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Post by seawell on Sept 7, 2021 16:38:16 GMT -6
I personally am much more concerned about people who were vaccinated(who did not have a previous covid infection) and are past the 6 month mark than those around me with natural immunity. What are you seeing that makes you feel this way? What's happening in Israel + the confusing messaging on if/when boosters may be needed. I can see it leaving people unsure and there may be a lapse where they think they have better immunity than they actually do. Really good convo here on natural immunity, natural immunity + 1 dose and no natural immunity with 2 doses that will give you a better idea of where I'm coming: |
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Post by ehrenebbage on Sept 7, 2021 16:42:32 GMT -6
Israel is interesting. Is the vaccine waning? It appears to be to some extent. It's one of a number of factors, but definitely a warning signal. I'll point out that in a society with a high vaccination rate, the percentage of vaccinated among hospitalized will be high. If 100% of the population is vaccinated and there are breakthrough cases, 100% of new infections will be among the vaccinated. As for India, I'm not sure they're tracking very carefully. Maybe I'm wrong? |
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Post by rowmat on Sept 7, 2021 17:01:35 GMT -6
Israel is interesting. Is the vaccine waning? It appears to be to some extent. It's one of a number of factors, but definitely a warning signal. I'll point out that in a society with a high vaccination rate, the percentage of vaccinated among hospitalized will be high. If 100% of the population is vaccinated and there are breakthrough cases, 100% of new infections will be among the vaccinated. As for India, I'm not sure they're tracking very carefully. Maybe I'm wrong? India is likely substantially under reporting cases as are many countries especially those with limited health infrastructure and resources. To put things in perspective most don’t get extremely ill or die so in a country with low vaccination rates and declining infection rates natural immunity appears to be playing a role. What remains to be seen is how natural immunity vs vaccine immunity compares in the long term infection/reinfection rates along with how mutations affect things. Israel’s infection rates plummeted after they began vaccinating heavily at the end 2020 and into the beginning of 2021 but that now appears to be changing. Also the UK’s infection rate is now climbing again. In the meantime this is useful for keeping track of the data as it changes. You can edit the parameters to compare the data between countries and if you want to see how COVID has evolved as the infections progess through each country press the ‘PLAY’ button on the bottom left corner of the graph and observe. ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR~CAN~DEU~ITA~IND~ISR |
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Post by bgrotto on Sept 7, 2021 21:09:27 GMT -6
Israel is around 70% double vaccinated (over 12yo) Worth noting that Israel has a pretty young population, with a lot of 12-20 year olds who haven't had a dose. The total vax'd population of that country is actually only 58% when counting the full population, as opposed to >12yo. Compare that to the top 11 vax'd states in the US, which all have greater than 60% fully vaccinated. In other words, the vaccination rate of Israel is actually lagging behind the highest-performing US states, and performing comparably with the US top 20 (#20 is PA, at ~56%). |
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Post by seawell on Sept 7, 2021 23:06:36 GMT -6
Considering how unlikely it is for anyone 20 years old & younger to be hospitalized I don’t think it’s unreasonable to base our vaccination rate/hospitalization discussion on adult populations. Something concerning is going on in Israel & the UK that I don’t think it is so easily explained away.
Keep in mind our “97% of hospitalizations are amongst the unvaccinated…” messaging here in the USA based those numbers starting in January when 99% of our population was unvaccinated. It’s going to take a bit for those numbers to catch up for us to get a clearer picture of what’s actually going on here. In West Virginia for example, they just saw a 26% increase in cases among fully vaccinated residents, a 21% increase in cases requiring hospitalizations and a 25% increase in deaths.
Sure, as more of the population is vaccinated it’s logical to see more vaccinated included in those numbers but not if you remember we were told this wouldn’t be the case.
For all the great things the vaccines have done, simply put they are not delivering on what was promised. That is very concerning to me because I don’t think as many people that lined up for shots 1&2 are going to be on board for shots 3, etc… (see Bill Maher’s comments on that subject.)
