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Post by matt@IAA on Apr 3, 2020 11:33:52 GMT -6
svartThat’s not what he said though. He said if we assume there are a lot of undetected cases it could be more akin to the flu than SARS or MERS, and that was written in February. He also said 100-200k dead in the US, last week.
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Post by the other mark williams on Apr 3, 2020 11:52:14 GMT -6
...and maybe we should listen to people like the Dr. Faucis of the world and then turn off the damn news. Regardless of the supposed bias of whatever news resource we consume, we must remember that they are trying to sell virtual newspapers and ads based on number of eyeballs. We should. Dr fauci is one of the authors that surmises this could ultimately be no worse that a bad flu if we could figure out how many were actually infected, but asymptomatic. I haven’t seen/heard him say that anywhere. I’d be interested to know where you saw that. He said the other day on CNN (that Jake Tapper interview) that he expects millions of cases, and between 100,000-200,000 deaths. But he has also repeatedly cautioned against relying on modeling estimates. It’s been a long time since we saw millions of flu cases in the US, and a long time since we had 100,000-200,000 deaths. I don’t know the last time NYC had to build field hospital tents in Central Park or take over the Javits Center, but I imagine it’s been a good long while. My point was merely to say that MSNBC will hear the Tapper interview and say “Fauci says miiiiiiilllllions of cases looming” and Fox will hear the Tapper interview and say “those ‘scientists’ used to say 2.2 million deaths, now they’re saying only 5 percent of that. What happened? Fake news?” Both networks (and respective websites) are drumming up viewers by playing to our worst instincts. |
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Post by Johnkenn on Apr 3, 2020 12:31:11 GMT -6
Which is exactly why I don't understand why so many who are intent on brushing away the better news that's starting to come out. I believe it's a way for people to dismiss their rush to fear, as if to say that their over-reaction was indeed warranted and that they're not actually duped by media sensationalism. Sure. As long as you’re willing to see the other side of that blade, where people put immediate faith in optimistic hot takes even when the it’s (unfortunately) a bunch of BS. There’s a lot of both scenarios going round. Wait - so you’re dismissing the possibility that there’s a scenario where this might not be as bad as the Imperial is saying? I just feel like the truth is most likely somewhere in the middle. |
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Post by Johnkenn on Apr 3, 2020 12:34:06 GMT -6
Data scraping seems so unreliable - bots gathering information from around the internet and plugging them into models.
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Post by Johnkenn on Apr 3, 2020 12:50:52 GMT -6
www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/04/02/scientists-believe-they-found-potential-coronavirus-vaccine/amp/Scientists believe they found potential coronavirus vaccine ByApril 2, 2020 | 8:12pm Scientists at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine believe that they’ve found a potential vaccine for the new coronavirus. The researchers announced their findings Thursday and believe the vaccine could be rolled out quickly enough to “significantly impact the spread of disease,” according to their study published in EBioMedicine. The vaccine would be delivered on a fingertip-size patch. When tested on mice, the vaccine produced enough antibodies believed to successfully counteract the virus. The scientists say they were able to act fast because they had already done research on the similar coronaviruses SARS and MERS. “These two viruses, which are closely related to SARS-CoV-2, teach us that a particular protein, called a spike protein, is important for inducing immunity against the virus,” read a statement from co-senior author Andrea Gambotto, M.D., associate professor of surgery at the Pitt School of Medicine. We knew exactly where to fight this new virus.” The vaccine follows the traditional approach of ordinary flu vaccines, using lab-made pieces of viral protein to build immunity. While the mice have not been studied over a long period of time, the vaccine was able to deliver enough antibodies against the coronavirus within two weeks, according to the researchers. The study’s authors are now applying for an investigational new drug approval from the US Food and Drug Administration. They hope to start human clinical trials within the next few months. Researchers said they sided with using a patch, rather than a traditional needle, to deliver the spike protein to the skin, which elicits the strongest immune reaction. The patch contains 400 tiny “microneedles” made of sugar and protein pieces. It would be applied like a Band-Aid with the needles dissolving into the skin. The vaccine would be “highly scalable” for widespread use, the researchers said in a news release. “For most vaccines, you don’t need to address scalability to begin with,” Gambotto said. “But when you try to develop a vaccine quickly against a pandemic, that’s the first requirement.”
