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Post by ehrenebbage on Sept 14, 2021 19:26:02 GMT -6
Well we’re talking about a fairly narrow set of things in this thread, Maybe in these issues Seawell has more gripes with the left than the right…but i personally wouldn’t presume to know what his feelings are across the political spectrum. If someone claims to be in the center I’ll take their word for it, unless there’s a preponderance of evidence that says otherwise. Which I don’t think you extrapolate from just this discussion. I don't have the luxury of hiding behind an avatar and a username. For the record, my username is my name and I'm the only one of me on earth as far as I know. |
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Post by seawell on Sept 14, 2021 19:28:13 GMT -6
I don't have the luxury of hiding behind an avatar and a username. For the record, my username is my name and I'm the only one of me on earth as far as I know. Cool, but I'm not going to be a creep and go look you up outside of what is offered up here  |
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Post by ehrenebbage on Sept 14, 2021 19:33:11 GMT -6
For the record, my username is my name and I'm the only one of me on earth as far as I know. Cool, but I'm not going to be a creep and go look you up outside of what is offered up here Haha! Well, I'm around and easy to find. Definitely not hiding behind anything, though maybe I should : ) |
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Post by rowmat on Sept 14, 2021 19:38:38 GMT -6
Honest question: Why aren’t we mandating that people get their diabetes under control? I don’t know the numbers, but from my personal, anecdotal experience in the hospital, 90% of these people who are seriously ill have poorly controlled (or not controlled at all) diabetes. It would not stop the spread of Covid, but it would greatly lesson the severity of it, which is to one extent or another is what vaccines do. In March 2020 (pre vaccines) when I saw the demographic of those who were getting seriously ill and dying from COVID it was obvious that not only the elderly were at risk but all those with weight, heart and diabetes issues were by far the most highly represented in the stats. At the time I was 103 kgs (227 lbs) and pre-diabetic and on medication for chronic reflux. So I decided it was time to do something about my metabolic health. In 12 months I lost 21 kgs (47 lbs), am no longer pre-diabetic and no longer required reflux medication. I do mix of low carb and occasional keto. My doctor didn’t recognise me the first time I went for a checkup after I lost the weight and walked right past my in the waiting room. Anyway my bloods came back excellent and she praised my efforts until I told her that it was keto that enabled me to lose the weight. She said keto was unproven and I should stick to the standard recommended low fat diet as promoted by the heart foundation. I had to remind her I initially did follow that diet on her recommendation and after six months I had lost no weight and then became pre-diabetic. Basically she still doesn’t believe that keto works and assumed I must be making it up. 🙄 So one thing I learned is just how unhealthy the majority of us are and if anything COVID has shone a spotlight on the Metabolic Health Crisis while many simply choose to ignore how much of a factor that comorbidities play in poor COVID outcomes. |
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Post by seawell on Sept 14, 2021 19:39:43 GMT -6
Cool, but I'm not going to be a creep and go look you up outside of what is offered up here Haha! Well, I'm around and easy to find. Definitely not hiding behind anything, though maybe I should : ) Well at least put your pet in your avatar like a proper RGOer 😁 |
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Post by seawell on Sept 14, 2021 19:43:17 GMT -6
Honest question: Why aren’t we mandating that people get their diabetes under control? I don’t know the numbers, but from my personal, anecdotal experience in the hospital, 90% of these people who are seriously ill have poorly controlled (or not controlled at all) diabetes. It would not stop the spread of Covid, but it would greatly lesson the severity of it, which is to one extent or another is what vaccines do. In March 2020 (pre vaccines) when I saw the demographic of those who were getting seriously ill and dying from COVID it was obvious that not only the elderly were at risk but all those with weight, heart and diabetes issues were by far the most highly represented in the stats. At the time I was 103 kgs (227 lbs) and pre-diabetic and on medication for chronic reflux. So I decided it was time to do something about my metabolic health. In 12 months I lost 21 kgs (47 lbs), am no longer pre-diabetic and no longer required reflux medication. I do mix of low carb and occasional keto. My doctor didn’t recognise me the first time I went for a checkup after I lost the weight and walked right past my in the waiting room. Anyway my bloods came back excellent and she praised my efforts until I told her that it was keto that enabled me to lose the weight. She said keto was unproven and I should stick to the standard recommended low fat diet as promoted by the heart foundation. I had to remind her I initially did follow that diet on her recommendation and after six months I had lost no weight and then became pre-diabetic. Basically she still doesn’t believe that keto works and assumed I must be making it up. 🙄 Congrats man, so happy for you! To do that during the pandemic is particularly impressive. That is so hilarious about your doc 😂 |
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Post by Quint on Sept 14, 2021 19:58:44 GMT -6