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Post by M57 on Sept 8, 2021 4:46:39 GMT -6
Perhaps of interest.... ^^^^ Indeed, the majority of the nearly 700 Israelis currently hospitalized due to COVID-19 are fully vaccinated against that virus, and vaccinated individuals make up a large percentage, if not a majority of those testing positive every day.If 100% of your population is vaccinated, 100% of your cases will be breakthrough.. In the case of Israel, in the over 60 category "the rate of serious cases among unvaccinated people over age 60 (178.7 per 100,000) was nine times more than the rate among fully vaccinated people of the same age category, and the rate of serious cases among unvaccinated people in the under-60 crowd (3.2 per 100,000) was a little more than double the rate among vaccinated people in that age bracket." (NPR)Israel let down their guard by June and threw out all masking restrictions. Nevertheless, of those fully vaccinated and hospitalized, most have comorbidities. There's no question that the efficacy of the vaccine wanes. Vaccine and booster shots may be the answer, but I wonder that we'll never find out because the anti-vaxxers/maskers will never give the idea a chance in the first place. Mutation is inevitable if herd immunity becomes the defacto standard of protection. I guess I'm a glass half full kind of guy. I'm coming up on my 6 month vaxiversary and I wear a mask in all indoor settings. |
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Post by ehrenebbage on Sept 8, 2021 6:47:47 GMT -6
Considering how unlikely it is for anyone 20 years old & younger to be hospitalized I don’t think it’s unreasonable to base our vaccination rate/hospitalization discussion on adult populations. Something concerning is going on in Israel & the UK that I don’t think it is so easily explained away. Keep in mind our “97% of hospitalizations are amongst the unvaccinated…” messaging here in the USA based those numbers starting in January when 99% of our population was unvaccinated. It’s going to take a bit for those numbers to catch up for us to get a clearer picture of what’s actually going on here. In West Virginia for example, they just saw a 26% increase in cases among fully vaccinated residents, a 21% increase in cases requiring hospitalizations and a 25% increase in deaths. Sure, as more of the population is vaccinated it’s logical to see more vaccinated included in those numbers but not if you remember we were told this wouldn’t be the case. For all the great things the vaccines have done, simply put they are not delivering on what was promised. That is very concerning to me because I don’t think as many people that lined up for shots 1&2 are going to be on board for shots 3, etc… (see Bill Maher’s comments on that subject.) Regarding West Virginia, a 26% increase is alarming but it's a relatively small number. The actual numbers (if accurate) are still overwhelmingly positive for vaccines...less than one percent of fully vaccinated people developed covid. Screenshot taken from here: dhhr.wv.gov/COVID-19/Pages/default.aspxI don't recall ever being told this wouldn't be the case. From 12/20: www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/recs/grade/covid-19-pfizer-biontech-vaccine.htmlAnd another, from 12/20, putting it in plain English. www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/12/12/945288710/what-you-need-to-know-as-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-heads-your-wayBeen making my way through the Dr Gandhi interview and find it interesting and informative, especially in their assessment of the challenges of messaging. Their takeaway re: vaccines is that the US dropped the ball by not vaccinating enough people early on. I totally agree about their point re: shaming, though I find it ironic that they repeatedly shame the shamers : ) Attachments:
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Post by EmRR on Sept 8, 2021 6:58:58 GMT -6
I had Moderna #2 on 4/11. Monthly antibody test just came up negative, was still a pretty strong line a month ago. I'm sure the practical meaning of this will come into the conversation at some point.
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Post by matt@IAA on Sept 8, 2021 8:23:34 GMT -6
Personally I don't worry to much about antibody numbers. There's a study going on in Texas right now called CARES that's doing antibody surveillance. It's pretty interesting, people with vaccination have spike protein antibodies in the 1250-2000 range, prior infection in the 150 range. No idea how that translates to a binary yes/no test. And if antibodies wane, you still have protection. Perhaps not as robust at prevention infection, but still protection from disease because you have B cell and T cells that can jump in rapidly.
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Post by bgrotto on Sept 8, 2021 8:36:51 GMT -6
That judge's decision to force the hospital to administer ivermectin has been overturned.