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Post by ragan on Apr 3, 2020 13:01:03 GMT -6
Sure. As long as you’re willing to see the other side of that blade, where people put immediate faith in optimistic hot takes even when the it’s (unfortunately) a bunch of BS. There’s a lot of both scenarios going round. Wait - so you’re dismissing the possibility that there’s a scenario where this might not be as bad as the Imperial is saying? I just feel like the truth is most likely somewhere in the middle. What? No, not in any way. I'm not sure how you got that impression. I was agreeing with svart that people inclined to see this on the pessimistic side sometimes mentally discredit positive developments and adding that the reciprocal is also true (that people inclined to see this on the optimistic side sometimes mentally discredit pessimistic data). But this is purely talking about the psychology of people, not the actual reality of what this virus is doing/will do. I have very little to offer as far as predictions in that regard, I don't know that much about infectious disease. I'm just trying to use reliable sources and keep up with the rapidly changing picture they paint. And regardless of peoples' motives for framing this crisis one way or the other, I certainly hope the positive predictions turn out to be true. |
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Post by Johnkenn on Apr 3, 2020 13:11:44 GMT -6
Wait - so you’re dismissing the possibility that there’s a scenario where this might not be as bad as the Imperial is saying? I just feel like the truth is most likely somewhere in the middle. What? No, not in any way. I'm not sure how you got that impression. I was agreeing with svart that people inclined to see this on the pessimistic side sometimes mentally discredit positive developments and adding that the reciprocal is also true (that people inclined to see this on the optimistic side sometimes mentally discredit pessimistic data). But this is purely talking about the psychology of people, not the actual reality of what this virus is doing/will do. I have very little to offer as far as predictions in that regard, I don't know that much about infectious disease. I'm just trying to use reliable sources and keep up with the rapidly changing picture they paint. And regardless of peoples' motives for framing this crisis one way or the other, I certainly hope the positive predictions turn out to be true. I see - I just misread what you were saying. |
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Post by Bob Olhsson on Apr 3, 2020 18:01:11 GMT -6
The problem seems to be that we will probably all get it so the goal is to spread out when that will be.
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Post by rowmat on Apr 3, 2020 18:59:03 GMT -6
The problem seems to be that we will probably all get it so the goal is to spread out when that will be. Yes indeed most of us will one way or another.
As you infer the issue is the speed of transmission and although the final CFR will likely fall under 1% try telling that to the frontline healthcare workers who are currently working under life threatening conditions trying to deal with the sheer numbers of critically ill admissions.
This is where the seasonal flu comparison narrative I see many still referring to is misguided.
How many refrigerated semis and temporary mortuaries have been seen in NYC (and in other major cities) as a result of seasonal flu even during seasons of the highest mortality rates?
How the Czech Republic homemade mask industry went 'viral'.
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Post by Tbone81 on Apr 3, 2020 19:04:45 GMT -6
We should. Dr fauci is one of the authors that surmises this could ultimately be no worse that a bad flu if we could figure out how many were actually infected, but asymptomatic. It’s been a long time since we saw millions of flu cases in the US, and a long time since we had 100,000-200,000 deaths. I don’t know the last time NYC had to build field hospital tents in Central Park or take over the Javits Center, but I imagine it’s been a good long while. The US experiences somewhere in the neighborhood of 26 million cases of influenza every year, and averages 12k-25k deaths from it annually. And hospitals regularly get overwhelmed by it...the difference is when hospitals are overwhelmed by influenza cases its not all the hospitals in a region at the same time. But every hospital I've ever worked at has had several days, to several weeks, every year where they were completely at capacity and had to divert patients to other hospitals (from the flu).
