|
|
Post by matt@IAA on Mar 20, 2020 23:00:04 GMT -6
To be fair a lot of experts are useless.
The math on this one is not complicated.
|
|
|
|
Post by ragan on Mar 20, 2020 23:18:17 GMT -6
To be fair a lot of experts are useless. The math on this one is not complicated. I guess it depends on what we call an expert. If we're talking about pundits on cable news who get trotted out to fill the minutes with blather, you bet, absolutely useless. If we're talking about people who've dedicated their lives to studying and understanding something, like say the PhDs and grad students at UW who are right now working to figure out what the hell makes this virus tick and how we can impede it, then no, not useless. They're our best line of defense against things like this. The most ridiculous part of it is that this cult of anti-expertise will immediately call their mechanic buddy if something's up with their car. Why? Because he knows what the hell is up with cars. Something screwy with the pipes? Call a f*#$&n plumber, talk radio ain't gonna help you. Got a welding question? Your buddy Wayne down the street has been welding since he was a fetus and knows every damn thing there is to know. He's your guy. But something science-y? Well now...can't be trusting these docs and researchers. They're all in the tank for...for...something, not exactly sure what, but I just know they're a bunch of MORONS shilling for Big...something or other...let me just show you this amazing YouTube channel. Blow your f%$#n mind, bro. I'm out of gas for humoring it. |
|
|
|
Post by matt@IAA on Mar 20, 2020 23:20:12 GMT -6
I’m with you. Just sayin. I work with smart people. A lot of them are dumb. The problem is trust but verify assumes you can. Lots of people incapable of graphing an exponential / logistic curve, apparently.
|
|
|
|
Post by rowmat on Mar 20, 2020 23:24:13 GMT -6
It's not just about a non-understanding of the math. There has been a heavily-curated ideology of anti-expertise being pushed for the last couple of decades. Amplified a lot more lately of course. It has (successfully) gotten its adherents to attach their identities to the belief that the people with the most training and experience in a given field are really just crooked Elites TM and that the real knowledge can only be found on <insert mouthpiece du jour>. It's impenetrable in most cases. That seems to apply in most governments. The real experts, the epidemiologists, pathologists etc. were sounding alarms back in January. These specialists know all about exponential growth and how pandemics can spread. It's what they live and breathe.
But the politicians were listening to their crony 'advisors', corporate lobbyists and bankers who provide them with cushy highly paid board positions and advisory jobs when they leave politics.
Don't rock the boat or 'you' will cause a panic etc. Just tell the 'great unwashed' to wash their hands, wave the flag and keep going to the ball game and everything will be fine. Meanwhile valuable time is lost and soon that will translate into lost lives and a far bigger economic catastrophe (except for the 0.1%) than even the naysayers could have imagined.
George Carlin was right... "It's a big club and you (we) ain't in it!"
Just give them bread and circuses and let them eat cake.
|
|
|
|
Post by ragan on Mar 20, 2020 23:32:07 GMT -6
I’m with you. Just sayin. I work with smart people. A lot of them are dumb. The problem is trust but verify assumes you can. Lots of people incapable of graphing an exponential / logistic curve, apparently. Here's a public service announcement then I guess. www.desmos.com/calculator |
|
|
|
Post by drbill on Mar 20, 2020 23:33:58 GMT -6
OK....so.....How bout those Dodgers?? Eh....never mind.  |
|
|
|
Post by Tbone81 on Mar 21, 2020 11:55:17 GMT -6
Its true, few people understand exponential growth...but even fewer people understand exponential decay. Both are relevant to this discussion.
|
|
|
|
Post by johneppstein on Mar 21, 2020 12:45:19 GMT -6
Easy... MrHolmes is actually the only person making sense in all this. And he is 100% correct. The real problem is that even most medical personnel are clueless on the actual science of viruses. This is a complete media shit show. Ok well I’ll be sure to make a mental note that some random dude on the internet has allowed himself to become convinced that medical professionals are clueless about medical science. I'm of two minds about this.
It's quite true that the majority of medical professionals don't know nearly what the public thinks they do and mostly practice medecine on a "paint by numbers" basis.