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Post by seawell on Sept 8, 2021 10:30:48 GMT -6
Considering how unlikely it is for anyone 20 years old & younger to be hospitalized I don’t think it’s unreasonable to base our vaccination rate/hospitalization discussion on adult populations. Something concerning is going on in Israel & the UK that I don’t think it is so easily explained away. Keep in mind our “97% of hospitalizations are amongst the unvaccinated…” messaging here in the USA based those numbers starting in January when 99% of our population was unvaccinated. It’s going to take a bit for those numbers to catch up for us to get a clearer picture of what’s actually going on here. In West Virginia for example, they just saw a 26% increase in cases among fully vaccinated residents, a 21% increase in cases requiring hospitalizations and a 25% increase in deaths. Sure, as more of the population is vaccinated it’s logical to see more vaccinated included in those numbers but not if you remember we were told this wouldn’t be the case. For all the great things the vaccines have done, simply put they are not delivering on what was promised. That is very concerning to me because I don’t think as many people that lined up for shots 1&2 are going to be on board for shots 3, etc… (see Bill Maher’s comments on that subject.) Regarding West Virginia, a 26% increase is alarming but it's a relatively small number. The actual numbers (if accurate) are still overwhelmingly positive for vaccines...less than one percent of fully vaccinated people developed covid. Screenshot taken from here: dhhr.wv.gov/COVID-19/Pages/default.aspxI don't recall ever being told this wouldn't be the case. From 12/20: www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/recs/grade/covid-19-pfizer-biontech-vaccine.htmlAnd another, from 12/20, putting it in plain English. www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/12/12/945288710/what-you-need-to-know-as-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-heads-your-wayBeen making my way through the Dr Gandhi interview and find it interesting and informative, especially in their assessment of the challenges of messaging. Their takeaway re: vaccines is that the US dropped the ball by not vaccinating enough people early on. I totally agree about their point re: shaming, though I find it ironic that they repeatedly shame the shamers : ) I'm glad you're checking out that interview, I think they present a balanced approach that I can totally get on board with. Regarding what was promised, I know you're an intelligent dude and you did your research so I don't doubt that you had proper expectations going into it. I'm just talking more about some of the over the top, out front messaging like this that reached the masses: "It's Official: Vaccinated People Don't Transmit Covid-19" fortune.com/2021/04/01/its-official-vaccinated-people-dont-transmit-covid-19/and "Take whatever COVID vaccine you can get. All of them stop death and hospitalization." www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2021/02/12/all-covid-vaccines-stop-death-severe-illness-column/6709455002/They spoke so matter of factly and it turns out they were wrong. I'm not surprised and I can't say I ever believed it but I do think it has been confusing and concerning to a lot of people. |
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Post by ehrenebbage on Sept 8, 2021 11:25:19 GMT -6
Yeah, I've seen a few of his videos and appreciate his take. I think it's important to remember that things become clear in retrospect, but aren't always so clear in the moment...I think his criticisms are sound but not always practical. I'd point out that they seem to be suggesting different approaches at different points in the conversations. Like, they make the point that the public is confused and sometimes put off when officials make statements based on current data, only to revise their recommendations when new data appears. The suggestion is to simplify the messaging and not focus on every little development in real time. Later, they wonder why public policy doesn't reflect the most recent data. Public policy is hard. Our country is enormous with significant diversity in every way. It's impossible to present a message which will be heard and understood in the same way by all people. On top of that, we've made some societal decisions that put us in a pretty precarious position when it comes to handling a pandemic (or any large crisis, really). Hopefully we figure out how to address that but I'm not very encouraged at the moment. I just read the USA Today article and it clearly states that vaccinated people still become infected, it's unclear how well the vaccine might prevent transmission, that variants might evade vaccines and that the duration of immunity is unclear. I'm not sure I've ever heard a promise that vaccines are perfect and permanent. |
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Post by seawell on Sept 8, 2021 11:58:52 GMT -6