As so many have already stated, its the rate of infection, coupled with a longer than average hospital length of stay that is overwhelming the healthcare system.
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Post by rowmat on Apr 3, 2020 19:22:42 GMT -6
Why the Coronavirus spreads so fast in comparison to the seasonal flu and the extensive ICU resources that are often required.
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Post by the other mark williams on Apr 3, 2020 19:31:14 GMT -6
It’s been a long time since we saw millions of flu cases in the US, and a long time since we had 100,000-200,000 deaths. I don’t know the last time NYC had to build field hospital tents in Central Park or take over the Javits Center, but I imagine it’s been a good long while. The US experiences somewhere in the neighborhood of 26 million cases of influenza every year, and averages 12k-25k deaths from it annually. And hospitals regularly get overwhelmed by it...the difference is when hospitals are overwhelmed by influenza cases its not all the hospitals in a region at the same time. But every hospital I've ever worked at has had several days, to several weeks, every year where they were completely at capacity and had to divert patients to other hospitals (from the flu).
As so many have already stated, its the rate of infection, coupled with a longer than average hospital length of stay that is overwhelming the healthcare system.
Thanks for the correction on that, Tbone81 ! I appreciate it! |
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Post by drbill on Apr 3, 2020 19:46:34 GMT -6
From my local perspective - the health care system is not being "widely" overwhelmed with the people I can actually talk to. I talked with my brother in law - re: his hospital in Denver - and that hospital is still well under normal capacity due to people staying away unless they feel they have C-19 (at which point they get sent home and quarantined unless they are REALLY bad), and also due to all elective surgeries being cancelled. Heard the same thing about a LA hospital - under normal capacity. We are almost at that 2 week - all hospitals on the planet will be hell on earth... Will check back at the 2 week + point to see how the predictions fared. But there is zero doubt that they will not be at the "hell on earth" phase in a few days.... So..GOOD news.  |
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Post by ragan on Apr 3, 2020 20:51:38 GMT -6
I’m not sure where the Hell On Earth In Quotes thing comes from. Some meme or something?
Also, the most dire predictions came from modeling this without any intervention. Can’t have it both ways, meaning being upset about the intervention AND being surprised that the predicted outcome with no intervention isn’t happening, or rather isn’t happening everywhere.
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Post by drbill on Apr 3, 2020 21:32:57 GMT -6
I’m not sure where the Hell On Earth In Quotes thing comes from. Some meme or something? Also, the most dire predictions came from modeling this without any intervention. Can’t have it both ways, meaning being upset about the intervention AND being surprised that the predicted outcome with no intervention isn’t happening, or rather isn’t happening everywhere. I'm not upset about the intervention - I think it's smart. And I'm not surprised that things are going to be better with it in place. But I am worried about the impact of the intervention though... It's going to be bad news either way you take it. Lives, careers, business's and savings/retirements/fortunes will all be lost due to the interventions. We just have to deal with it. The quote was from here - see pic. And it's stated as fact, but is outrageously overblown from where I'm sitting - 11 days into the 14 day apocalypse / end of days scenario. But what do I know? Maybe 3 more days will tilt the world upside down. One thing is for sure, we're not all in the same boat. The scenario's worldwide are quite different depending on whether you're in Northern Italy or in Siberia or in the saharan desert. I will say it again though, the emotional backlash from overblown statements like this will be as brutal over time as the virus. We're all adults here. Calm, factual and realistic info is what we need to get thru this tragedy. Not overblown "possibilities" stated as fact. Because the "facts" are literally changing every day. And from my perspective, more in a positive direction than a week ago. Meanwhile, my heart is aching for kids who are getting bombarded with the insane news who are too young to really assess it. And also for those without the faith to steer a clear path to make it through the madness that the virus - and the attempts to limit the virus - have thrust into their lives. Attachments:
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Post by ragan on Apr 3, 2020 22:24:38 GMT -6