That doesn't meand that everything you hear from the medical community is FOS - it isn't.
I do believe that this has been blown way out of proportion by various people of various political affiliations with an assortment of axes to grind for a numer of different reasons, both political and financial. There's a LOT of profiteering going on. And I'm convinced that the timing of this is no accident.
That doesn't mean that people shouldn't take reasonable precautions.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tbone81 on Mar 21, 2020 12:49:54 GMT -6
To be fair a lot of experts are useless. The math on this one is not complicated. I guess it depends on what we call an expert. If we're talking about pundits on cable news who get trotted out to fill the minutes with blather, you bet, absolutely useless. If we're talking about people who've dedicated their lives to studying and understanding something, like say the PhDs and grad students at UW who are right now working to figure out what the hell makes this virus tick and how we can impede it, then no, not useless. They're our best line of defense against things like this. The most ridiculous part of it is that this cult of anti-expertise will immediately call their mechanic buddy if something's up with their car. Why? Because he knows what the hell is up with cars. Something screwy with the pipes? Call a f*#$&n plumber, talk radio ain't gonna help you. Got a welding question? Your buddy Wayne down the street has been welding since he was a fetus and knows every damn thing there is to know. He's your guy. But something science-y? Well now...can't be trusting these docs and researchers. They're all in the tank for...for...something, not exactly sure what, but I just know they're a bunch of MORONS shilling for Big...something or other...let me just show you this amazing YouTube channel. Blow your f%$#n mind, bro. I'm out of gas for humoring it. To be fair a lot of people that are considered "experts" aren't. As an example, Neil Degrasse Tyson, Bill Nye, Dr Oz...are all considered experts by a surprisingly large amount of people. That's not to say they're not smart people. And I'm not even saying that their views (on climate change, medicine etc) are wrong per say. But "experts"? Well I guess it depends how loose you want to be with that word. The above names are really just spokesmen. Believe what they say or not, that's another matter, but they're not experts in the way many of their peers are.
To further complicate matters, with any given subject (particularly ones that involve policy changes) you have "experts" on both sides claiming different things. With political and corporate motivations muddying the waters, it's no wonder people are cynical and mistrusting.
Humans are interesting beasts. I've met people who are brilliant in one small slice of life, and complete dumb shits in every other part of life. There are incredibly intelligent people, with tons of actual expertise in a particular area, that have incredibly ignorant views in another. Example...if I need brain surgery Ben Carson would be my guy...if I needed advice about anything else...well...I'd look else where. This is even more true when smart people speak to matters outside their scope of practice. MD's are generally very smart people, but when it comes to finances they're statistically pretty poor at managing money. The lesson? Stay in your lane and be careful about making concrete statements outside your scope.
I work with some surgeons and MD's that have such an intricate understanding of human physiology and anatomy its crazy, but they lack almost all common sense, have a piss poor ability to effectively communicate with fellow people, and regularly get caught up in their own egos. (More about egos later). Some MD's are outright dangerous to work with...I mean total idiots. Which brings me to another relevant point. In my experience most people are mediocre at their jobs, a few are excellent, and more than a few are horrible. I've seen this hold true in every field I've ever come across and Dr's are no exception. (BTW, some of the MD's I work with are excellent, I don't want people to think that they're all morons, that's not the case at all).
So back to egos...Dr's, scientists, researchers, experts, are all susceptible to the same human failings as everyone else. They have biases and egos, they hold a mix of rational and irrational views, they are given to fear and insecurity...just like us all. Obviously, some suffer these traits more than others, but these are human conditions that every one deals with. So I can hardly blame people for being mistrustful, or holding irrational views themselves.
So Ragan, don't take me wrong here. I don't entirely dissagree with you, and totally see your point (it is a valid point). And I really like your posts and your insight. And I'm actually agreeing with you quite a bit in this post. But I guess I see things some what differently. To me, it seems that people are most likely to accept and agree with "evidence" that already supports their (mostly ill conceived) world views. And it has little to do with being "anti-science". To me its not a cult of anti-expertise. It's simply human nature. Hopefully we continue to evolve as humans.