Or maybe the left has moved so far away that the center looks like the right to them now? I can't control who's being hypocritical in regards to covid rules and regulations. I'll let someone who is better with words try and explain why it matters(he's another classic liberal by the way that got left by the left): greenwald.substack.com/p/the-masking-of-the-servant-classTo be fair, I'm definitely on the left and don't claim to be a centrist on a lot of things, though I am on some things. In the case of Covid, I am not a centrist, at least not when considered in the context of the irresponsible things I think the right is doing on the Covid front. That being said, I think a centrist is still a centrist. If you say the left has moved more left, I wouldn't necessarily disagree, but then I think the right has moved equally as far to the right. So I don't necessarily agree with you on your perception of being a centrist. From where I stand, you seem to be pretty entrenched on the right. In any case, like I said, we're all entitled to our opinions, and I think we can all agree that the polorization doesn't lead anywhere good, but I'm not sure how to move past all of this either. |
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Post by Tbone81 on Sept 14, 2021 20:05:42 GMT -6
Well we’re talking about a fairly narrow set of things in this thread, Maybe in these issues Seawell has more gripes with the left than the right…but i personally wouldn’t presume to know what his feelings are across the political spectrum. If someone claims to be in the center I’ll take their word for it, unless there’s a preponderance of evidence that says otherwise. Which I don’t think you extrapolate from just this discussion. If you read back you'll see I said something very similar. Josh seems like he aims for the middle except when it comes to criticizing politicians and media responsibility through the covid crisis. In that regard, it's 99% the left's fault. Greenwald has lots to say about the cost and elitism of dem fundraising dinners, but he doesn't mention anything about Scalise offering a one on one coffee date for 100k. Nope, no hypocrisy there. Fair enough I guess. As for Greenwald, I don't have an opinion on him at all. Don't know him or his work. |
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Post by Tbone81 on Sept 14, 2021 20:10:43 GMT -6
Honest question: Why aren’t we mandating that people get their diabetes under control? I don’t know the numbers, but from my personal, anecdotal experience in the hospital, 90% of these people who are seriously ill have poorly controlled (or not controlled at all) diabetes. It would not stop the spread of Covid, but it would greatly lesson the severity of it, which is to one extent or another is what vaccines do. In March 2020 (pre vaccines) when I saw the demographic of those who were getting seriously ill and dying from COVID it was obvious that not only the elderly were at risk but all those with weight, heart and diabetes issues were by far the most highly represented in the stats. At the time I was 103 kgs (227 lbs) and pre-diabetic and on medication for chronic reflux. So I decided it was time to do something about my metabolic health. In 12 months I lost 21 kgs (47 lbs), am no longer pre-diabetic and no longer required reflux medication. I do mix of low carb and occasional keto. My doctor didn’t recognise me the first time I went for a checkup after I lost the weight and walked right past my in the waiting room. Anyway my bloods came back excellent and she praised my efforts until I told her that it was keto that enabled me to lose the weight. She said keto was unproven and I should stick to the standard recommended low fat diet as promoted by the heart foundation. I had to remind her I initially did follow that diet on her recommendation and after six months I had lost no weight and then became pre-diabetic. Basically she still doesn’t believe that keto works and assumed I must be making it up. 🙄 So one thing I learned is just how unhealthy the majority of us are and if anything COVID has shone a spotlight on the Metabolic Health Crisis while many simply choose to ignore how much of a factor that comorbidities play in poor COVID outcomes. Congrats! Thats a big deal, you should be proud for sure! Doctors are kinda funny when it comes to nutrition. They get pathetically little nutritional education in med school. And the American Heart Assoc is routed in "old school" nutritional paradigms that don't seem to reflect the current understandings we have of diet...either way, if it works keep it up! |
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Post by rowmat on Sept 14, 2021 20:26:52 GMT -6
In March 2020 (pre vaccines) when I saw the demographic of those who were getting seriously ill and dying from COVID it was obvious that not only the elderly were at risk but all those with weight, heart and diabetes issues were by far the most highly represented in the stats. At the time I was 103 kgs (227 lbs) and pre-diabetic and on medication for chronic reflux. So I decided it was time to do something about my metabolic health. In 12 months I lost 21 kgs (47 lbs), am no longer pre-diabetic and no longer required reflux medication. I do mix of low carb and occasional keto. My doctor didn’t recognise me the first time I went for a checkup after I lost the weight and walked right past my in the waiting room. Anyway my bloods came back excellent and she praised my efforts until I told her that it was keto that enabled me to lose the weight. She said keto was unproven and I should stick to the standard recommended low fat diet as promoted by the heart foundation. I had to remind her I initially did follow that diet on her recommendation and after six months I had lost no weight and then became pre-diabetic. Basically she still doesn’t believe that keto works and assumed I must be making it up. 