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Post by svart on Apr 8, 2020 13:14:20 GMT -6
Two guys go for a walk, and pass by a burning house. The first says - "Oh no! That house is going to burn down!" and calls 911. They watch thoughtfully as the fire department shows up and puts out the fire. As they walk away, the second looks at the first and finally speaks up, saying "boy...you sure don't know much about fires."  Eh, lets make it a little more like the scenario at play.. Two men go for a walk. They walk by a house on fire. One calls the fire department and claims that a dozen kids are in the house. ALL the firefighters show up and put out what little fire was left because the average response time to a house fire is about 6 minutes and the average time to engulfment is about 3. Because all the firefighters responded to this overreaction, a person died in a car accident because there were no firemen left to extricate them and stop their bleeding. When asked why they claimed there were a dozen children in the burning house the person said "there could have been, so better safe than sorry" That's a lot more close to how this is playing out. |
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Post by chessparov on Apr 8, 2020 13:42:11 GMT -6
Sure thing Mark! Now if "Death Metal" went away... None of us are gonna mourn for that!  Chris |
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Post by svart on Apr 8, 2020 13:58:18 GMT -6
Sure thing Mark! Now if "Death Metal" went away... None of us are gonna mourn for that! Chris My first musical love was death metal. |
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Post by matt@IAA on Apr 8, 2020 14:50:52 GMT -6
Winky face fellas. Cmon.
Right now we're in a catch 22.
What we're doing from the benefit side is based on two things: the transmission rate of the disease, and the severity. Above a certain transmission rate, say around 2, half or more of the population will eventually get it (over a year or so). Which makes the severity really critical. R0 is pretty easy to estimate, severity is more difficult. The benefit is derived from preventing a certain number of infections, but you need to know the severity to know how big of a benefit you're getting.
The cost side is also based on two things: cost of intervention and the cost of inaction. Apparent of intervention is pretty easily identified, we're seeing it now. But the marginal cost of intervention depends entirely on the cost of inaction. And that all depends on... the severity of the disease. If this disease is very severe, the cost of inaction will also be high because people will panic, voluntarily isolate, etc. That cost may actually be paradoxically worse than the intentional shutdown.
Unfortunately we won't be able to make a real assessment until the severity is known, and that takes time or antibody tests.
Time is the nasty way: the more deaths we get, the higher the fatality rate must be (for example, we know it isn't 0.01% because we'd need the whole population to have already gotten it). Antibody tests surveying decent sized areas like NYC will tell us the number of mild or asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic infections we're missing.
Until then it's basically confirmation bias, FUD, and ignorance arguing with itself. Everyone can muster up sources that they are predisposed to like.
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Post by matt@IAA on Apr 8, 2020 14:51:52 GMT -6
What is certainly not wise is to dismiss the severe projections of the public health cost of inaction based on either the results of intervention or the economic cost of intervention.
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Post by drbill on Apr 8, 2020 15:10:53 GMT -6
What about the "hell on earth" stuff?
No one is arguing that wise and practical steps should be taken. I don't know anyone who is not on board with that.
But what about the hell on earth in EVERY hospital on the planet? I keep looking, but it's not showing up. Am I just statistically in a non-issue area? I posted my personal county's stats above.
