14:44:49 GMT -6
I don't know what the prices are now, but when I moved to Nashville and bought a house (2006) I lived in East Nashville. Call Cindy Evans. She'll give you a good idea of the prices. |
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Post by johneppstein on Aug 15, 2016 15:01:53 GMT -6
I don't know what the prices are now, but when I moved to Nashville and bought a house (2006) I lived in East Nashville. Call Cindy Evans. She'll give you a good idea of the prices. Thanks. She's out for a few days but I'll shoot her an email. |
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Post by Johnkenn on Aug 15, 2016 15:17:09 GMT -6
Yeah, you could do waaaayyy better than that here in Nashville. $3000 a month would rent a 4500 sqft house here. Were you saying your budget for the house is $100k?
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Post by johneppstein on Aug 15, 2016 15:53:54 GMT -6
Yeah, you could do waaaayyy better than that here in Nashville. $3000 a month would rent a 4500 sqft house here. Were you saying your budget for the house is $100k? Yes, I can probably swing that. |
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Post by NoFilterChuck on Aug 16, 2016 0:58:30 GMT -6
Yeah, you could do waaaayyy better than that here in Nashville. $3000 a month would rent a 4500 sqft house here. Serious?? I better talk to the wife, cuz she has her heart set on relocating to the pacific northwest in a couple years, ever since we visited my sisters and parents (I'm from seattle). |
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Post by johneppstein on Aug 16, 2016 2:19:42 GMT -6
Yeah, you could do waaaayyy better than that here in Nashville. $3000 a month would rent a 4500 sqft house here. Serious?? I better talk to the wife, cuz she has her heart set on relocating to the pacific northwest in a couple years, ever since we visited my sisters and parents (I'm from seattle). My advice is DO NOT COME to the Pacific Northwest. Not every place is as crazy as SF, but it's getting there REAL FAST. It's not just Silly-Con Valley and outliers. Washington State has the techhie boom around Microsoft in Redmond and Seattle is like SF to The Valley andPortland is getting pretty bad from what I hear. |
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Post by NoFilterChuck on Aug 16, 2016 2:55:58 GMT -6
I know, my bro-in-law is a lead dev on holo lens at Microsoft.. But you know the saying: happy wife, happy life.. I missed the pacnor as soon as I got off the plane in Oregon after being in NYC for a decade and smelled that pacnor air.
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Post by Johnkenn on Aug 16, 2016 9:02:28 GMT -6
Yeah - that's the reason everyone is moving here.
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Post by ragan on Aug 16, 2016 10:52:31 GMT -6
I flip houses here in Seattle. It's a tough market for a buyer.
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Post by Bob Olhsson on Aug 16, 2016 10:58:06 GMT -6
Most tech jobs have turned into people on the internet working from home. This dramatically changes the nature of real estate values. Nashville has seen a massive increase in highly paid millennials because its been a multi-college town with cheap housing. A lot of its appeal will vanish until the current real estate bubble bursts because there are few local high paying jobs. We've already got new apartments that people won't rent.
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Post by 79sg on Aug 16, 2016 13:00:45 GMT -6
It's a bubble everywhere quite frankly. Interest rates have been kept at essentially ZERO for 8 years which makes it impossible to know what anything is truly worth and creates nothing more than a house of mirrors. IF interest rates are ever allowed to normalize either through policy or the markets force such an outcome, the reset in anything tied to debt will be one for the history books and not in a good way. But what do I know?