Yeah, I've seen a few of his videos and appreciate his take. I think it's important to remember that things become clear in retrospect, but aren't always so clear in the moment...I think his criticisms are sound but not always practical. I'd point out that they seem to be suggesting different approaches at different points in the conversations. Like, they make the point that the public is confused and sometimes put off when officials make statements based on current data, only to revise their recommendations when new data appears. The suggestion is to simplify the messaging and not focus on every little development in real time. Later, they wonder why public policy doesn't reflect the most recent data. Public policy is hard. Our country is enormous with significant diversity in every way. It's impossible to present a message which will be heard and understood in the same way by all people. On top of that, we've made some societal decisions that put us in a pretty precarious position when it comes to handling a pandemic (or any large crisis, really). Hopefully we figure out how to address that but I'm not very encouraged at the moment. I just read the USA Today article and it clearly states that vaccinated people still become infected, it's unclear how well the vaccine might prevent transmission, that variants might evade vaccines and that the duration of immunity is unclear. I'm not sure I've ever heard a promise that vaccines are perfect and permanent. Right, but the USA Today article also said they all stop hospitalization and death but they don't. You have to remember we started here: and here... 46 said, "If you're vaccinated, you're not going to be hospitalized, you're not going to be in the ICU unit and you're not going to die." 46 Town HallGoing from *you won't catch it and you can't spread it* to *at least you won't be hospitalized or die.*..to *it's booster time,* is quite a ride for a lot of people. I get it that the vaccines never promised permanent immunity but they did promise a lot else that isn't panning out. Again, I'm thankful for all they have done but I think this is an issue and I don't know why they were so over the top in the beginning. To get more people to take it I guess but isn't that lying? Kind of like what they did with masks at first. It goes back to the old saying that trust is gained in drops and lost in buckets. So, what I would like to see is 100% honesty moving forward(even though I understand that is difficult and complicated) and for them to stop acting like natural immunity isn't a thing and that EVERYTHING is the fault of unvaccinated people. That narrative is going to pan out about as well as all the above listed have. I think they have thought they'd just break a little bad news as they go along to help people digest it but instead it seems to me it has made people feel like frogs getting boiled 1 degree at a time and there is a serious trust issue. |
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Post by seawell on Sept 8, 2021 12:15:09 GMT -6
Doh. “The Mississippi Department of Health sent a letter out to to the MS Health Alert Network on Friday warning health professionals of the spike in poisonings from individuals digesting ivermectin. “At least 70% of the recent calls have been related to ingestion of livestock or animal formulations of ivermectin purchased at livestock supply centers,” the letter stated.” Just an FYI, this turned out to be 2% not 70%. That's quite the error. |
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Post by ehrenebbage on Sept 8, 2021 12:49:10 GMT -6
Yeah, I've seen a few of his videos and appreciate his take. I think it's important to remember that things become clear in retrospect, but aren't always so clear in the moment...I think his criticisms are sound but not always practical. I'd point out that they seem to be suggesting different approaches at different points in the conversations. Like, they make the point that the public is confused and sometimes put off when officials make statements based on current data, only to revise their recommendations when new data appears. The suggestion is to simplify the messaging and not focus on every little development in real time. Later, they wonder why public policy doesn't reflect the most recent data. Public policy is hard. Our country is enormous with significant diversity in every way. It's impossible to present a message which will be heard and understood in the same way by all people. On top of that, we've made some societal decisions that put us in a pretty precarious position when it comes to handling a pandemic (or any large crisis, really). Hopefully we figure out how to address that but I'm not very encouraged at the moment. I just read the USA Today article and it clearly states that vaccinated people still become infected, it's unclear how well the vaccine might prevent transmission, that variants might evade vaccines and that the duration of immunity is unclear. I'm not sure I've ever heard a promise that vaccines are perfect and permanent. Right, but the USA Today article also said they all stop hospitalization and death but they don't. You have to remember we started here: and here... 46 said, "If you're vaccinated, you're not going to be hospitalized, you're not going to be in the ICU unit and you're not going to die." 46 Town HallGoing from *you won't catch it and you can't spread it* to *at least you won't be hospitalized or die.