One last thing I'd like to add that's a little off topic but might help people put some things in perspective. Medicine is a team sport. MD's are not experts on everything medical. How does a critical care doctor know what antibiotics to use? Or what a patient is infected with? They turn to the lab where a team of microbiologists and lab techs do the had work and figure it out. The same is true in alot of other areas. A good analogy I like to use is cinema. MD's are the Directors. Directors bring together the best DP's, location sound, camera men, actors, set designers, video editors etc. They bring all those pieces together and hopefully make a great movie. But the director isn't necessarily and expert in all of those areas (although the greatest of them have expertise in more than one of those fields). The same is true of Dr's. They need nurses, respiratory therapists, research papers, case studies, microbiologists, pharmacists, xray and imaging staff etc etc to effectively do their jobs. And even then, most of them are really only great in their one specialty. I'd hate to have an ER Dr manage me in the ICU. And I'd likewise never want a brain surgeon to treat me for a gun shot wound. I'd never want a research Dr to treat me medically for just about any aliment. Infectious disease Dr's generally suck at bedside care...and on and on.
So to everyone, take everything in context, don't be quick to judgement. Use common sense. Actually listen to what the other side says. Always, assume the person you're talking to can teach you something (even if they teach you what not to do). Be cautious and concerned but slow to panic. Spread hope, not fear.
Covid is a very real challenge and threat in many ways... and in many ways its lead to irrational knee jerk reactions and hysteria. Both can be true.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tbone81 on Mar 21, 2020 12:53:00 GMT -6
Ok well I’ll be sure to make a mental note that some random dude on the internet has allowed himself to become convinced that medical professionals are clueless about medical science. I'm of two minds about this.
It's quite true that the majority of medical professionals don't know nearly what the public thinks they do and mostly practice medecine on a "paint by numbers" basis.
That doesn't meand that everything you hear from the medical community is FOS - it isn't.
I do believe that this has been blown way out of proportion by various people of various political affiliations with an assortment of axes to grind for a numer of different reasons, both political and financial. There's a LOT of profiteering going on. And I'm convinced that the timing of this is no accident.
That doesn't mean that people shouldn't take reasonable precautions.
I couldn't agree more. (see my somewhat verbose post) |
|
|
|
Post by Tbone81 on Mar 21, 2020 12:55:08 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by johneppstein on Mar 21, 2020 13:02:42 GMT -6
To be fair a lot of experts are useless. The math on this one is not complicated. I guess it depends on what we call an expert. If we're talking about pundits on cable news who get trotted out to fill the minutes with blather, you bet, absolutely useless. If we're talking about people who've dedicated their lives to studying and understanding something, like say the PhDs and grad students at UW who are right now working to figure out what the hell makes this virus tick and how we can impede it, then no, not useless. They're our best line of defense against things like this. The most ridiculous part of it is that this cult of anti-expertise will immediately call their mechanic buddy if something's up with their car. Why? Because he knows what the hell is up with cars. Something screwy with the pipes? Call a f*#$&n plumber, talk radio ain't gonna help you. Got a welding question? Your buddy Wayne down the street has been welding since he was a fetus and knows every damn thing there is to know. He's your guy. But something science-y? Well now...can't be trusting these docs and researchers. They're all in the tank for...for...something, not exactly sure what, but I just know they're a bunch of MORONS shilling for Big...something or other...let me just show you this amazing YouTube channel. Blow your f%$#n mind, bro. I'm out of gas for humoring it. Unfortunately science has been raised to the status of a religion in this country and many parts of the world (but not so much as in the USA.)
My take is a bit different because I've grown up around scientists of various sorts - real ones - for the formative years of my life (Not only was I a university brat with many scientists being frequent house guests, my favorite uncle, Dr. Samuel Eppstein, was a researcher for Upjohn Pharmaceutical and his daughter Debbie ran her own biotech company in Salt Lake City.)
Which is why I view both extremes with a certain repugnance.