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Post by johneppstein on Aug 16, 2016 13:27:07 GMT -6
Yeah, you could do waaaayyy better than that here in Nashville. $3000 a month would rent a 4500 sqft house here. Were you saying your budget for the house is $100k? I talked to the accountant and he says that $100K is definitely doable. |
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Post by ragan on Aug 16, 2016 14:23:07 GMT -6
It's a bubble everywhere quite frankly. Interest rates have been kept at essentially ZERO for 8 years which makes it impossible to know what anything is truly worth and creates nothing more than a house of mirrors. IF interest rates are ever allowed to normalize either through policy or the markets force such an outcome, the reset in anything tied to debt will be one for the history books and not in a good way. But what do I know? Here in Seattle, I don't believe it's a totally artificial bubble. We've been one of the fastest growing cities the last several years and the people moving here are largely high earners. We can't really sprawl like an LA or a Phoenix, there's water surrounding us and closing the city in. Craploads of people wanting to live in the city and limited supply leaves only one way for prices to go. At least for the near future. Contrast that to 2007/2008 when the market collapsed. That was because everyone and their dog could get a mortgage (since the banks were betting against all the shitty loans with credit default swaps and all kinds of mortgage backed securities shenanigans). I had friends who did interest only, stated income loans (encouraged by the lenders). It was nuts. Totally false bubble not related to real market forces. Right now it's good old supply and demand. Interest rates are low, yes, but it's still relatively hard to borrow (by historical standards). Seattle's also kinda unique because the economy is diverse. Lots of tech yes, but many other huge components like retail (Amazon, Starbucks, Nordstrom, etc) manufacturing (Boeing) as well as good old commodities (Weyerhauser). Anyway. That's all mostly a tangent. My only point is that around here the bubble feels less ready to collapse than in the past. These high prices and high demand may be with us for a good while. |
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Post by 79sg on Aug 17, 2016 7:58:07 GMT -6
It's a bubble everywhere quite frankly. Interest rates have been kept at essentially ZERO for 8 years which makes it impossible to know what anything is truly worth and creates nothing more than a house of mirrors. IF interest rates are ever allowed to normalize either through policy or the markets force such an outcome, the reset in anything tied to debt will be one for the history books and not in a good way. But what do I know? Here in Seattle, I don't believe it's a totally artificial bubble. We've been one of the fastest growing cities the last several years and the people moving here are largely high earners. We can't really sprawl like an LA or a Phoenix, there's water surrounding us and closing the city in. Craploads of people wanting to live in the city and limited supply leaves only one way for prices to go. At least for the near future. Contrast that to 2007/2008 when the market collapsed. That was because everyone and their dog could get a mortgage (since the banks were betting against all the shitty loans with credit default swaps and all kinds of mortgage backed securities shenanigans). I had friends who did interest only, stated income loans (encouraged by the lenders). It was nuts. Totally false bubble not related to real market forces. Right now it's good old supply and demand. Interest rates are low, yes, but it's still relatively hard to borrow (by historical standards). Seattle's also kinda unique because the economy is diverse. Lots of tech yes, but many other huge components like retail (Amazon, Starbucks, Nordstrom, etc) manufacturing (Boeing) as well as good old commodities (Weyerhauser). Anyway. That's all mostly a tangent. My only point is that around here the bubble feels less ready to collapse than in the past. These high prices and high demand may be with us for a good while. So may I ask if you were flipping houses in 2007-2009 or is this a newer venture? If my memory serves me correctly the current bottom in housing was in 2010. I would agree this bubble isn't like the 2008-2009 (bursting of the last bubble), it is much worse, much much worse and far more dangerous. Disclosure: I might know a thing or two about this subject. |
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Post by ragan on Aug 17, 2016 9:02:24 GMT -6
Here in Seattle, I don't believe it's a totally artificial bubble. We've been one of the fastest growing cities the last several years and the people moving here are largely high earners. We can't really sprawl like an LA or a Phoenix, there's water surrounding us and closing the city in. Craploads of people wanting to live in the city and limited supply leaves only one way for prices to go. At least for the near future. Contrast that to 2007/2008 when the market collapsed. That was because everyone and their dog could get a mortgage (since the banks were betting against all the shitty loans with credit default swaps and all kinds of mortgage backed securities shenanigans). I had friends who did interest only, stated income loans (encouraged by the lenders). It was nuts. Totally false bubble not related to real market forces. Right now it's good old supply and demand. Interest rates are low, yes, but it's still relatively hard to borrow (by historical standards). Seattle's also kinda unique because the economy is diverse. Lots of tech yes, but many other huge components like retail (Amazon, Starbucks, Nordstrom, etc) manufacturing (Boeing) as well as good old commodities (Weyerhauser). Anyway. That's all mostly a tangent. My only point is that around here the bubble feels less ready to collapse than in the past. These high prices and high demand may be with us for a good while. So may I ask if you were flipping houses in 2007-2009 or is this a newer venture? If my memory serves me correctly the current bottom in housing was in 2010. I would agree this bubble isn't like the 2008-2009 (bursting of the last bubble), it is much worse, much much worse and far more dangerous. Disclosure: I might know a thing or two about this subject. No, I wasn't. Bought my first house in March of 2011, which Zillow has listed as the exact month of "the bottom" in that neighborhood. Granted that wasn't clairvoyance or anything, mostly luck. That's great that you know a thing or two. All I was pointing out was that, here, in Seattle, the upward pressure on prices is mostly due to supply and demand, which I have more faith in than financial artifice. |