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Post by ragan on Apr 8, 2020 15:26:05 GMT -6
What about the "hell on earth" stuff? No one is arguing that wise and practical steps should be taken. I don't know anyone who is not on board with that. But what about the hell on earth in EVERY hospital on the planet? I keep looking, but it's not showing up. Am I just statistically in a non-issue area? I posted my personal county's stats above. Why don't you just ask the one forum member who used that phrase? The "hell on earth stuff" = that one guy's post. What's the mystery? |
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Post by drbill on Apr 8, 2020 15:30:57 GMT -6
What about the "hell on earth" stuff? No one is arguing that wise and practical steps should be taken. I don't know anyone who is not on board with that. But what about the hell on earth in EVERY hospital on the planet? I keep looking, but it's not showing up. Am I just statistically in a non-issue area? I posted my personal county's stats above. Why don't you just ask the one forum member who used that phrase? The "hell on earth stuff" = that one guy's post. What's the mystery? I just did. As you previously noted, you have your subjective views, just as I have mine. Totally fair. But it seems like you don't like it when the discussion slides against your viewpoint. I could be wrong, but it seems that way to me.... Also, you know how things work. Forums are an open discussion. matt@IAA popped in with a fun littte fire story designed (I presume) to defuse the actual reality at hand right after I posted this mornings current stats from my county. Without actual comment to the factual info. Just a hyperbole story that was more accurately portrayed (IMO) by svart. |
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Post by ragan on Apr 8, 2020 15:42:17 GMT -6
Why don't you just ask the one forum member who used that phrase? The "hell on earth stuff" = that one guy's post. What's the mystery? I just did. You keep asking other people to account for his use of that phrase (which is actually what you just did). It feels like you're trying to attach the phrase to other peoples' views on the situation. When you report that your county is doing pretty well, would it make sense for me to say, "Yeah well my cousin took a picture of an ER parking lot [which isn't being used to treat COVID patients] and tells me it's a HOAX but a couple thousand Americans are dying from it daily, so how do you answer for that, drbill?" ? You keep asking me or matt@IAA to account for some other dude's phrase, as if it has anything to do with anything either of us have said. |
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Post by matt on Apr 8, 2020 15:42:30 GMT -6
Am I just statistically in a non-issue area? Could be, and frankly I hope so. The entire state of Arizona will likely benefit from social distancing and the level of cases and deaths will (hopefully) be suppressed. Here in Maricopa county the numbers are steadily rising, but the percentage of increase has leveled off over the last two days at 4% per day for the county to 1559 cases as of today 04/08. There's still a lot of people out and about though. I visited my local Safeway yesterday and there was almost normal traffic on the roads. But the freeway (loop 101) was almost empty. So odd. Many in the store were gloved and masked, as I was. Very weird to be buying groceries that way. Not many people shopping, panic hoarding is not taking place right now, and that's a good thing. |
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Post by drbill on Apr 8, 2020 15:45:26 GMT -6
You keep asking other people to account for his use of that phrase (which is actually what you just did). It feels like you're trying to attach the phrase to other peoples' views on the situation. When you report that your county is doing pretty well, would it make sense for me to say, "Yeah well my cousin took a picture of an ER parking lot [which isn't being used to treat COVID patients] and tells me it's a HOAX but a couple thousand Americans are dying from it daily, so how do you answer for that, drbill?" ? You keep asking me or matt@IAA to account for some other dude's phrase, as if it has anything to do with anything either of us have said. I'm not sure I understand your point or what you're looking for. |
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Post by drbill on Apr 8, 2020 15:48:28 GMT -6
Am I just statistically in a non-issue area? Could be, and frankly I hope so. The entire state of Arizona will likely benefit from social distancing and the level of cases and deaths will (hopefully) be suppressed. Here in Maricopa county the numbers are steadily rising, but the percentage of increase has leveled off over the last two days at 4% per day for the county to 1559 cases as of today 04/08. There's still a lot of people out and about though. I visited my local Safeway yesterday and there was almost normal traffic on the roads. But the freeway (loop 101) was almost empty. So odd. Many in the store were gloved and masked, as I was. Very weird to be buying groceries that way. Not many people shopping, panic hoarding is not taking place right now, and that's a good thing. Yes, I would say similar here. Plenty of social distancing, and yet people out and about. And also, definite increase in cases, but not exponential. Haven't figured out the percentages, but I'm guessing a bit higher than 4%. One thing I found odd (stats wise) is that seniors are less affected than 18-64 year olds. I'm wondering if it's because they are being more proactive about social distancing, while (some) younger folks are still trying to work, and are not worried about getting out and about in the midst of it. |
