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Post by mobeach on Apr 19, 2015 12:34:04 GMT -6
I was just reading this article, we had the warmest year since 1880 but the ocean surface temps are the coldest in 1,000 years. The conveyor has slowed down to a point that the scientists didn't expect until the year 2100. If this continues we'll eventually see a new ice cap between Greenland and the UK. www.capecodtimes.com/article/20150413/NEWS/150419799
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Post by matt on Apr 19, 2015 14:29:18 GMT -6
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Post by mobeach on Apr 19, 2015 16:53:45 GMT -6
Dennis Quaid will save us!
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Post by Ward on Apr 19, 2015 17:18:37 GMT -6
This will affect Ireland, the UK, Scandinavia and other parts of northern Europe mostly...not us in the Northeast.
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Post by mobeach on Apr 19, 2015 17:33:21 GMT -6
Generally the warm gulfstream water keeps most snow storms north of the Cape Cod Canal, this year we got slammed south of the canal. Coincidence or the ocean was colder than normal.
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Post by matt on Apr 19, 2015 20:07:46 GMT -6
When the Big Chill hits, everybody is welcome to migrate to my place in the Great Desert Southwest. We'll have a big session and write a bunch of disaster songs. They'll be big hits, for sure. Assuming we still have power. . .
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Post by Johnkenn on Apr 20, 2015 0:49:09 GMT -6
You know...I'm not a global warming deny-er...but they've been talking about the world ending for 2000 years now. I'll just wait and see.
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Post by horvitz on Apr 22, 2015 12:29:14 GMT -6
Kim Stanley Robinson wrote a very interesting series of three books about exactly this scenario. The first is called Forty Signs of Rain. Of course it's a work of fiction only discussing what could possibly happen and then crafting an engaging story around it, but it is kind of scary to consider the potential worst-case outcome.
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Post by mobeach on Apr 22, 2015 12:35:16 GMT -6
I don't think it's a global warming thing, just the Earth and Sun doing what they do naturally.
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Post by Ward on Apr 22, 2015 13:13:56 GMT -6
Well, we just had the warmest march in 136 years according to NOAA.
So what happened 136 years ago? did humans force a mini ice age with all their wood and coal burning, and sailing ships disturbing the ocean currents... and firing off muskets and all that gunpowder causing an imbalance in CO2 levels leading to increased particular in the air causing the sun to be blocked more and thus global cooling???
Damn our ancestors with their fancy coal, wood and gunpowder burning!
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Post by matt on Apr 23, 2015 7:58:40 GMT -6
I am delighted to be alive during the Age of Oil. The internal combustion engine is one of the greatest inventions of all time, and petroleum products support modern life as we know it. On behalf of Mr. Shelby, I thank all who drive an electric car. Leaves more gasoline for me:
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Post by jimwilliams on Apr 23, 2015 9:34:43 GMT -6
Modern temperature measurements need to be looked at closely. Most older measurements were done in rural areas or in less developed cities. Today we take those measurements at 'hot zones' in urban areas that are reflective asphalt heaters. Twenty miles out of those zones the air is cooler.
In other news, yes, the climate is always changing.
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Post by matt on Apr 23, 2015 12:41:57 GMT -6
Modern temperature measurements need to be looked at closely. Yes, I think there is a lot of room for improvement in climate modeling, so we humans can start to get clean data and maybe figure some things out. However, there is large-scale empirical evidence of warming on a global scale, such as the retreat of ice packs and such. IMHO, finding the cause is important, but secondary in the end. What is critical is learning how to respond to temperature change - up or down. While the film The Day After Tomorrow wildly exaggerates, it should be obvious to everyone that a significant change in Earth's average temperature (2-3F) would be a bad thing on any time scale. And there's ample evidence that this has occurred many times over the history of the planet. Snow shoes, or scuba fins? That's the question.
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Post by keymod on Apr 23, 2015 13:24:31 GMT -6
Snowing briefly today here in southwestern Connecticut, temps supposed to be close to freezing tonight.
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Post by svart on Apr 23, 2015 14:13:04 GMT -6
Well, we just had the warmest march in 136 years according to NOAA. So what happened 136 years ago? did humans force a mini ice age with all their wood and coal burning, and sailing ships disturbing the ocean currents... and firing off muskets and all that gunpowder causing an imbalance in CO2 levels leading to increased particular in the air causing the sun to be blocked more and thus global cooling??? Damn our ancestors with their fancy coal, wood and gunpowder burning! Yeah, but they also say these things and you find out that the certainty percentage is +/-30%. They ALWAYS err on the side of alarmism because it makes them relevant, thus funding increases. If you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. So it could be the 3rd warmest march, or the 103rd warmest march, but you'd never know it.