🙄 So one thing I learned is just how unhealthy the majority of us are and if anything COVID has shone a spotlight on the Metabolic Health Crisis while many simply choose to ignore how much of a factor that comorbidities play in poor COVID outcomes. Congrats! Thats a big deal, you should be proud for sure! Doctors are kinda funny when it comes to nutrition. They get pathetically little nutritional education in med school. And the American Heart Assoc is routed in "old school" nutritional paradigms that don't seem to reflect the current understandings we have of diet...either way, if it works keep it up! “ And the American Heart Assoc is routed in "old school" nutritional paradigms that don't seem to reflect the current understandings we have of diet.”I would argue that “old school” is really only 50 years old at best. Cholesterol and saturated fats became demonised after Ancel Key’s (flawed) “Seven Countries” study following Dwight Eisenhower’s heart attack put the spotlight on diet. The processed food industry lobbyists along with big pharma (we have a pill for that) then got on the bandwagon and we are where we are today. |
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Post by seawell on Sept 14, 2021 20:29:05 GMT -6
If you read back you'll see I said something very similar. Josh seems like he aims for the middle except when it comes to criticizing politicians and media responsibility through the covid crisis. In that regard, it's 99% the left's fault. Greenwald has lots to say about the cost and elitism of dem fundraising dinners, but he doesn't mention anything about Scalise offering a one on one coffee date for 100k. Nope, no hypocrisy there. Fair enough I guess. As for Greenwald, I don't have an opinion on him at all. Don't know him or his work. He’s the one that let us know the NSA was spying on us all by breaking the Edward Snowden story 👍🏻 |
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Post by seawell on Sept 14, 2021 20:49:28 GMT -6
Or maybe the left has moved so far away that the center looks like the right to them now? I can't control who's being hypocritical in regards to covid rules and regulations. I'll let someone who is better with words try and explain why it matters(he's another classic liberal by the way that got left by the left): greenwald.substack.com/p/the-masking-of-the-servant-classTo be fair, I'm definitely on the left and don't claim to be a centrist on a lot of things, though I am on some things. That being said, I think a centrist is still a centrist. If you say the left has moved more left, I wouldn't necessarily disagree, but then I think the right has moved equally as far to the right. So I don't necessarily agree with you on your perception of being a centrist. From where I stand, you seem to be pretty entrenched on the right. In any case, like I said, we're all entitled to our opinions, and I think we can all agree that the polorization doesn't lead anywhere good, but I'm not sure how to move past all of this either. Cool, but who better to know who I am & what I believe than me? |
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Post by drbill on Sept 14, 2021 21:27:42 GMT -6
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Post by drbill on Sept 14, 2021 21:52:03 GMT -6
I ran the pandemic numbers for my county this evening....
As of today, 607 Covid deaths since the pandemic started.
Population 241,753 (2021)
Based on the county's numbers, the chance of DYING of Covid here over the last year and a half is 0.0025%. (rounded off for clarity) Roughly one quarter of one percent.
Then there's this in regards to the chance of dying from the Vaccine(s) :
UPDATE #2: As of 6:30 PM CT on July 21, 2021, the CDC's website stated through July 19, 2021, VAERS had received 6,207 reports of death (0.0018%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. The CDC's webpage's Last Update date reflects July 21, 2021.
Since more than 338 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the USA, this data reflects a vaccination-death ratio of 0.0018%.
Both small numbers, but not that far different than each other. I'm not a statistician. I'm not a mathematician. I'm just a dam musician. But to me, ironically, it looks like the chance of dying of Covid, or the chance of dying from the vaccine(s) based in CDC numbers is not all that different. The numbers quoted are correct, but maybe I have fuzzy math?
For a disease that most people's greatest fear is that of dying - the reality seems to be a pretty small chance. Every death is of course tragic. And possibly of greater concern are serious medical complications as well. (Including reported side effects of the vaccines). I don't really think there are the stats to measure percentages on those for Covid infections, but the death percentage is pretty cut and dried for both it seems.
I'm pretty sure that I have a WAY higher chance of dying riding my dirt bikes....
Yet our country (world?) is being literally torn apart at the seams in an effort to fight it. It sure seems like we could have done a better job....
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Post by christopher on Sept 15, 2021 0:29:42 GMT -6
I hear what you are saying, and I get that it’s frustrating. Maybe it helps to look at it this way? it’s a logistics issue. There is simply not enough medical supply to meet demand. By lowering demand, supply is there to digest the cases and keep the death rate low. Steps and precautions we’ve taken have allowed western medicine to do what it does, keep people alive. Does that make sense?