Do I trust the average doctor to know what's going on? No. Do I believe that there are a lot of very smart people working on this? Most definitely. Do I believe that those smart people are the ones we hear from most often? Not on your life. Do I believe that the ones we hear from have an axe to grind? You bet.
LIke I sasid, I don't believe the timing of this is a coincidence. I tend to not believe in coincidences.
I could give my own pet theory, buty I don't think this is the place.
|
|
|
|
Post by ragan on Mar 21, 2020 13:08:26 GMT -6
I guess it depends on what we call an expert. If we're talking about pundits on cable news who get trotted out to fill the minutes with blather, you bet, absolutely useless. If we're talking about people who've dedicated their lives to studying and understanding something, like say the PhDs and grad students at UW who are right now working to figure out what the hell makes this virus tick and how we can impede it, then no, not useless. They're our best line of defense against things like this. The most ridiculous part of it is that this cult of anti-expertise will immediately call their mechanic buddy if something's up with their car. Why? Because he knows what the hell is up with cars. Something screwy with the pipes? Call a f*#$&n plumber, talk radio ain't gonna help you. Got a welding question? Your buddy Wayne down the street has been welding since he was a fetus and knows every damn thing there is to know. He's your guy. But something science-y? Well now...can't be trusting these docs and researchers. They're all in the tank for...for...something, not exactly sure what, but I just know they're a bunch of MORONS shilling for Big...something or other...let me just show you this amazing YouTube channel. Blow your f%$#n mind, bro. I'm out of gas for humoring it. To be fair a lot of people that are considered "experts" aren't. As an example, Neil Degrasse Tyson, Bill Nye, Dr Oz...are all considered experts by a surprisingly large amount of people. That's not to say they're not smart people. And I'm not even saying that their views (on climate change, medicine etc) are wrong per say. But "experts"? Well I guess it depends how loose you want to be with that word. The above names are really just spokesmen. Believe what they say or not, that's another matter, but they're not experts in the way many of their peers are.
To further complicate matters, with any given subject (particularly ones that involve policy changes) you have "experts" on both sides claiming different things. With political and corporate motivations muddying the waters, it's no wonder people are cynical and mistrusting.
Humans are interesting beasts. I've met people who are brilliant in one small slice of life, and complete dumb shits in every other part of life. There are incredibly intelligent people, with tons of actual expertise in a particular area, that have incredibly ignorant views in another. Example...if I need brain surgery Ben Carson would be my guy...if I needed advice about anything else...well...I'd look else where. This is even more true when smart people speak to matters outside their scope of practice. MD's are generally very smart people, but when it comes to finances they're statistically pretty poor at managing money. The lesson? Stay in your lane and be careful about making concrete statements outside your scope.
I work with some surgeons and MD's that have such an intricate understanding of human physiology and anatomy its crazy, but they lack almost all common sense, have a piss poor ability to effectively communicate with fellow people, and regularly get caught up in their own egos. (More about egos later). Some MD's are outright dangerous to work with...I mean total idiots. Which brings me to another relevant point. In my experience most people are mediocre at their jobs, a few are excellent, and more than a few are horrible. I've seen this hold true in every field I've ever come across and Dr's are no exception. (BTW, some of the MD's I work with are excellent, I don't want people to think that they're all morons, that's not the case at all).
So back to egos...Dr's, scientists, researchers, experts, are all susceptible to the same human failings as everyone else. They have biases and egos, they hold a mix of rational and irrational views, they are given to fear and insecurity...just like us all. Obviously, some suffer these traits more than others, but these are human conditions that every one deals with. So I can hardly blame people for being mistrustful, or holding irrational views themselves.
So Ragan, don't take me wrong here. I don't entirely dissagree with you, and totally see your point (it is a valid point). And I really like your posts and your insight. And I'm actually agreeing with you quite a bit in this post. But I guess I see things some what differently. To me, it seems that people are most likely to accept and agree with "evidence" that already supports their (mostly ill conceived) world views. And it has little to do with being "anti-science". To me its not a cult of anti-expertise. It's simply human nature. Hopefully we continue to evolve as humans.