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Post by svart on Apr 23, 2015 14:28:40 GMT -6
Modern temperature measurements need to be looked at closely. Yes, I think there is a lot of room for improvement in climate modeling, so we humans can start to get clean data and maybe figure some things out. However, there is large-scale empirical evidence of warming on a global scale, such as the retreat of ice packs and such. IMHO, finding the cause is important, but secondary in the end. What is critical is learning how to respond to temperature change - up or down. While the film The Day After Tomorrow wildly exaggerates, it should be obvious to everyone that a significant change in Earth's average temperature (2-3F) would be a bad thing on any time scale. And there's ample evidence that this has occurred many times over the history of the planet. Snow shoes, or scuba fins? That's the question. Most of pro-AGW folks do a lot of cherry picking when it comes to "proof", I've found. They'll talk of retreating glaciers in the northern hemisphere, but avoid talking about the 3% global ice surplus in the southern hemisphere, mainly around Antarctica. They'll talk about warming in anarctica, but avoid talking about the warm spots being centered around geothermal venting under the ice and the small amount of thermometers on the continent which skew the average wildly. They'll say that we'll all starve to death, but avoid talking about the fact that NASA's aqua satellite has found the globe to be the greenest it's been in quite some time and that the average food bounty has steadily risen with temperature (+0.8F in 200 years..) because you know, water and CO2 are plant food.. Anyway, it's quite obvious in a Danish ice core study that CO2 actually lags temperature in the long term. In layman's terms, temperature increases cause the CO2 to rise, not the other way around. The ocean and rain forest are 90%+ of the source of all CO2 in the atmosphere (humans are less than 1%) and the warmer the water, the more microbes flourish and expire CO2. The warmer the atmosphere, the more rain, the more growth in the rain forests and the more leaf litter decays on the rainforest floors with more microbes expiring CO2. wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/23/new-research-in-antarctica-shows-co2-follows-temperature-by-a-few-hundred-years-at-most/What we should fear is something acutely cataclysmic like an asteroid or this: wattsupwiththat.com/2015/04/23/another-thing-more-worrisome-than-global-warming-yellowstone-supervolcano-has-more-magma-than-once-thought/I think the whole climate change agenda thing is based on humanity collectively thinking that humanity is the most important thing on the planet. Egos are powerful things, even if they are misleading. Add in some circular logic and you have a recipe for disaster. We think that we and everything we do is so important that the earth can't possibly endure us being here, and then we think we're so important that the earth needs our help to endure.
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Post by svart on Apr 23, 2015 14:43:23 GMT -6
Modern temperature measurements need to be looked at closely. Most older measurements were done in rural areas or in less developed cities. Today we take those measurements at 'hot zones' in urban areas that are reflective asphalt heaters. Twenty miles out of those zones the air is cooler. In other news, yes, the climate is always changing. We call it the UHI effect, short for Urban Heat Island. Human structures typically absorb heat radiation quickly and emit it slowly, unlike grass and trees, which skews the thermometer averages upwards over time. The NWS/NOAA won't agree to investigate these temperature stations for a variety of excuse-filled reasons, a lot of which are IN airports or have been encroached upon by human buildings, etc. Funding shortfalls and general belief of infallibility seem prevalent in the climate science sector. There are, however, groups of volunteers who have gone and sighted a lot of these NWS stations and graded them for proper sighting, and up to half of them FAIL the guidelines that the NWS set forth for the locating of new stations. Most of them fail because they are too close to air conditioner exhausts, too near or on top of blacktop paving, getting hit with airplane jetwash, etc. When these stations are removed from the temperature records and the data is graphed, no statistical warming is shown. However, the NWS refuses to remove these stations, citing that an "average" would eventually remove the bias. They totally disregard that the average will always increase due to ever increasing encroachment! See for yourselves: surfacestations.org/
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2015 19:24:04 GMT -6
Hm. Mankind changed the planet more than anything in a very short amount of time, in relation to it's age. Especially in the last 150 yrs. with extreme amounts of unnaturally spent energy from coal an oil with no end in sight... IMO it is naive to think this would not have quite huge consequences that could easily erase mankind with it's limited ability to adapt to new environmental situations. May it be new viral epidemias, change of ecological systems, climate change or a mixture of everything. Nobody can really tell how long it takes, but it's unlikely mankind will stay forever on this planet the way it changes it's own environment now... Just 3% of all climate scientists do not agree that global warming is happening. This IS a very, very clear consensus. I take it as a fact. As do most people i know. Nearly all. I know the perception of these problems is a bit different in the U.S. as it is in europe, with a tendency to de-emphasize it. Which is understandable for political reasons if you read the international energy statistics concerning usage of primal energy sources.... Please take this as a personal opinion without any insult intended.