Maybe think of a factory designed to process perishables? If perishables arrive in a predictable manner. a million units may ship per year with a very low ratio of waste. Imagine if the whole million perishable items arrived in the same month, the waste would increase dramatically. The impact to other parts of the factory would also create losses there. Are those secondary losses attributed to standard business practices, or do they claim it is due to the sudden spike which ruined their operations as well?
This is happening right now sadly. Access to healthcare we’ve known is bent pushed to break. It’s a miracle the healthcare workers get up to and go to work to save our asses. They’ve worn masks all day for decades. They’ve warned us to get on board. We need to support them, and make their lives easier IMO.
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Post by M57 on Sept 15, 2021 5:37:07 GMT -6
I ran the pandemic numbers for my county this evening.... As of today, 607 Covid deaths since the pandemic started. Population 241,753 (2021) Based on the county's numbers, the chance of DYING of Covid here over the last year and a half is 0.0025%. (rounded off for clarity) Roughly one quarter of one percent. Then there's this in regards to the chance of dying from the Vaccine(s) : UPDATE #2: As of 6:30 PM CT on July 21, 2021, the CDC's website stated through July 19, 2021, VAERS had received 6,207 reports of death (0.0018%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. The CDC's webpage's Last Update date reflects July 21, 2021. Since more than 338 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the USA, this data reflects a vaccination-death ratio of 0.0018%. Both small numbers, but not that far different than each other. I'm not a statistician. I'm not a mathematician. I'm just a dam musician. But to me, ironically, it looks like the chance of dying of Covid, or the chance of dying from the vaccine(s) based in CDC numbers is not all that different. The numbers quoted are correct, but maybe I have fuzzy math? Yep, the math is off ..by a couple of zeros. 607/241,753 = .0025 or a quarter of a percent, just like you said, but.. 6207/338,000,000 = 0.000018, or less than 2/1,000s of a percent. Not that it's possible because no doubt many of those deaths in your county occurred before the vaccine was available, but hypothetically speaking, and to put the numbers in perspective ..if your county was fully vaccinated from the start, over 600 of those 607 lives would very likely have been saved. ..and possibly every one of them depending on the impact of the vaccine on transmission and becoming infected in the first place. Updating because I misunderstood the distinction between dying from the vaccine vs dying despite the vaccine. Given the current 1.2% death rate in England were people who had received both vaccine doses died (a conservative number because the percentage gets significantly smaller if they wait 14 days after the second dose), about 600 of the 607 people who died of Covid in your county would have survived. And given that 1.2% statistic, I'd be HIGHLY skeptical of the VAERS claimed percentage of people who have died because of the vaccine. I'll bet you need to add a few more zeros to that number. |
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Post by ehrenebbage on Sept 15, 2021 7:11:01 GMT -6
I ran the pandemic numbers for my county this evening.... As of today, 607 Covid deaths since the pandemic started. Population 241,753 (2021) Based on the county's numbers, the chance of DYING of Covid here over the last year and a half is 0.0025%. (rounded off for clarity) Roughly one quarter of one percent. Then there's this in regards to the chance of dying from the Vaccine(s) : UPDATE #2: As of 6:30 PM CT on July 21, 2021, the CDC's website stated through July 19, 2021, VAERS had received 6,207 reports of death (0.0018%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. The CDC's webpage's Last Update date reflects July 21, 2021. Since more than 338 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the USA, this data reflects a vaccination-death ratio of 0.0018%. Both small numbers, but not that far different than each other. I'm not a statistician. I'm not a mathematician. I'm just a dam musician. But to me, ironically, it looks like the chance of dying of Covid, or the chance of dying from the vaccine(s) based in CDC numbers is not all that different. The numbers quoted are correct, but maybe I have fuzzy math? For a disease that most people's greatest fear is that of dying - the reality seems to be a pretty small chance. Every death is of course tragic. And possibly of greater concern are serious medical complications as well. (Including reported side effects of the vaccines). I don't really think there are the stats to measure percentages on those for Covid infections, but the death percentage is pretty cut and dried for both it seems. I'm pretty sure that I have a WAY higher chance of dying riding my dirt bikes.... Yet our country (world?) is being literally torn apart at the seams in an effort to fight it. It sure seems like we could have done a better job.... I'm not suggesting that you did it intentionally, but this is an excellent example of how 'data' can be used to spread a false narrative. To start, you're using VAERS. VAERS is not 'cdc data' in the way you are suggesting. VAERS is basically an answering machine. Anyone can call and leave a message. VAERS makes it explicitly clear that the reports are unverified, that they shouldn't be used to infer causality, and that the data shouldn't be used in the way you are using it. You have to click a button that says you understand these things before you access the data. Then, you're comparing that to a single county with a relatively low death rate. Run the