Covid-19 industry update link at Pollstar

I'm not sure how you guys are doing over there but the situation is catastrophic over here in the EU.
I'm working in France right now and the government has banned gatherings of 1000 people or more so all my friends working in the live industry are hit really hard.
All my upcoming gigs have been canceled , everything for the next 3 months canceled !
Trying to stay positive but man it's gonna be tough, was thinking about coming back stateside a bit but then I don't want to contaminate my family, I don't have the virus but living in Paris, with the amount of people I see everyday, I'm gonna err on the side of caution.

johneppstein may be right, and at least there you are further along the curve. If you come over here you're just going back to an earlier part of the curve. The same measures you're seeing there are coming here quickly. All my live event work for the spring has been canceled, something like 35 full booking days.

I work in healthcare, specifically critical care for adults, pediatrics and neonates.  Let me assure you that the precautions being taken are above and beyond what is needed.  Measles, Chicken Pox, TB, Bacterial Meningitis...all things that are way worse than COVID, yet handled with much less precautions. Even influenza is in many cases worse.  What we're experiencing right now is nothing short of hysteria.  

You're right that most people are not being tested, that's due to availability of the test kits and also due to the fact that most people experience mild symptoms and simply need to self quarantine for a time and then they're fine.  It's part of triage for any disaster.  

The overly cautious precautions that we're required to take has, in fact, caused a severe shortage of healthcare workers as we keep getting remanded to self quarantine for getting exposed.  At this rate we'll be critically short of staff in a very short time.  

To put the whole thing in perspective, this current flu season there were, I believe, 26 million people infected, and 25,000 deaths.  We (as a society) didn't act this way with H1N1 (which was waaaayy worse), Swine Flu, Bird Flu, SARS etc.  

Yeah, not buying it.  You don't see exponential growth until it's past critical mass, and that looks to be coming soon if not already past.  These reports out of the bad parts of Italy (not huge numbers), if to be believed, suggest pure triage with the healthcare system totally overwhelmed.  Sure, give it 2 months, and it'll all be back to normal once the living have recovered from the wave.  I can't say I have ever known anyone to die form the flu, and with the mortality estimate ranges on this, we will ALL know SOMEONE who dies in this.  I know a hell of a lot of people over 70 and 80.   I'm not too concerned for my own health, yet am glad the wife and I work from home and my studio location.  We can electively self isolate very easily, and plan to be ready to do so.  

I do see many of your points, but isn't overly cautious better than oblivious?  Oblivious is what I'm seeing a lot of amongst acquaintances.  

Yes better cautious than not, but cautious to the point of crippling the healthcare system results in more deaths, not fewer.  There are actually some prelim reports that the mortality rate may now be coming down.  That may just be a statistical anomaly as they confirm more cases, but also because we have a better handle on how to treat it.  

I've seen people die from influenza quite often.  It's very common.  But since no one seems to believe me, here ya go: www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
Between 12,000-60,000 influenza deaths each year, in the US alone, since 2010.

Fair enough, I can see how some of my comments are somewhat vague and can be interpreted differently then I meant.  I'm speaking out of frustration and am more than a little jadded so I probably wasn't specific enough and probably came off wrong. By "hysteria" I meant more that the public reaction, media reporting, hording of toilet paper, shortage of hospital masks (both n95 rated and normal surgical masks) due to theft and supply shortages, and even cancelling events like SXSW is just over kill.  By daughter wasn't allowed to high-five her teammates at her volleyball tournament...but they're all touching the same ball...so...yeah...measures like that do nothing.   

The response in the healthcare field has been overzealous.  Up until, literally hours ago, we were required to undergo isolation measure that until now have only been used for Ebola.  We're running out of negative pressure rooms because the CDC is recommending Airborne Precautions, but best guess at this point is that its spread through Aerosolized Droplets.  If we are exposed to the virus (and many of us have been) its mandatory 14 day self-quarantine.  We're running out of critical care hospital staff because of it. 

The mortality rate seems to be coming down, not growing.  Its was reported to be about 2.5% in China, but any numbers coming from China are suspect for a variety of reasons and not necessarily representative of the virus as a whole.  The New England Journal of Medicine estimates the mortality at around 1.4%.  Keeping in mind that in many countries, like the US, only the sickest people are even tested for the virus and the actual mortality rate is very likely much lower than that.

As to my profession, I'm a respiratory therapist.  I'm a tier one healthcare worker, meaning I'm first in line to be exposed to COVID and to treat those with COVID in the Hospital setting.  I work in Critical Care.  I'm one of the few in my department cross trained in all areas, I work in CICU, ICU, NICU, PICU etc.  I've worked in level one trauma centers, nationally recognized medical centers and small community hospitals.  Most all of my patients are fighting for their lives.  I've cared for countless people suffering from horrible diseases.  I've watched more people die than I can count.  I've done CPR more times than I can count.  When someone is on life support, I'm there managing the ventilator.  In fact I'm there for every Code Blue emergency in the hospital.  I'm relied upon by Dr's to educate them to Pulmonary Disease processes and to help direct the care of critically ill people. 

Thats not say that I know everything, I certainly dont.  And critical care medicine is a team sport, we all help and rely on each other.  So, I'm not an epidemiologist either, but I do get briefings directly from our Infectious Disease MD's.  A lot of the precautions taken were great, and needed.  Earlier screening of people traveling from Asia would have been great.  Being concerned is well justified.  But the general response, and fear, I see in the community, and in some areas the Hospital, is not justified.  That's my experience.  Everyone is welcome to their own opinion.  

And I apologize if I come off argumentative, it's not my intention at all.  

 

Lot's of info there. I found the link here if anyone is interested. I think the fact that it is so much more deadly for our elderly population, many of whom live in clusters, speaks to how important it is to try and contain it or at least slow it down.  Hysteria is borne of lacking and/or misinformation.  Knowledge transparency, and application of good practice by governments world-wide are the keys.

Thanks for all the info guys. The tour I'm currently on was just postponed, found out right before we went on stage for what became our last show tonite in Chicago. To be honest it was starting to become obvious it was going to happen after all the festival cancellations and seeing the crowd numbers become less than what the ticket sales were.

A gabillion years ago, in a galaxy far, far, away, I played a gig at The Cave in Chapel Hill.  Like 1984 or 85.  

The Cat’s Cradle was around way back then too.  I hope things get back normal soon.  

That little duo I played with at the Cave was called Nowhere Fast.  It was me and the guy I grew up learning how to play the guitar with.    I have been in a lot of other bands over the years that have all fizzled out due to not being willing to starve to death.  My biggest success is being able to say I played in a band out of Greenville NC in the late 80s and early 90s called Old Habits that used to out draw Hootie and the Blowfish when first they started coming around town.   I wonder whatever became of those guys.   🤔🤣.   

Chapel Hill is a great place.  I live in Dallas now and play and record mostly for fun.   I am appreciative of all the time that those of you who still fight the good fight take up with me. 

You should then look at the impact graphs in the projection studies.  Several linked in the other thread.