Around here, we have harder storms each year, more unpredictable hard weather changes, warmer winters, shifted seasons. Each year. Nobody in my small hometown here would came to the idea to deny global warming is happening and has quite dramatical effects, no matter if i ask academically trained friends or the taxi driver...btw. i live directly at the danish border. Everyone finds it is pretty obvious around here.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2015 19:35:50 GMT -6
Our weather is pretty exactly what was predictable due to the colder atlantic ocean surface - colder air from the north sea meets warmer air from the european landmasses and creates faster weather changes and harder storms. We already have this.
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Post by Ward on Apr 25, 2015 23:33:36 GMT -6
Well, we just had the warmest march in 136 years according to NOAA. So what happened 136 years ago? did humans force a mini ice age with all their wood and coal burning, and sailing ships disturbing the ocean currents... and firing off muskets and all that gunpowder causing an imbalance in CO2 levels leading to increased particular in the air causing the sun to be blocked more and thus global cooling??? Damn our ancestors with their fancy coal, wood and gunpowder burning! Yeah, but they also say these things and you find out that the certainty percentage is +/-30%. They ALWAYS err on the side of alarmism because it makes them relevant, thus funding increases. If you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. So it could be the 3rd warmest march, or the 103rd warmest march, but you'd never know it. Here's what actually happened 136 years ago: Weather record keepers stopped measuring in rural or unpopulated areas and moved to urban centers which are well known as being 'heat bubbles' due to heat retention and quicker daytime heating due to the abundance of concrete, steel and asphalt. Immediately, this resulted in warming temps being recorded. Temps have actually dropped, hurricane seasons have become less violent and 'stormy' in both magnitude and density of occurrence. There is more 'new' ice being formed in the polar circles than in the past 20 years and 2014 was one of the coldest years on record in both the Northern and southern hemispheres from January til July. There were a few exceptions, such as the Australian continent and nearby tropic zone but overall very few others. Climate change is constant. It always has been. It is not changing faster despite erroneous models by the scientists being paid to report that it is. Often former 'ice age' and 'global warming' alarmists are quick to point that "97% of climate scientists agree with mad-made climate change". But what they don't tell you is who is paying them and what they must say or 'prove' to get paid. Climate change is natural and often violent, and it is funny that man in his infinite arrogance believes he is capable of changing the Earth. I like what George Carlin said, that humans are like fleas on the earth and the planet could just shake us off. Will this mini ice-age we've been experiencing since ~1000AD end? Probably. All others have. It's not natural for there to be permanent ice caps on a planet this size with this much solar radiation to maintain them. Are sea levels rising? NO. Look at the news about the north islands of Japan rising 50 feet overnight in recent news. Doesn't fit well with climate alarmist's theories so it doesn't make their news. The earth expands by more than 360,000 lbs per day. EACH DAY. The Earth is expanding... so where is all the water coming from to keep the sea levels constant? Is it melting polar ice caps? There isn't actually enough water there to keep up. Is there an 'under the ocean' ocean. Possibly. Scientists are 'hypothesizing' such... i.e. speculating. I.E. making up some junk that they'll later be paid to prove, just like the coming ice-age theories in the 1970s and theit global warming theories in the 90s. Oh and for those who need a citation... I.E. Don't believe anyone else and too lazy to google anything that doesn't fit their own theories. "Barker & Anders, 1968, based on isotopic abundance ratios in sea floor sediments that estimated 6.12 × 1010 g/year, with an upper limit of 1.48 × 1011 g/year, which turns out to nicely match Ceplecha's 1996 correction of his own 1992 results. Using 6 × 1010 grams per year, I get about 164,000 kg per day (60,000,000/365) , or about 360,000 pounds per day. At the upper limit, a bit more than twice that." You can copy and paste that into www.google.com or www.duckduckgo.com if you wish to find about a BILLION references to it. I could keep going and going... but it would probably be a bit much for you all to read. Especially the majority of non-alarmists amongst us. And sorry Johnkenn if I've taken up too much space, been too verbose or come off as antagonistic. It's just my normal allergic reaction to bullcrap.