One last thing I'd like to add that's a little off topic but might help people put some things in perspective. Medicine is a team sport. MD's are not experts on everything medical. How does a critical care doctor know what antibiotics to use? Or what a patient is infected with? They turn to the lab where a team of microbiologists and lab techs do the had work and figure it out. The same is true in alot of other areas. A good analogy I like to use is cinema. MD's are the Directors. Directors bring together the best DP's, location sound, camera men, actors, set designers, video editors etc. They bring all those pieces together and hopefully make a great movie. But the director isn't necessarily and expert in all of those areas (although the greatest of them have expertise in more than one of those fields). The same is true of Dr's. They need nurses, respiratory therapists, research papers, case studies, microbiologists, pharmacists, xray and imaging staff etc etc to effectively do their jobs. And even then, most of them are really only great in their one specialty. I'd hate to have an ER Dr manage me in the ICU. And I'd likewise never want a brain surgeon to treat me for a gun shot wound. I'd never want a research Dr to treat me medically for just about any aliment. Infectious disease Dr's generally suck at bedside care...and on and on.
So to everyone, take everything in context, don't be quick to judgement. Use common sense. Actually listen to what the other side says. Always, assume the person you're talking to can teach you something (even if they teach you what not to do). Be cautious and concerned but slow to panic. Spread hope, not fear.
Covid is a very real challenge and threat in many ways... and in many ways its lead to irrational knee jerk reactions and hysteria. Both can be true.
Great post. Yes of course there are layers upon layers of nuance. And as you say at the end (which I have said in this thread as well) COVID-19 being a serious threat and people behaving hysterically are in no way mutual exclusive. They’re both true. One thing to note, the ‘experts’ you mention are precisely the kind I referenced in my post. People whose living is no longer made in their field of training, but rather in being a celebrity. Doesn’t negate their training or knowledge but it is a different paradigm they exist in and one with inherently different incentives/motivations. |
|
|
|
Post by johneppstein on Mar 21, 2020 13:11:39 GMT -6
It most certainly does. And such "emergency powers" have a way of hanging on long after the crisis that spawned them has passed.
And I want to emphasize what I said about not believing in coincidence.
What does the DOJ know about medicine? I believe the correct answer would be NOTHING.
|
|
|
|
Post by EmRR on Mar 21, 2020 14:36:21 GMT -6
I came across two different analogies for exponential growth that can be worth quoting, one seemingly benign, the other immediately alarming.
One lily pad on a pond that replicates daily, pond will take 48 days to be completely covered. Most people can't answer correctly that it's half covered on day 47. More important, you still don't see it coming on day 40.
A friend mentioned diesel engines; apparently if they gain access to as much fuel and air as they can take in, they'll double in RPM's once per second. Not many seconds before they explode, hardly enough to get out of the way if you're working on one and act immediately. He's seen scars on a cinder block wall in a shop where it's happened.
Feel free to poke holes in those.....I'm not really a scientist.....
|
|
|
|
Post by Tbone81 on Mar 21, 2020 15:58:47 GMT -6
I came across two different analogies for exponential growth that can be worth quoting, one seemingly benign, the other immediately alarming. One lily pad on a pond that replicates daily, pond will take 48 days to be completely covered. Most people can't answer correctly that it's half covered on day 47. More important, you still don't see it coming on day 40. A friend mentioned diesel engines; apparently if they gain access to as much fuel and air as they can take in, they'll double in RPM's once per second. Not many seconds before they explode, hardly enough to get out of the way if you're working on one and act immediately. He's seen scars on a cinder block wall in a shop where it's happened. Feel free to poke holes in those.....I'm not really a scientist..... The thing about exponential growth is it assumes no natural restraints which is never the case. Not with bacteria, viruses or anything else I can think of. The simple fact that the weather is getting warmer will restrain and killl the virus, to a degree. I’m not saying it couldn’t be catastrophic, just that some of those analogies need to be taken in stride. Take your Lilly pad example. What we’ve seen in nature, especially when it comes to evolution on the micro scale, is that an imbalance in an ecosystem can lead to the exponential growth of an organism. But at a certain point that very same organism will overwhelm itself and exponentially die off. I don’t know shit about lilly pads, but in that example they might cover the whole pond, but would then over consume their resources and exponentially die off. That is a generalization, so take it as such, but so are those examples. Obviously throughout that process a lot of harm can be done. But with covid, when u look at how few people have been tested, it’s very likely that we’re much farther along that exponentially curve than we know. That would be a good thing because it would mean the lethality of the virus is much lower than thought. |
|
|
|
Post by matt@IAA on Mar 21, 2020 16:38:57 GMT -6
We’d expect to eventually sequence a virus with a ton of novel mutations if we had a massive stealth outbreak. Til that happens I don’t think that’s the case.