I’m not sure where the Hell On Earth In Quotes thing comes from. Some meme or something? Also, the most dire predictions came from modeling this without any intervention. Can’t have it both ways, meaning being upset about the intervention AND being surprised that the predicted outcome with no intervention isn’t happening, or rather isn’t happening everywhere. I'm not upset about the intervention - I think it's smart. And I'm not surprised that things are going to be better with it in place. But I am worried about the impact of the intervention though... It's going to be bad news either way you take it. Lives, careers, business's and savings/retirements/fortunes will all be lost due to the interventions. We just have to deal with it. The quote was from here - see pic. And it's stated as fact, but is outrageously overblown from where I'm sitting - 11 days into the 14 day apocalypse / end of days scenario. But what do I know? Maybe 3 more days will tilt the world upside down. One thing is for sure, we're not all in the same boat. The scenario's worldwide are quite different depending on whether you're in Northern Italy or in Siberia or in the saharan desert. I will say it again though, the emotional backlash from overblown statements like this will be as brutal over time as the virus. We're all adults here. Calm, factual and realistic info is what we need to get thru this tragedy. Not overblown "possibilities" stated as fact. Because the "facts" are literally changing every day. And from my perspective, more in a positive direction than a week ago. Meanwhile, my heart is aching for kids who are getting bombarded with the insane news who are too young to really assess it. And also for those without the faith to steer a clear path to make it through the madness that the virus - and the attempts to limit the virus - have thrust into their lives. Ok thanks for the clarification. Felt like some sort of straw man thing over and over but I do see that one person did say it at least once. I’m curious. You who have found ‘the media’ to be going into histrionics, what’s your regular media diet? I’m honestly curious what you guys consume in your daily lives. I have no doubt there’s some truth to it, at all. I just haven’t seen it firsthand. Maybe I’m an outlier because we don’t have the TV on almost ever and it’s just in our room. We don’t have one elsewhere in the house. I follow some journalists on Twitter and subscribe to a couple of newspapers and magazines and those have all been pretty carefully chosen after they earned credibility in my view. Is that very different from what you guys consume? So what’s, like, the worst of the worst? Something that’s just totally disconnected from factual reality and wildly sensational and sure to scar the next generation of children? I’d be genuinely interested to see a clip or few of what you guys mean about how the media is so insane over all this. |
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Post by drbill on Apr 3, 2020 22:36:33 GMT -6
I'm not upset about the intervention - I think it's smart. And I'm not surprised that things are going to be better with it in place. But I am worried about the impact of the intervention though... It's going to be bad news either way you take it. Lives, careers, business's and savings/retirements/fortunes will all be lost due to the interventions. We just have to deal with it. The quote was from here - see pic. And it's stated as fact, but is outrageously overblown from where I'm sitting - 11 days into the 14 day apocalypse / end of days scenario. But what do I know? Maybe 3 more days will tilt the world upside down. One thing is for sure, we're not all in the same boat. The scenario's worldwide are quite different depending on whether you're in Northern Italy or in Siberia or in the saharan desert. I will say it again though, the emotional backlash from overblown statements like this will be as brutal over time as the virus. We're all adults here. Calm, factual and realistic info is what we need to get thru this tragedy. Not overblown "possibilities" stated as fact. Because the "facts" are literally changing every day. And from my perspective, more in a positive direction than a week ago. Meanwhile, my heart is aching for kids who are getting bombarded with the insane news who are too young to really assess it. And also for those without the faith to steer a clear path to make it through the madness that the virus - and the attempts to limit the virus - have thrust into their lives. Ok thanks for the clarification. Felt like some sort of straw man thing over and over but I do see that one person did say it at least once. I’m curious. You who have found ‘the media’ to be going into histrionics, what’s your regular media diet? I’m honestly curious what you guys consume in your daily lives. I have no doubt there’s some truth to it, at all. I just haven’t seen it