*..to *it's booster time,* is quite a ride for a lot of people. I get it that the vaccines never promised permanent immunity but they did promise a lot else that isn't panning out. Again, I'm thankful for all they have done but I think this is an issue and I don't know why they were so over the top in the beginning. To get more people to take it I guess but isn't that lying? Kind of like what they did with masks at first. It goes back to the old saying that trust is gained in drops and lost in buckets. So, what I would like to see is 100% honesty moving forward(even though I understand that is difficult and complicated) and for them to stop acting like natural immunity isn't a thing and that EVERYTHING is the fault of unvaccinated people. That narrative is going to pan out about as well as all the above listed have. I think they have thought they'd just break a little bad news as they go along to help people digest it but instead it seems to me it has made people feel like frogs getting boiled 1 degree at a time and there is a serious trust issue. I get you but I'm not sure what else they should have said if the data led to that conclusion. Looking at the current numbers for WV, .009% of people who were fully vaccinated have died. Less than 1% of fully vaccinated people have developed covid. Don't see a number for the hospitalization rate among vaccinated West Virginians, but it's clearly less than 1%. That is fantastically low, even after the recent increase in breakthrough cases. So, yes, it was technically inaccurate to tell people that they wouldn't go to the hospital. But practically speaking, the percentage of vaccinated people becoming ill is super, super low and totally in line with what the vaccine trials indicated. I'm still kinda puzzled as to why the focus is on parsing these statements, which get corrected as data emerges, and holding people accountable to the absolute truth as understood in retrospect...maybe they said vaccinated people won't die and the truth turns out that .009% of vaccinated people will die. Is that a significant difference? Why not focus on the statements of people with massive platforms who continue to deny that covid is a threat, or those who insist that the freedom to go without a mask is more important than bringing the pandemic under control? What about the people who insist that vaccines are the real danger, despite 5 billion pieces of evidence to the contrary? What about people who insist (with little evidence) that there is a 100% effective prophylactic solution? |
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Post by ehrenebbage on Sept 8, 2021 12:50:21 GMT -6
Doh. “The Mississippi Department of Health sent a letter out to to the MS Health Alert Network on Friday warning health professionals of the spike in poisonings from individuals digesting ivermectin. “At least 70% of the recent calls have been related to ingestion of livestock or animal formulations of ivermectin purchased at livestock supply centers,” the letter stated.” Just an FYI, this turned out to be 2% not 70%. That's quite the error. 100% with you here. Media et al need to get it together. |
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Post by seawell on Sept 8, 2021 13:04:10 GMT -6
Right, but the USA Today article also said they all stop hospitalization and death but they don't. You have to remember we started here: and here... 46 said, "If you're vaccinated, you're not going to be hospitalized, you're not going to be in the ICU unit and you're not going to die." 46 Town HallGoing from *you won't catch it and you can't spread it* to *at least you won't be hospitalized or die.*..to *it's booster time,* is quite a ride for a lot of people. I get it that the vaccines never promised permanent immunity but they did promise a lot else that isn't panning out. Again, I'm thankful for all they have done but I think this is an issue and I don't know why they were so over the top in the beginning. To get more people to take it I guess but isn't that lying? Kind of like what they did with masks at first. It goes back to the old saying that trust is gained in drops and lost in buckets. So, what I would like to see is 100% honesty moving forward(even though I understand that is difficult and complicated) and for them to stop acting like natural immunity isn't a thing and that EVERYTHING is the fault of unvaccinated people. That narrative is going to pan out about as well as all the above listed have. I think they have thought they'd just break a little bad news as they go along to help people digest it but instead it seems to me it has made people feel like frogs getting boiled 1 degree at a time and there is a serious trust issue. I get you but I'm not sure what else they should have said if the data led to that conclusion. Looking at the current numbers for WV, .009% of people who were fully vaccinated have died. Less than 1% of fully vaccinated people have developed covid. Don't see a number for the hospitalization rate among vaccinated West Virginians, but it's clearly less than 1%. That is fantastically low, even after the recent increase in breakthrough cases. So, yes, it was technically inaccurate to tell people that they wouldn't go to the hospital. But practically speaking, the percentage of vaccinated people becoming ill is super, super low and totally in line with what the vaccine trials indicated. I'm still kinda puzzled as to why the focus is on parsing these statements, which get corrected as data emerges, and holding people accountable to the absolute truth as understood in retrospect...maybe they said vaccinated people won't die and the truth turns out that .009% of vaccinated people will die. Is that a significant difference? Why not focus on the statements of people with massive platforms who continue to deny that covid is a threat, or those who insist that the freedom to go without a mask is more important than bringing the pandemic under control? What about the people who insist that vaccines are the real danger, despite 5 billion pieces of evidence to the contrary? What about people who insist (with little evidence) that there is a 100% effective prophylactic solution? If those people were the head of the CDC or the President of the United States I would give them a harder time 😁. Seriously though, I wish all sides would be more focused on the solution and not just on being right. In other words there doesn’t have to be a bad guy or an enemy every time. If someone isn’t seeing something the way you are then maybe work on your messaging instead of ridicule/shaming. If it truly is about saving lives you’d think egos could be put aside here. |