numbers for Maricopa county and you get .25%. Run the numbers for Essex County, NJ and you get .38%. Run the numbers for your age range in each place and the percentage will be even higher. Even if your numbers presented an accurate picture, which they don't, there are two other obvious issues. First, you're selecting deaths during a period when there has been a massive effort to prevent deaths. Kinda like saying 'pregnancies (while using birth control) are really low, so why is everyone using birth control?' Also, if you stop vaccination today there will be no more reports of death after the vaccine but the covid deaths will continue to climb forever. To your point about the relative danger, you're absolutely correct that you are more likely to die of something else. Almost none of those things are contagious. Of course you're free to run whatever numbers you want but if you are interested in a more thorough and accurate picture, you may want to run them again. *Yikes. I didn't even check the initial calculation to make sure it was correct. Taking that into account the picture changes even more dramatically. Bill is no dummy and I don't fault him for making mistakes when trying to work this out for himself. But I do fault politicians and media figures who come to the same incorrect conclusion and then spread it everywhere, along with the message that 'Joe is coming for you and your family!' They know better and they do it anyway. |
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Post by narxist on Sept 15, 2021 7:19:42 GMT -6
I ran the pandemic numbers for my county this evening.... As of today, 607 Covid deaths since the pandemic started. Population 241,753 (2021) Based on the county's numbers, the chance of DYING of Covid here over the last year and a half is 0.0025%. (rounded off for clarity) Roughly one quarter of one percent. Then there's this in regards to the chance of dying from the Vaccine(s) : UPDATE #2: As of 6:30 PM CT on July 21, 2021, the CDC's website stated through July 19, 2021, VAERS had received 6,207 reports of death (0.0018%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. The CDC's webpage's Last Update date reflects July 21, 2021. Since more than 338 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the USA, this data reflects a vaccination-death ratio of 0.0018%. Both small numbers, but not that far different than each other. I'm not a statistician. I'm not a mathematician. I'm just a dam musician. But to me, ironically, it looks like the chance of dying of Covid, or the chance of dying from the vaccine(s) based in CDC numbers is not all that different. The numbers quoted are correct, but maybe I have fuzzy math? Yep, the math is off ..by a couple of zeros. 607/241,753 = .0025 or a quarter of a percent, just like you said, but.. 6207/338,000,000 = 0.000018, or less than 2/1,000s of a percent. Not that it's possible because no doubt many of those deaths in your county occurred before the vaccine was available, but hypothetically speaking, and to put the numbers in perspective ..if your county was fully vaccinated from the start, over 600 of those 607 lives would very likely have been saved. ..and possibly every one of them depending on the impact of the vaccine on transmission and becoming infected in the first place. The math is a whole lot fuzzier than that than that. The premise that the VAERS data shows that 6207 people have died from COVID vaccines is false - not a matter of opinion but factually incorrect.
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Post by Quint on Sept 15, 2021 8:09:10 GMT -6
To be fair, I'm definitely on the left and don't claim to be a centrist on a lot of things, though I am on some things. That being said, I think a centrist is still a centrist. If you say the left has moved more left, I wouldn't necessarily disagree, but then I think the right has moved equally as far to the right. So I don't necessarily agree with you on your perception of being a centrist. From where I stand, you seem to be pretty entrenched on the right. In any case, like I said, we're all entitled to our opinions, and I think we can all agree that the polorization doesn't lead anywhere good, but I'm not sure how to move past all of this either. Cool, but who better to know who I am & what I believe than me? In all sincerity, I didn't mean my previous comment to sound harsh. Of course you know your own beliefs better than anyone else. So this more about definitions than beliefs. I was simply pointing out that, regardless of what you believe and where you perceive yourself to fall on the left/right spectrum, the things you post and say about Covid align with the right, and not even the moderate right. John Kasich and Mitt Romney, for example, don't go around saying these sort of things. Some might say they are centrist-ish or center right, at least certainly in the 45-era. In any case, their stance on Covid is nowhere near what is coming out of the right, or 45-era right, if you will, these days. So I'm in agreement with Ehren that you can't continuously cast aspersions at the left, all the while ignoring equal or worse behavior on the right, and still claim to be a centrist. You're not going to convince me that those views are part of a centrist stance on Covid. |
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Post by Quint on Sept 15, 2021 8:18:55 GMT -6