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Post by ragan on Apr 8, 2020 15:49:44 GMT -6
You keep asking other people to account for his use of that phrase (which is actually what you just did). It feels like you're trying to attach the phrase to other peoples' views on the situation. When you report that your county is doing pretty well, would it make sense for me to say, "Yeah well my cousin took a picture of an ER parking lot [which isn't being used to treat COVID patients] and tells me it's a HOAX but a couple thousand Americans are dying from it daily, so how do you answer for that, drbill?" ? You keep asking me or matt@IAA to account for some other dude's phrase, as if it has anything to do with anything either of us have said. I'm not sure I understand your point or what you're looking for. Ok. I take you at your word. You've brought up this phrase "hell on earth" a handful of times in response to people who haven't said anything like that. I'm saying just quote the guy who actually said that and ask him about it. It (perhaps wrongly) feels rhetorical to ask someone to explain or justify some extreme thing they've never said. Does that make any sense? It's kind of a tangent, and not very important. You just keep bringing up that phrase and seem confused about not getting a justification for it. |
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Post by drbill on Apr 8, 2020 15:50:40 GMT -6
You keep asking other people to account for his use of that phrase (which is actually what you just did). It feels like you're trying to attach the phrase to other peoples' views on the situation. When you report that your county is doing pretty well, would it make sense for me to say, "Yeah well my cousin took a picture of an ER parking lot [which isn't being used to treat COVID patients] and tells me it's a HOAX but a couple thousand Americans are dying from it daily, so how do you answer for that, drbill?" ? You keep asking me or matt@IAA to account for some other dude's phrase, as if it has anything to do with anything either of us have said. . You're getting paranoid now. I'll chalk it up to self-containment. I did not specifically ask either one of you. You both volunteered. Like I said, open forum and all. You know how it works, come on. |
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Post by drbill on Apr 8, 2020 15:54:05 GMT -6
I'm not sure I understand your point or what you're looking for. Ok. I take you at your word. You've brought up this phrase "hell on earth" a handful of times in response to people who haven't said anything like that. I'm saying just quote the guy who actually said that and ask him about it. It (perhaps wrongly) feels rhetorical to ask someone to explain or justify some extreme thing they've never said. Does that make any sense? It's kind of a tangent, and not very important. You just keep bringing up that phrase and seem confused about not getting a justification for it. Frankly, I'm too busy (maybe lazy? could be... ) to go back and find it in another thread, and paste it into this one. It's a "generic" call out to anyone who feels that's what's going on. If you don't, then you don't, and you can certainly feel free to ignore, because in fact (I presume) you don't feel that way. So why do you think I'm addressing you? You got me, I have no idea.... |
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Post by ragan on Apr 8, 2020 16:10:56 GMT -6
Ok. I take you at your word. You've brought up this phrase "hell on earth" a handful of times in response to people who haven't said anything like that. I'm saying just quote the guy who actually said that and ask him about it. It (perhaps wrongly) feels rhetorical to ask someone to explain or justify some extreme thing they've never said. Does that make any sense? It's kind of a tangent, and not very important. You just keep bringing up that phrase and seem confused about not getting a justification for it. Frankly, I'm too busy (maybe lazy? could be... ) to go back and find it in another thread, and paste it into this one. It's a "generic" call out to anyone who feels that's what's going on. If you don't, then you don't, and you can certainly feel free to ignore, because in fact (I presume) you don't feel that way. So why do you think I'm addressing you? You got me, I have no idea.... Ok. Maybe it's just a chronology thing. When someone says "the numbers offered these scenarios and what we see is.....blah blah blah" and then you post right after that saying, "But what about the 'hell on earth' stuff' huh?", it looks like you're responding to the conversation you're posting in. If that's not the case and you're just posting general thoughts without regard to what's been said right before, then I see where my last couple questions wouldn't make sense. |
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Post by drbill on Apr 8, 2020 16:15:51 GMT -6
Frankly, I'm too busy (maybe lazy? could be... ) to go back and find it in another thread, and paste it into this one. It's a "generic" call out to anyone who feels that's what's going on. If you don't, then you don't, and you can certainly feel free to ignore, because in fact (I presume) you don't feel that way. So why do you think I'm addressing you? You got me, I have no idea.... Ok. Maybe it's just a chronology thing. When someone says "the numbers offered these scenarios and what we see is.....blah blah blah" and then you post right after that saying, "But what about the 'hell on earth' stuff' huh?", it looks like you're responding to the conversation you're posting in. If that's not the case and you're just posting general thoughts without regard to what's been said right before, then I see where my last couple questions wouldn't make sense. Come on man, let's just drop it. The conversation started long before any of my posts this morning. I got up late.... If I'm going to post ANYthing, it's going to be after SOMEone else post unless I start a new thread. I know how to tag, and I know how to quote. And I'll leave it at that. |