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Post by ehrenebbage on Sept 8, 2021 13:12:50 GMT -6
I get you but I'm not sure what else they should have said if the data led to that conclusion. Looking at the current numbers for WV, .009% of people who were fully vaccinated have died. Less than 1% of fully vaccinated people have developed covid. Don't see a number for the hospitalization rate among vaccinated West Virginians, but it's clearly less than 1%. That is fantastically low, even after the recent increase in breakthrough cases. So, yes, it was technically inaccurate to tell people that they wouldn't go to the hospital. But practically speaking, the percentage of vaccinated people becoming ill is super, super low and totally in line with what the vaccine trials indicated. I'm still kinda puzzled as to why the focus is on parsing these statements, which get corrected as data emerges, and holding people accountable to the absolute truth as understood in retrospect...maybe they said vaccinated people won't die and the truth turns out that .009% of vaccinated people will die. Is that a significant difference? Why not focus on the statements of people with massive platforms who continue to deny that covid is a threat, or those who insist that the freedom to go without a mask is more important than bringing the pandemic under control? What about the people who insist that vaccines are the real danger, despite 5 billion pieces of evidence to the contrary? What about people who insist (with little evidence) that there is a 100% effective prophylactic solution? If those people were the head of the CDC or the President of the United States I would give them a harder time 😁. Seriously though, I wish all sides would be more focused on the solution and not just on being right. In other words there doesn’t have to be a bad guy or an enemy every time. If someone isn’t seeing something the way you are then maybe work on your messaging instead of ridicule/shaming. If it truly is about saving lives you’d think egos could be put aside here. Agreed re: solutions and egos for sure. Not so sure that it's important to hold someone's feet to the fire over a .009% error when there are congresspeople and governors who are doing far more significant harm. |
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Post by seawell on Sept 8, 2021 13:35:27 GMT -6
If those people were the head of the CDC or the President of the United States I would give them a harder time 😁. Seriously though, I wish all sides would be more focused on the solution and not just on being right. In other words there doesn’t have to be a bad guy or an enemy every time. If someone isn’t seeing something the way you are then maybe work on your messaging instead of ridicule/shaming. If it truly is about saving lives you’d think egos could be put aside here. Agreed re: solutions and egos for sure. Not so sure that it's important to hold someone's feet to the fire over a .009% error when there are congresspeople and governors who are doing far more significant harm. The reason being is that when you tell people they are invincible, they will go about behaving as if they are(potentially making things worse). It’s not all about West Virginia, that was just an example here in the US. It’s about potentially staring into our future by looking at the UK & Israel(already looking into a 4th shot!). |
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Post by ehrenebbage on Sept 8, 2021 14:58:52 GMT -6
Agreed re: solutions and egos for sure. Not so sure that it's important to hold someone's feet to the fire over a .009% error when there are congresspeople and governors who are doing far more significant harm. The reason being is that when you tell people they are invincible, they will go about behaving as if they are(potentially making things worse). It’s not all about West Virginia, that was just an example here in the US. It’s about potentially staring into our future by looking at the UK & Israel(already looking into a 4th shot!). I respect your take and really enjoy your side of the conversation, even when we may disagree, so please take this with that in mind... It seems like you're focused on a relatively minor point in the whole scheme of things. According to the CDC, there have been 12,908 vaccinated people who have been hospitalized for covid in the US through August. Of those, 2437 have died. That's .007 and .001 percent of the 173 million fully vaccinated people in the US. Sure, a minuscule percentage of vaccinated people will get sick and transmit covid. Sure, there was a relatively brief period, soon corrected, where some of the messaging was unclear to anyone who only saw headlines and sound bites. But as hanging fruit goes, this is pretty near the top of the tree and it seems strange to put much focus there. Criticizing messaging retroactively is informative, and I see your points in that regard, but it's not like this all happened in a vacuum. Every rounding error, corrected data point, mistake or miscalculation gets amplified 100 times over by people who thrive on blatant disinformation. Some of them, unfortunately, hold public office. Others are significant public figures. Their platforms are huge. So the broadcast could be more clear in some respects, but there are lots of people reaching for the dial and intentionally tuning it to random static. I think the scrutiny should fall on those people. |