There are likely a high number of asymptomatic or subclinical carriers. Most of the epidemiological studies are saying 0.5-1% infection fatality ratio, which includes those numbers.
|
|
|
|
Post by drbill on Mar 21, 2020 19:14:46 GMT -6
Most of the epidemiological studies are saying 0.5-1% infection fatality ratio, which includes those numbers. Hey dogears! Do you know (and I'm betting you ARE the guy that knows )what the infection fatality ratio stats are for the "normal" flu on any given random year? Thx. OK. I actually got them myself. LOL. Traditional flu is around 0.1%. So C-19 is about 5-10X's worse than what we fight every year. At that point, I'm not sure the increased risk of death is equivalent to the panic and stress that it's caused. Maybe, maybe not. Not sure it's worth cratering the entire world economy over either as that will have untold horrible consequences as well. But it's all speculation until this shakes out and is over and done with. |
|
|
|
Post by matt@IAA on Mar 21, 2020 19:19:03 GMT -6
Varies from year to year. 0.1% is the usual number given by the CDC.
|
|
|
|
Post by drbill on Mar 21, 2020 19:22:01 GMT -6
Varies from year to year. 0.1% is the usual number given by the CDC. Ha! Thanks. You beat me to my edit. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2020 19:22:27 GMT -6
We’d expect to eventually sequence a virus with a ton of novel mutations if we had a massive stealth outbreak. Til that happens I don’t think that’s the case. There are likely a high number of asymptomatic or subclinical carriers. Most of the epidemiological studies are saying 0.5-1% infection fatality ratio, which includes those numbers. OK, that's the simple estimation math ... let's make some assumptions. Infected people until the virus is under control ~80%, let's assume 0.5% fatality. This highly depends on the number of intensive care beds, too ... Germany 0.5% of 64,000,000=~320,000 US 0.5% of 264,000,000=~1,320,000 These are quite shocking numbers, they are a very rough estimate, but if the assumptions are half in the ball park, we have at least the magnitude of deadly infections in our countries. Depending on many factors, death rate numbers might easily differ, say 5x or more higher or lower. Still - quite shocking numbers no matter what. Low percentages matter in big countries. I guess in the meantime there is only the one problem to resolve: How to lock down countries to prevent total collapsing of the healthcare systems. I am pretty happy not to live in Italy in the moment, where triage might be already the only way to save at least some lives. My town has a very low infection rate for it's size right now, but cuts into civil rights are already severe and will most probably even more for some periods of time in the next months at least. Quite a lot of quarantine cases around the city though. Around 1% of people in my area already in quarantine, because all families that had children in a specific school have been taken in quarantine preventively ... And people are quite careful and solidaric in holding social distance in this city. Still not enough. No private happenings with more than 5 people (high penalties when disregarded), no official happenings at all, no school or kindergarten, no sports, no restaurants, no shops open except system relevant like postal service, supermarket with food, banking etc... city government shut down to home office and telephone line except rare core requirements, no public opening at all. No leaving of the federal state, no tourism traveling, no hotels etc.... Quite drastic cuts into the right, but it can and most probably will come even worse with curfews, that are already active in some cities in the south of the country... This all is far from "take it easy". But most probably there is no other way to minimize death rates. |
|
|
|
Post by Tbone81 on Mar 21, 2020 19:36:47 GMT -6