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Post by the other mark williams on Apr 8, 2020 16:20:13 GMT -6
Ok. I take you at your word. You've brought up this phrase "hell on earth" a handful of times in response to people who haven't said anything like that. I'm saying just quote the guy who actually said that and ask him about it. It (perhaps wrongly) feels rhetorical to ask someone to explain or justify some extreme thing they've never said. Does that make any sense? It's kind of a tangent, and not very important. You just keep bringing up that phrase and seem confused about not getting a justification for it. Frankly, I'm too busy (maybe lazy? could be... ) to go back and find it in another thread, and paste it into this one. It's a "generic" call out to anyone who feels that's what's going on. If you don't, then you don't, and you can certainly feel free to ignore, because in fact (I presume) you don't feel that way. So why do you think I'm addressing you? You got me, I have no idea.... FWIW, I thought you were addressing the board at large, too. What I mean is that my interpretation had been tracking with ragan . I only remembered one guy here on RGO saying it would be "hell on earth," but it seemed like you were asking others to answer for that guy's claim, as it doesn't appear to be "hell on earth" in AZ. Peace, brother. |
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Post by EmRR on Apr 8, 2020 16:25:04 GMT -6
Here is the full chart: The flatness of the curve suggests that the authors refuse to speculate on the future. If so, it's a wise decision. Yes, June 21st is the end of the projection, obvious from scrolling the date bar. |
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Post by ragan on Apr 8, 2020 16:25:50 GMT -6
Ok. Maybe it's just a chronology thing. When someone says "the numbers offered these scenarios and what we see is.....blah blah blah" and then you post right after that saying, "But what about the 'hell on earth' stuff' huh?", it looks like you're responding to the conversation you're posting in. If that's not the case and you're just posting general thoughts without regard to what's been said right before, then I see where my last couple questions wouldn't make sense. Come on man, let's just drop it. The conversation started long before any of my posts this morning. I got up late.... If I'm going to post ANYthing, it's going to be after SOMEone else post unless I start a new thread. I know how to tag, and I know how to quote. And I'll leave it at that. I will happily stop asking about all the 'hell on earth' references and I hope you crack the case of why that guy made that comment a couple weeks ago.  |
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Post by drbill on Apr 8, 2020 16:48:14 GMT -6
Come on man, let's just drop it. The conversation started long before any of my posts this morning. I got up late.... If I'm going to post ANYthing, it's going to be after SOMEone else post unless I start a new thread. I know how to tag, and I know how to quote. And I'll leave it at that. I will happily stop asking about all the 'hell on earth' references and I hope you crack the case of why that guy made that comment a couple weeks ago. I don't need to "crack the case". I know why he made the comments. My whole point for bringing it up is that I think it's unfair to the uninformed or lesser informed, and potentially inaccurate and unfortunately it continues weeks later in the press and other spots. I can't completely commiserate with Mark as I've not been thru a divorce, but I too know other forms of what hell on earth is like, and this virus thing isn't going to come close except for the few that become seriously ill with it. For the rest of the world, it will be hell on earth inflicted on us by the press...and unfortunately, that's un-needed, and counter productive. I thought we might be above that here. I hope so. <thumbsup> |
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Post by chessparov on Apr 8, 2020 17:41:45 GMT -6
Sure thing Mark! Now if "Death Metal" went away... None of us are gonna mourn for that! Chris My first musical love was death metal. That'll show me not to TRY, to be funny! I should have picked something safer. Like Metallica. (I kid I kid!) Chris |
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Post by jeremygillespie on Apr 8, 2020 21:03:30 GMT -6
NJ / NYC hospitals and morgues are hell on earth right now. If it’s not as bad where you are then consider yourselves lucky and I hope it doesn’t get as bad for you as it is here this week.
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Post by chessparov on Apr 8, 2020 21:16:40 GMT -6
"Overall sense"-I agree with Dr. Bill/Svart.
But in a hot spot, like NJ/NY Hospitals (or like Italy)Absolutely agree... We ARE lucky not to be there right now.
Chris
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Post by drbill on Apr 8, 2020 21:16:51 GMT -6
Sorry for that Jeremy. Hang in there. I think the rest of the country wised up when they saw the trajectory of NYC. The prediction was that due to the predicted exponential growth, we would all be in your shoes by now. It's either going to take a lot longer, or maybe we dodged the bullet by getting out in front of things.
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