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Post by svart on Apr 27, 2015 7:17:21 GMT -6
Just 3% of all climate scientists do not agree that global warming is happening.This IS a very, very clear consensus. I take it as a fact. As do most people i know. Nearly all. I'm afraid that's been proven false by a handful of studies. It all started with a climate activist by the name of John Cook. He did not conduct an actual polling of scientists, he and his team researched 12000 scientific papers for key words related to "climate change". He reviewed only the abstracts of the papers, and not the papers themselves. He published the results and refused to let anyone peer review his work until he was challenged in court, because his work was done at a public institution, it was ruled public property, and he was required to release all documents, years after the media has already taken up the "97%" agenda. A 3rd party review found that less than 1% of the papers actually claimed humans caused any significant warming. Review of the math found that Mr. Cook must have either misrepresented the papers, or used only the mention of global warming(and any similar wording) as a vote for the author believing in global warming, regardless of the author actually citing climate change as human caused. To Mr. Cook, talking about climate change equaled believing in it. The US media has an agenda, to push alarmism to sell headlines and unfortunately the media has never apologized for being wrong in the past. link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11191-013-9647-9#page-1www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303480304579578462813553136www.populartechnology.net/2013/05/97-study-falsely-classifies-scientists.html
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2015 9:43:48 GMT -6
Sure you will find alot of studies that try to de-amphasize the dramatical changes in climate. We could post hundreds of studies each and won't come to a consent.
I am pretty aware that the perception of this topic is pretty different in the U.S than in the rest of the world. And this is by no means condescendent. This has political reasons, and most US citizens have the impression that the media overstress it, that there are several motives for that, that the UN tries to weaken the US or that the climate scientists are corrupted to make their claims or whatever other motives might be percieved. To us non-US countries it looks like climate change awareness in the US is more of a matter of belief than a matter of knowledge. The "American Psychologist" has researched this phenomenon and found three main reasons for this, i.e. that climate change is a mostly invisible phenomenon, that it's perception is mostly influenced by societies values and cosmovision, and that most americans simply don't have any personal felt experience with the consequences of the climate change. Really, i don't mean to be provoking or insulting anyone. This simply is how we are sometimes shocked or surprised from the outside, that only 2/3 of the US citizens belief in climate change and only half of them, that mankind has a serious influence on it. We see it like that. Even the most serious and conservative media in germany and most other european countries are concerned about this somehow. Of course, countries that have to struggle with the consequences of the climate change more dramatically, like southern countries in the 3rd world mostly, for sure are even more concerned. Because we all are aware, that global problems can only be resolved or probably only influenced on a global level... There is not even a word like alarmism involved in any discussion about climate change and ecological consequences in our media. No matter, how this sound to you, it is just a general description of what is consent around here, and it's pretty clear, that the US-american consent is something very different. So this is nothing personal against anyone. I hope you get the point....
Best regards, Martin
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Post by svart on Apr 27, 2015 10:00:58 GMT -6
Sure you will find alot of studies that try to de-amphasize the dramatical changes in climate. We could post hundreds of studies each and won't come to a consent. I am pretty aware that the perception of this topic is pretty different in the U.S than in the rest of the world. And this is by no means condescendent. This has political reasons, and most US citizens have the impression that the media overstress it, that there are several motives for that, that the UN tries to weaken the US or that the climate scientists are corrupted to make their claims or whatever other motives might be percieved. To us non-US countries it looks like climate change awareness in the US is more of a matter of belief than a matter of knowledge. The "American Psychologist" has researched this phenomenon and found three main reasons for this, i.e. that climate change is a mostly invisible phenomenon, that it's perception is mostly influenced by societies values and cosmovision, and that most americans simply don't have any personal felt experience with the consequences of the climate change. Really, i don't mean to be provoking or insulting anyone. This simply is how we are sometimes shocked or surprised from the outside, that only 2/3 of the US citizens belief in climate change and only half of them, that mankind has a serious influence on it. We see it like that. Even the most serious and conservative media in germany and most other european countries are concerned about this somehow. Of course, countries that have to struggle with the consequences of the climate change more dramatically, like southern countries in the 3rd world mostly, for sure are even more concerned. Because we all are aware, that global problems can only be resolved or probably only influenced on a global level... There is not