I ran the pandemic numbers for my county this evening.... As of today, 607 Covid deaths since the pandemic started. Population 241,753 (2021) Based on the county's numbers, the chance of DYING of Covid here over the last year and a half is 0.0025%. (rounded off for clarity) Roughly one quarter of one percent. Then there's this in regards to the chance of dying from the Vaccine(s) : UPDATE #2: As of 6:30 PM CT on July 21, 2021, the CDC's website stated through July 19, 2021, VAERS had received 6,207 reports of death (0.0018%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. The CDC's webpage's Last Update date reflects July 21, 2021. Since more than 338 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the USA, this data reflects a vaccination-death ratio of 0.0018%. Both small numbers, but not that far different than each other. I'm not a statistician. I'm not a mathematician. I'm just a dam musician. But to me, ironically, it looks like the chance of dying of Covid, or the chance of dying from the vaccine(s) based in CDC numbers is not all that different. The numbers quoted are correct, but maybe I have fuzzy math? For a disease that most people's greatest fear is that of dying - the reality seems to be a pretty small chance. Every death is of course tragic. And possibly of greater concern are serious medical complications as well. (Including reported side effects of the vaccines). I don't really think there are the stats to measure percentages on those for Covid infections, but the death percentage is pretty cut and dried for both it seems. I'm pretty sure that I have a WAY higher chance of dying riding my dirt bikes.... Yet our country (world?) is being literally torn apart at the seams in an effort to fight it. It sure seems like we could have done a better job.... I'm not suggesting that you did it intentionally, but this is an excellent example of how 'data' can be used to spread a false narrative. To start, you're using VAERS. VAERS is not 'cdc data' in the way you are suggesting. VAERS is basically an answering machine. Anyone can call and leave a message. VAERS makes it explicitly clear that the reports are unverified, that they shouldn't be used to infer causality, and that the data shouldn't be used in the way you are using it. You have to click a button that says you understand these things before you access the data. Then, you're comparing that to a single county with a relatively low death rate. Run the numbers for Maricopa county and you get .25%. Run the numbers for Essex County, NJ and you get .38%. Run the numbers for your age range in each place and the percentage will be even higher. Even if your numbers presented an accurate picture, which they don't, there are two other obvious issues. First, you're selecting deaths during a period when there has been a massive effort to prevent deaths. Kinda like saying 'pregnancies (while using birth control) are really low, so why is everyone using birth control?' Also, if you stop vaccination today there will be no more reports of death after the vaccine but the covid deaths will continue to climb forever. To your point about the relative danger, you're absolutely correct that you are more likely to die of something else. Almost none of those things are contagious. Of course you're free to run whatever numbers you want but if you are interested in a more thorough and accurate picture, you may want to run them again. *Yikes. I didn't even check the initial calculation to make sure it was correct. Taking that into account the picture changes even more dramatically. Bill is no dummy and I don't fault him for making mistakes when trying to work this out for himself. But I do fault politicians and media figures who come to the same incorrect conclusion and then spread it everywhere, along with the message that 'Joe is coming for you and your family!' They know better and they do it anyway. It's also worth mentioning that Bill lives in California. Right or wrong, California has had some of the more strict guidelines during the pandemic, so it stands to reason that numbers would be lower there than in, say, Mississippi. To be fair, both sides do it, but methods of prevention, in all of there various contexts, always get "Monday morning quarterbacked" in this way. |
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Post by seawell on Sept 15, 2021 8:38:09 GMT -6
Cool, but who better to know who I am & what I believe than me? In all sincerity, I didn't mean my previous comment to sound harsh. Of course you know your own beliefs better than anyone else. So this more about definitions than beliefs. I was simply pointing out that, regardless of what you believe and where you perceive yourself to fall on the left/right spectrum, the things you post and say about Covid align with the right, and not even the moderate right. John Kasich and Mitt Romney, for example don't go around saying these sort of things. Some might say they are centrist-ish or center right. In any case, their stance on Covid is nowhere near what is coming out of the right, or 45-era right, if you will, these days. So I'm in agreement with Ehren that you can't continuously cast aspersions at the left, all the while ignoring equal or worse behavior on the right, and still claim to be a centrist. Any particular reason why you & Ehren keep completely leaving out the fact that I just criticized the current golden boy of the right..the Gov of FL? 99.9 percent of my criticisms have been aimed at people making very important decisions right now who don’t have political affiliations that I know of(Walensky, Fauci, Tedros). More times than not when I’ve criticized the president I’ve made sure to note *both* administrations. I think I’ve been consistent in the target of my ire..hypocrisy & mixed/poor messaging. I can’t control who is or isn’t doing those things. Anyway, it’s not really important I guess but I don’t quite get it 🤷🏻♂️ |
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Post by Quint on Sept 15, 2021 8:57:44 GMT -6