firsthand. Maybe I’m an outlier because we don’t have the TV on almost ever and it’s just in our room. We don’t have one elsewhere in the house. I follow some journalists on Twitter and subscribe to a couple of newspapers and magazines and those have all been pretty carefully chosen after they earned credibility in my view. Is that very different from what you guys consume? So what’s, like, the worst of the worst? Something that’s just totally disconnected from factual reality and wildly sensational and sure to scar the next generation of children? I’d be genuinely interested to see a clip or few of what you guys mean about how the media is so insane over all this. I watch little TV. Mostly streaming when I do. And work. Tons of work. It's takes a lot of time at the tasks at hand to survive in the music biz these days - and that's how I earn a living. The wife likes "the Voice", so I tend to get roped in til I can't stand it anymore, and that' about all I get - TV / Network / Cable -wise. I do tend to check in and watch a bit of the shows that I'm writing for, but even then, not that much, cause honestly, they're kind of junk TV. I don't watch CNN, Fox, MSNBC or any of the "news" networks. Never. Ever. It's been 10-15 years since I've even casually glanced over them. For whatever reason, when I moved out of LA, and when Letterman left late night, I kind of fell out of watching TV in it's traditional sense. I'm not going to go into "the worst of the worst" - you can decide that for yourself, or maybe someone else will enter what will no doubt become a ****storm. It's all been stated here in this thread and others if you've been reading. Over and over. Facts are cool. Overhyped pseudo-facts designed to create chaos and fear are not. At least not for me. |
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Post by ragan on Apr 3, 2020 22:44:33 GMT -6
Ok thanks for the clarification. Felt like some sort of straw man thing over and over but I do see that one person did say it at least once. I’m curious. You who have found ‘the media’ to be going into histrionics, what’s your regular media diet? I’m honestly curious what you guys consume in your daily lives. I have no doubt there’s some truth to it, at all. I just haven’t seen it firsthand. Maybe I’m an outlier because we don’t have the TV on almost ever and it’s just in our room. We don’t have one elsewhere in the house. I follow some journalists on Twitter and subscribe to a couple of newspapers and magazines and those have all been pretty carefully chosen after they earned credibility in my view. Is that very different from what you guys consume? So what’s, like, the worst of the worst? Something that’s just totally disconnected from factual reality and wildly sensational and sure to scar the next generation of children? I’d be genuinely interested to see a clip or few of what you guys mean about how the media is so insane over all this. I watch little TV. Mostly streaming when I do. And work. Tons of work. It's takes a lot of time at the tasks at hand to survive in the music biz these days - and that's how I earn a living. The wife likes "the Voice", so I tend to get roped in til I can't stand it anymore, and that' about all I get - TV / Network / Cable -wise. I do tend to check in and watch a bit of the shows that I'm writing for, but even then, not that much, cause honestly, they're kind of junk TV. I don't watch CNN, Fox, MSNBC or any of the "news" networks. Never. Ever. It's been 10-15 years since I've even casually glanced over them. For whatever reason, when I moved out of LA, and when Letterman left late night, I kind of fell out of watching TV in it's traditional sense. I'm not going to go into "the worst of the worst" - you can decide that for yourself, or maybe someone else will enter what will no doubt become a ****storm. It's all been stated here in this thread and others if you've been reading. Over and over. Facts are cool. Overhyped pseudo-facts designed to create chaos and fear are not. At least not for me. Ok fair enough. I guess I wasn’t considering that it would be that inflammatory but maybe you’re right. I tend to be a lot more dispassionate about these things than most people. But surely you have something in mind when you reference “overhyped pseudo-facts designed to create chaos and fear” right? I’m just curious what it is you’re talking about, specifically. No clips is fine, I just hear these references to ghoulish behavior by ‘the media’ over and over. What is it we’re talking about? |
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Post by the other mark williams on Apr 3, 2020 23:28:19 GMT -6