even a word like alarmism involved in any discussion about climate change and ecological consequences in our media. No matter, how this sound to you, it is just a general description of what is consent around here, and it's pretty clear, that the US-american consent is something very different. So this is nothing personal against anyone. I hope you get the point.... Best regards, Martin Oh yeah, I don't take it personally at all! I'm a climate skeptic, I admit it. I used to be fearful of climate change, but I was required to do a paper on it in college, and while digging into the data, I found that the data itself paints a very different picture than what "experts" and the media portray it to be. In fact, it's quite dubious at best. Horrible inconsistencies, data "products" that are massaged and "fixed" before other scientists can see it, improper methodologies, agendas of governments and agencies, conspiracy, etc. It's enough to render any other better understood science unusable and unreliable, yet the dogma of "climate science" continues mostly because of an emotional content, rather than a scientific one, much like the anti-vaccine movement today. Anecdotal evidence has taken on an emotional argument and parents aren't vaccinating their children because of fear, not because of solid science. I always implore people to look at the data if they can, rather than taking "experts" words for gospel. Science is about growing and changing your hypothesis with the data, rather than "settling" the science on incomplete data. Just 30 years ago the scientific community thought that common stomach ulcers were simply caused by bad diet and stress alone. Two scientists hypothesized that a bacteria was the cause, but when they released their research, the scientific community laughed at them because it was so widely believed that ulcers were spontaneous, that the "experts" were unable to admit possibly being incorrect. These two scientists infected themselves with the bacteria, got ulcers, treated themselves, and yet it still took another 15 years for the scientific community to admit that they were incorrect, that their ego, lack of knowledge and tools had hindered the process. Now everyone knows that ulcers are caused by a bacteria, but not before the scientific community blacklisted two scientists with an idea that was counter to the beliefs of many. Now, we see the same thing with climate skeptics, the scientific community who believes that AGW exists, is attempting to smear and crush dissent from scientists who believe otherwise.
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Post by Ward on Apr 27, 2015 10:05:40 GMT -6
Just 3% of all climate scientists do not agree that global warming is happening.This IS a very, very clear consensus. I take it as a fact. As do most people i know. Nearly all. I'm afraid that's been proven false by a handful of studies. It all started with a climate activist by the name of John Cook. He did not conduct an actual polling of scientists, he and his team researched 12000 scientific papers for key words related to "climate change". He reviewed only the abstracts of the papers, and not the papers themselves. He published the results and refused to let anyone peer review his work until he was challenged in court, because his work was done at a public institution, it was ruled public property, and he was required to release all documents, years after the media has already taken up the "97%" agenda. A 3rd party review found that less than 1% of the papers actually claimed humans caused any significant warming. Review of the math found that Mr. Cook must have either misrepresented the papers, or used only the mention of global warming(and any similar wording) as a vote for the author believing in global warming, regardless of the author actually citing climate change as human caused. To Mr. Cook, talking about climate change equaled believing in it. The US media has an agenda, to push alarmism to sell headlines and unfortunately the media has never apologized for being wrong in the past. link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11191-013-9647-9#page-1www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303480304579578462813553136www.populartechnology.net/2013/05/97-study-falsely-classifies-scientists.htmlDude, you're totally getting copied and pasted the next time I get into a 'debate' with a 'climate alarmist'. OK?
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Post by jayson on May 17, 2015 5:08:05 GMT -6
I'll wait and see. But I can't say it's a graveyard I'm real comfortable about whistling past; there's no question we're all participants in a large and fairly unwise experiment. Makes me awfully glad I don't have kids. But who knows? At the same time there's a lot of reasons to be hopeful with the emergence of new energy technology that may very well upend the fossil fuel industry. But for anybody who thinks it isn't possible for human industrial activity to influence the climate I'd suggest you try visiting Beijing, China or Bangalore, India...or for that matter northern New Jersey. Or maybe some of the lumbering operations in the Amazon basin or Madagascar. These days global temperatures are primarily measured by satellite, so UHI is pretty much a planned for variable in the observation of climate data, it doesn't really skew the observations that much. And as for that supposed record high Ice content in the Antarctic; not so much. I think you better bust out your Claratin - but you better not write off the possibility that you have a major sinus infection - not an allergy. www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/05/15/this-antarctic-ice-shelf-could-collapse-by-2020-nasa-says/www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2014/11/14/does-our-military-know-something-we-dont-about-global-warming/
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