In all sincerity, I didn't mean my previous comment to sound harsh. Of course you know your own beliefs better than anyone else. So this more about definitions than beliefs. I was simply pointing out that, regardless of what you believe and where you perceive yourself to fall on the left/right spectrum, the things you post and say about Covid align with the right, and not even the moderate right. John Kasich and Mitt Romney, for example don't go around saying these sort of things. Some might say they are centrist-ish or center right. In any case, their stance on Covid is nowhere near what is coming out of the right, or 45-era right, if you will, these days. So I'm in agreement with Ehren that you can't continuously cast aspersions at the left, all the while ignoring equal or worse behavior on the right, and still claim to be a centrist. Any particular reason why you & Ehren keep completely leaving out the fact that I just criticized the current golden boy of the right..the Gov of FL? 99.9 percent of my criticisms have been aimed at people making very important decisions right now who don’t have political affiliations that I know of(Walensky, Fauci, Tedros). More times than not when I’ve criticized the president I’ve made sure to note *both* administrations. I think I’ve been consistent in the target of my ire..hypocrisy & mixed/poor messaging. I can’t control who is or isn’t doing those things. Anyway, it’s not really important I guess but I don’t quite get it 🤷🏻♂️ You keep bringing up ONE example where you did that. Even if there have been other examples I'm not aware of, you're not going to convince me that the general thrust of your comments doesn't aim squarely at the left. The problem with your "evidence of hypocrisy or mixed messaging will guide my discourse" model is that many on the right aren't proposing to do anything at all to stop Covid and, in many cases, are actively working against any measures to put preventative measures in place. So, when they propose to do nothing, there isn't a whole lot for people, in power on the right, to be hypocritical about or for which they might provide mixed messages. That is, unless they get caught by a cameraman wearing a mask to a GQP donor event.  If you're in alignment with those beliefs that we shouldn't do anything of a preventative nature or not much of anything, then fine, but using your model neatly ignores all of the other ways in which bad behavior can and is happening on the right. So if you're going to put on the blinders to all of the other forms of bad behavior, you're not going to find any except that for which you've narrowly focused. |
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Post by ehrenebbage on Sept 15, 2021 9:02:23 GMT -6
In all sincerity, I didn't mean my previous comment to sound harsh. Of course you know your own beliefs better than anyone else. So this more about definitions than beliefs. I was simply pointing out that, regardless of what you believe and where you perceive yourself to fall on the left/right spectrum, the things you post and say about Covid align with the right, and not even the moderate right. John Kasich and Mitt Romney, for example don't go around saying these sort of things. Some might say they are centrist-ish or center right. In any case, their stance on Covid is nowhere near what is coming out of the right, or 45-era right, if you will, these days. So I'm in agreement with Ehren that you can't continuously cast aspersions at the left, all the while ignoring equal or worse behavior on the right, and still claim to be a centrist. Any particular reason why you & Ehren keep completely leaving out the fact that I just criticized the current golden boy of the right..the Gov of FL? 99.9 percent of my criticisms have been aimed at people making very important decisions right now who don’t have political affiliations that I know of(Walensky, Fauci, Tedros). More times than not when I’ve criticized the president I’ve made sure to note *both* administrations. I think I’ve been consistent in the target of my ire..hypocrisy & mixed/poor messaging. I can’t control who is or isn’t doing those things. Anyway, it’s not really important I guess but I don’t quite get it 🤷🏻♂️ I guess you did mention him once. You also said 'I don't pay attention to the fringe' when I made the point about the unbelievable amount of utter disinformation being put forth by media and politicians on the right. I guess I put that together with your insistence that fully-vaccinated AOC attending a carefully planned event where she took her mask off for a photoshoot is somehow equivalent, and came to the conclusion that you're minimizing the role of folks on the right and maximizing the role of folks on the left. If I'm wrong, please correct me. |
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Post by bgrotto on Sept 15, 2021 9:11:33 GMT -6
In all sincerity, I didn't mean my previous comment to sound harsh. Of course you know your own beliefs better than anyone else. So this more about definitions than beliefs. I was simply pointing out that, regardless of what you believe and where you perceive yourself to fall on the left/right spectrum, the things you post and say about Covid align with the right, and not even the moderate right. John Kasich and Mitt Romney, for example don't go around saying these sort of things. Some might say they are centrist-ish or center right. In any case, their stance on Covid is nowhere near what is coming out of the right, or 45-era right, if you will, these days. So I'm in agreement with Ehren that you can't continuously cast aspersions at the left, all the while ignoring equal or worse behavior on the right, and still claim to be a centrist. Any particular reason why you & Ehren keep completely leaving out the fact that I just criticized the current golden boy of the right..the Gov of FL? 99.9 percent of my criticisms have been aimed at people making very important decisions right now who don’t have political affiliations that I know of(Walensky, Fauci, Tedros). More times