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Post by seawell on Sept 8, 2021 16:46:39 GMT -6
The reason being is that when you tell people they are invincible, they will go about behaving as if they are(potentially making things worse). It’s not all about West Virginia, that was just an example here in the US. It’s about potentially staring into our future by looking at the UK & Israel(already looking into a 4th shot!). I respect your take and really enjoy your side of the conversation, even when we may disagree, so please take this with that in mind... It seems like you're focused on a relatively minor point in the whole scheme of things. According to the CDC, there have been 12,908 vaccinated people who have been hospitalized for covid in the US through August. Of those, 2437 have died. That's .007 and .001 percent of the 173 million fully vaccinated people in the US. Sure, a minuscule percentage of vaccinated people will get sick and transmit covid. Sure, there was a relatively brief period, soon corrected, where some of the messaging was unclear to anyone who only saw headlines and sound bites. But as hanging fruit goes, this is pretty near the top of the tree and it seems strange to put much focus there. Criticizing messaging retroactively is informative, and I see your points in that regard, but it's not like this all happened in a vacuum. Every rounding error, corrected data point, mistake or miscalculation gets amplified 100 times over by people who thrive on blatant disinformation. Some of them, unfortunately, hold public office. Others are significant public figures. Their platforms are huge. So the broadcast could be more clear in some respects, but there are lots of people reaching for the dial and intentionally tuning it to random static. I think the scrutiny should fall on those people. If you're looking at just this one thing, yes, but what I'm seeing is a consistent pattern over the past year and a half of either dishonesty, incompetence or both. I want to feel like the people in charge of these public health decisions actually know what they are doing but I'm starting to wonder... |
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Post by drbill on Sept 8, 2021 18:31:47 GMT -6
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Post by seawell on Sept 8, 2021 18:34:45 GMT -6
I want to feel like the people in charge of these public health decisions actually know what they are doing but I'm starting to wonder... Just starting to wonder now Josh??  🤣  |
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Post by dmo on Sept 8, 2021 19:32:35 GMT -6
Josh - one of the biggest issues is the fact that vaccines don't keep you from catching any particular virus - they act as pre-event stimuli so your immune system reacts more quickly thus minimizing degree of illness and your ability to spread the illness as a vector. As I said before - the only viral disease ever eradicated was smallpox via world wide vaccinations for true "herd immunity", the others we've "eliminated" in western countries still exist in other parts of the world because other countries don't vaccinate against them - so no global herd immunity. The talking heads didn't do a good job in covering this - I think they wanted to emphasize that vaccines work but created issues by trying to simplify the process needed to reach the levels of effectiveness they tried to portray. There are definitely nuances in how we approach vaccinations as the risk/benefit ratios are different for subsets of the population - but as a whole current data show the vaccines are very effective for reducing morbidity/mortality. But being vaccinated doesn't mean no chance of contacting/spreading illness.
I just got back from moving my son to Eastern WA for college - local news announced northern Idaho hospitals just went to crisis standards of care - haven't seen that on national news but it's a huge deal as it means the system there has crossed a threshold in ability to provide expected levels of care. Regretfully probably not the last region that will need to adopt these crisis standards - so stay safe out there.
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ericn
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Post by ericn on Sept 8, 2021 20:07:20 GMT -6
Personally I don't worry to much about antibody numbers. There's a study going on in Texas right now called CARES that's doing antibody surveillance. It's pretty interesting, people with vaccination have spike protein antibodies in the 1250-2000 range, prior infection in the 150 range. No idea how that translates to a binary yes/no test. And if antibodies wane, you still have protection. Perhaps not as robust at prevention infection, but still protection from disease because you have B cell and T cells that can jump in rapidly. What test are they using for antibodies? Makes all the difference in the world. Was talking to one of the guys trying to develop a reliable Tyter test who said that the virus is evolving to fast. |
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