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Post by 79sg on Aug 17, 2016 9:59:30 GMT -6
Without us getting circular and this is all in good fun, the truth is that what you might be viewing as "supply and demand" is actually an illusion because it has solely been driven by free money (low interest rates) and low credit worthiness (0-3% down again thanks to taxpayers willing to backstop FNMA) that has driven the BIGGEST ASSET BUBBLE IN HISTORY (not yelling as they'd say on the internet simply emphasizing  ). This is all markets, all asset classes driven by debt, stocks, bonds, real estate and way overinflated automobile prices. It also has driven some of the ridiculous prices of gear. Anyhow, I normally would never post this on a music site (or any internet site for that matter) but I am very fond of RGO and the people that participate here. The reason I asked if you were flipping homes at the last top was out of curiosity as it reminded me of a conversation I had with a close friend recently when I asked him if he thought markets were in the euphoric mania phase which occurs at every top. It occurs because people actually begin to believe "this time is different" and history shows it never is different, that's all. His answer was that he'll know when it's time to get out, so I politely asked him...." Did you get out of markets at or near the top in 1987, 2000 or 2007/2008?" He replied no, he was devastated in every one of them and so were his clients. Hmm.... so I asked the final question "If you never saw the tops then, why on earth would you actually believe you will see the top this time or more importantly act upon it and get out of the way?" Dead silence. Conversation over. One of my sayings is this, "risk is a funny thing, you never truly know how much you were taking until after the fact" Sorry for going on and on about this and jumping into a topic that was primarily about whether or not to move to Nashville. Maybe I am wrong this time, maybe it is different. However, I don't argue with history nor mathematical certainties. |
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Post by ragan on Aug 17, 2016 10:10:31 GMT -6
Without us getting circular and this is all in good fun, the truth is that what you might be viewing as "supply and demand" is actually an illusion because it has solely been driven by free money (low interest rates) and low credit worthiness (0-3% down again thanks to taxpayers willing to backstop FNMA) that has driven the BIGGEST ASSET BUBBLE IN HISTORY (not yelling as they'd say on the internet simply emphasizing ). This is all markets, all asset classes driven by debt, stocks, bonds, real estate and way overinflated automobile prices. It also has driven some of the ridiculous prices of gear. Anyhow, I normally would never post this on a music site (or any internet site for that matter) but I am very fond of RGO and the people that participate here. The reason I asked if you were flipping homes at the last top was out of curiosity as it reminded me of a conversation I had with a close friend recently when I asked him if he thought markets were in the euphoric mania phase which occurs at ever top. It occurs because people actually begin to believe "this time is different" and history shows it never is different, that's all. His answer was that he'll know when it's time to get out, so I politely asked him...." Did you get out of markets at or near the top in 1987, 2000 or 2007/2008?" He replied no, he was devastated in every one of them and so were his clients. Hmm.... so I asked the final question "If you never saw the tops then, why on earth would you actually believe you will see the top this time or more importantly act upon it and get out of the way?" Dead silence. Conversation over. One of my sayings is this, "risk is a funny thing, you never truly know how much you were taking until after the fact" Sorry for going on and on about this and jumping into a topic that was primarily about whether or not to move to Nashville. Maybe I am wrong this time, maybe it is different. However, I don't argue with history nor mathematical certainties. I agree with you about the broader points. I would never claim to be able to predict a bubble bursting. But I think it's pretty hyperbolic to say this market is "solely" driven by cheap money. Low interest rates are a factor, of course, a major one. But it's pretty hard for me to imagine that the high earners flooding this area would suddenly stop buying places to live if their loans were a point or two or three higher. "Well, honey. I do like these 6 figure positions we just got at Amazon and Starbucks corporate, but I just can't stomach a 5% mortgage. I guess we'll rent." I don't expect the rate of appreciation to stay at this clip forever, but I have a hard time seeing it go the other direction here in Seattle anytime soon. Of course I could be totally wrong. |
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). This is all markets, all asset classes driven by debt, stocks, bonds, real estate and way overinflated automobile prices. It also has driven some of the ridiculous prices of gear. Anyhow, I normally would never post this on a music site (or any internet site for that matter) but I am very fond of RGO and the people that participate here.