than not when I’ve criticized the president I’ve made sure to note *both* administrations. I think I’ve been consistent in the target of my ire..hypocrisy & mixed/poor messaging. I can’t control who is or isn’t doing those things. Anyway, it’s not really important I guess but I don’t quite get it 🤷🏻♂️ Obviously nobody but you knows what sorts of media you consume, but the particular stories and examples you point out in this thread align very squarely with what is pushed in rw media, which suggests certain consumption habits. And that, in turn, begs the question of what sorts of stories and examples are missing from or are underreported (and indeed, indicates certain types of stories that are OVERxreported) by your usual media outlets of choice. To be clear and in fairness, virtually everyone is guilty of this, so please understand this isn’t meant as any sort of indictment. Just tryna shed some light on some of these recent comments. |
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Post by drbill on Sept 15, 2021 9:29:23 GMT -6
I ran the pandemic numbers for my county this evening.... As of today, 607 Covid deaths since the pandemic started. Population 241,753 (2021) Based on the county's numbers, the chance of DYING of Covid here over the last year and a half is 0.0025%. (rounded off for clarity) Roughly one quarter of one percent. Then there's this in regards to the chance of dying from the Vaccine(s) : UPDATE #2: As of 6:30 PM CT on July 21, 2021, the CDC's website stated through July 19, 2021, VAERS had received 6,207 reports of death (0.0018%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. The CDC's webpage's Last Update date reflects July 21, 2021. Since more than 338 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the USA, this data reflects a vaccination-death ratio of 0.0018%. Both small numbers, but not that far different than each other. I'm not a statistician. I'm not a mathematician. I'm just a dam musician. But to me, ironically, it looks like the chance of dying of Covid, or the chance of dying from the vaccine(s) based in CDC numbers is not all that different. The numbers quoted are correct, but maybe I have fuzzy math? For a disease that most people's greatest fear is that of dying - the reality seems to be a pretty small chance. Every death is of course tragic. And possibly of greater concern are serious medical complications as well. (Including reported side effects of the vaccines). I don't really think there are the stats to measure percentages on those for Covid infections, but the death percentage is pretty cut and dried for both it seems. I'm pretty sure that I have a WAY higher chance of dying riding my dirt bikes.... Yet our country (world?) is being literally torn apart at the seams in an effort to fight it. It sure seems like we could have done a better job.... I'm not suggesting that you did it intentionally, but this is an excellent example of how 'data' can be used to spread a false narrative. To start, you're using VAERS. VAERS is not 'cdc data' in the way you are suggesting. VAERS is basically an answering machine. Anyone can call and leave a message. VAERS makes it explicitly clear that the reports are unverified, that they shouldn't be used to infer causality, and that the data shouldn't be used in the way you are using it. You have to click a button that says you understand these things before you access the data. Then, you're comparing that to a single county with a relatively low death rate. Run the numbers for Maricopa county and you get .25%. Run the numbers for Essex County, NJ and you get .38%. Run the numbers for your age range in each place and the percentage will be even higher. Even if your numbers presented an accurate picture, which they don't, there are two other obvious issues. First, you're selecting deaths during a period when there has been a massive effort to prevent deaths. Kinda like saying 'pregnancies (while using birth control) are really low, so why is everyone using birth control?' Also, if you stop vaccination today there will be no more reports of death after the vaccine but the covid deaths will continue to climb forever. To your point about the relative danger, you're absolutely correct that you are more likely to die of something else. Almost none of those things are contagious. Of course you're free to run whatever numbers you want but if you are interested in a more thorough and accurate picture, you may want to run them again. *Yikes. I didn't even check the initial calculation to make sure it was correct. Taking that into account the picture changes even more dramatically. Bill is no dummy and I don't fault him for making mistakes when trying to work this out for himself. But I do fault politicians and media figures who come to the same incorrect conclusion and then spread it everywhere, along with the message that 'Joe is coming for you and your family!' They know better and they do it anyway. Just a FYI - I did the numbers for my county myself. The text and numbers from the CDC and the VAERS numbers I copied from an article quoting a CDC released document. I'll see if I can find it again. I never checked their math. Figured it was good. LOL So difficult to really calculate this stuff, but it should probably also have been noted that the CDC numbers were shots divided into VAERS reported deaths. I'm sure a bunch of those people had had both shots. So the numbers change - for the larger. I'm not going to try to attempt that though. LOL My takeaway is that the death rate for either is very small, and perhaps, maybe....what's going on in places like AU is going too far. We're all going to die of something. Personally, I'd prefer it to be on a motorcycle vs. Covid, but we never really get to choose do we? |
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