I’m not sure where the Hell On Earth In Quotes thing comes from. Some meme or something? Also, the most dire predictions came from modeling this without any intervention. Can’t have it both ways, meaning being upset about the intervention AND being surprised that the predicted outcome with no intervention isn’t happening, or rather isn’t happening everywhere. I'm not upset about the intervention - I think it's smart. And I'm not surprised that things are going to be better with it in place. But I am worried about the impact of the intervention though... It's going to be bad news either way you take it. Lives, careers, business's and savings/retirements/fortunes will all be lost due to the interventions. We just have to deal with it. I appreciate your measured response here, drbill . You touched on this, but I'll reiterate that this whole thing is impacting the economic system in all kinds of spidery-web ways: for instance, the primary care medical clinic where my wife used to work may not actually survive this economic situation, but not from being overwhelmed with the virus itself. They just don't have any patients coming in for normal, routine things. Nobody wants to go sit in a doctor's office waiting room and risk being exposed to the SARS CoV-2 virus. And you also mentioned the need for flexibility to survive in the music biz these days, and that's exactly one of the things her old clinic hasn't had: flexibility. She'd been urging the network of clinics to start doing telehealth for the past three years, but they just didn't want to do the work to get there. Now they're paying the price for that, unfortunately, because some other clinics are seeing less of an impact due to their flexibility with telehealth. But regardless, hospitals that rely on things like elective surgeries to be the moneymakers for the hospital could be in financial difficulties soon (if not already), as those have been mostly canceled nationwide. So thanks for bringing up those points. The only tweak I would suggest is in your thought above: "Lives, careers, business's and savings/retirements/fortunes will all be lost due to the interventions." I would (humbly) suggest that those lost careers/savings/retirement, etc. will be lost to the virus, or to the pandemic. We don't know for sure how much may or may not be due to the interventions. Sans interventions, there would still be a lot of economic chaos. Maybe it would be less, maybe it wouldn't. Maybe it would be more intense but last for less time. Or maybe not. I'm just not sure we can know that for certain either way. I personally would not have attended several concerts I was planning to attend this Spring whether the venues had been shut down or not. Just would've felt too risky to me. But man, I really wanted to see Tame Impala live. I guess I'm saying that rather than ascribe the world's economic fortunes to a particular set of interventions, I think it's probably more accurate to say it's due to the virus that very few countries were prepared to fight. So far, it seems several of the countries best prepared have been the ones hit hard by the SARS CoV virus back in 2002/3, but they may see a second wave, for all we know, and their preparations may or may not be enough. There are just so many uncertainties in all this.  |
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Post by seawell on Apr 4, 2020 11:55:27 GMT -6
I just lost a dear friend to this horrible virus. He was admitted to the hospital just yesterday. I’m speechless & heartbroken. I’m in an area with very few cases so just wanted to say stay vigilant and be safe guys! Praying this nightmare ends soon.
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Post by ragan on Apr 4, 2020 12:17:24 GMT -6
I just lost a dear friend to this horrible virus. He was admitted to the hospital just yesterday. I’m speechless & heartbroken. I’m in an area with very few cases so just wanted to say stay vigilant and be safe guys! Praying this nightmare ends soon. Oh no. I’m so sorry to hear that. Wishing you and yours comfort and strength. |
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Post by chessparov on Apr 4, 2020 12:27:30 GMT -6
Sincere condolences.
Chris
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Post by the other mark williams on Apr 4, 2020 21:15:15 GMT -6
I just lost a dear friend to this horrible virus. He was admitted to the hospital just yesterday. I’m speechless & heartbroken. I’m in an area with very few cases so just wanted to say stay vigilant and be safe guys! Praying this nightmare ends soon. Oh, I'm so so sorry to hear this. |
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Post by matt@IAA on Apr 4, 2020 22:29:58 GMT -6
Sorry to hear that. Prayers assured.
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Post by chessparov on Apr 5, 2020 0:49:27 GMT -6
Just read that... Sam Clayton Jr. (not Little Feat's Sam Clayton) AKA "Samc" at GS, passed away a couple of days ago,
from the Virus. I only just came across it tonight, a little while ago. He was a very active and valued member. I'll miss him very much. RIP Sam.
Chris
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