We’d expect to eventually sequence a virus with a ton of novel mutations if we had a massive stealth outbreak. Til that happens I don’t think that’s the case. There are likely a high number of asymptomatic or subclinical carriers. Most of the epidemiological studies are saying 0.5-1% infection fatality ratio, which includes those numbers. OK, that's the simple estimation math ... let's make some assumptions. Infected people until the virus is under control ~80%, let's assume 0.5% fatality. This highly depends on the number of intensive care beds, too ... Germany 0.5% of 64,000,000=~320,000 US 0.5% of 264,000,000=~1,320,000 These are quite shocking numbers, they are a very rough estimate, but if the assumptions are half in the ball park, we have at least the magnitude of deadly infections in our countries. Depending on many factors, death rate numbers might easily differ, say 5x or more higher or lower. Still - quite shocking numbers no matter what. Low percentages matter in big countries. I guess in the meantime there is only the one problem to resolve: How to lock down countries to prevent total collapsing of the healthcare systems. I am pretty happy not to live in Italy in the moment, where triage might be already the only way to save at least some lives. My town has a very low infection rate for it's size right now, but cuts into civil rights are already severe and will most probably even more for some periods of time in the next months at least. Quite a lot of quarantine cases around the city though. Around 1% of people in my area already in quarantine, because all families that had children in a specific school have been taken in quarantine preventively ... And people are quite careful and solidaric in holding social distance in this city. Still not enough. No private happenings with more than 5 people (high penalties when disregarded), no official happenings at all, no school or kindergarten, no sports, no restaurants, no shops open except system relevant like postal service, supermarket with food, banking etc... city government shut down to home office and telephone line except rare core requirements, no public opening at all. No leaving of the federal state, no tourism traveling, no hotels etc.... Quite drastic cuts into the right, but it can and most probably will come even worse with curfews, that are already active in some cities in the south of the country... This all is far from "take it easy". But most probably there is no other way to minimize death rates. Your numbers depend on a static set of variatables. Those death rates depend on the average age of a countries population, the state of its health care system, and the speed at which the disease spreads, not to mention environmental factors like the weather. Also, several treatments are rapidly being found to be greatly effective. So the real rate can only be estimate when taking into account those dynamic factors. The situation is rapidly changing as more data comes in, as we get better treatments, and as more testing becomes available. We won’t really know until the dust settles.. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2020 19:50:06 GMT -6
Of course this was the most simple estimation math possible to give at least a magnitude, that can give a picture of how serious the situation is. Of course, the real numbers in the end can and will differ from those, as I already wrote. But how bad it can come when only a short period of time there is not enough effort to fight new infections, can be seen in Italy now, the results can differ dramaticly.
|
|
|
|
Post by drbill on Mar 21, 2020 19:59:57 GMT -6
I think everyone on the planet knows this is serious. Honestly, no disrespect to anyone trying to wrap their heads around this or grapple with the (obvious) horrific consequences - NUMBERS - are just a guess at this point. And unfortunately, it's a guess that if often taken so out of context that it inflames and terrifies people. I'd love it if there was more faith and optimism in the world - and less numbers - coupled with common sense and prevention of course.
|
|
|
|
Post by matt@IAA on Mar 21, 2020 20:06:25 GMT -6
I know it’s tempting to compare it to the flu, but there are some differences. There is some broad immunity to the flu in the population from yearly exposure. All of us have some flu antibodies, and it’s been going around for so many centuries there’s a decent chunk of people who just don’t get it. Add to that the annual vaccine and suddenly you think... wow... how bad would it be without those things?
Well, this is like that. Maybe one case or a thousand is no big deal. But... man, when was the last time we saw the flu just drop kick the healthcare system of a G8 country like it was nothing? Italy, especially northern Italy, isn’t like a backwater.
I keep seeing articles saying, half of the total cases were in the last week. Yeah. That’s how it works. Whatever the doubling time, half of the cases will be from that. When you double 2 or 10, ok. But when you double 2,000? 5,000?
The 2009 swine flu was an novel influenza a strain, H1N1. 24% of the whole world got it. Super mild, only 0.02% fatality. This seems to be more infectious than that. This is a serious deal.
|
|
